A friend of Off The Bench drops some serious football knowledge in this extensive San Francisco 49ers NFL draft preview.
Overview:
If you were not aware of it, the 49ers came up just short of winning the franchise’s 6th Vince Lombardi Trophy. Many people will look back at the last series and question play calling and claim that the game was lost in that moment, but it wasn’t. The 49ers lost that game in the first half. Flacco was great, Boldin was physical, tough, and displayed his great hands. The Ravens took advantage of opportunities and the 49ers couldn’t rebound from a sub par first half. They battled and showed their toughness in the 2nd half by making plays and demonstrating their explosive potential, but they came up just short.
The 49ers are a franchise at the top of the NFL. They will get better, and more importantly must continue to get better, because the Seahawks, Packers, Patriots, Broncos, Ravens, Giants, and Texans are not standing by idle. They have a brilliant young General Manager in Trent Baalke. He has a plan, a vision of how he is going to keep the 49ers as Super Bowl contenders year in and year out and he will not budge. If past years serve as an example, then trust in Baalke. They have a great head coach, who is just as accomplished in his ability to be a leader of men, as he is in being quirky, goofy, and brilliant at the same time. Add in coordinators like Greg Roman and Vic Fangio, plus the rest of the coaching staff, and you have some of the most skilled teachers and creative football minds working together to maximize a young, talented, deep roster, and develop schemes and game plans that stay a step ahead of the competition.
Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is a determined young man who plays with a chip on his shoulder–with maybe, probably, the best arm in the NFL (accuracy included), sprinters speed, and the mental capacity to execute a playbook and make the proper reads. It may not be long before he is the best quarterback in football.
Frank Gore may be aging, but his play does not show any signs of decline. He was as good this past year as he has been at any point in career, plus the Niners can give him some plays off because of his two ultra talented backups. Lamichael James is a touchdown waiting to happen. With explosive speed, great vision, and good hands, James can line up all over the field, similar to Darren Sproles. I’m guessing you will see more of him this upcoming year. Kendall Hunter is coming off an Achilles injury, but he is on pace to be in camp when it starts. Will he regain his pre-injury form? Hopefully, because if he does, the Niners have a starter-quality running back to spell Gore.
The receiving corps is very good and could be even more dangerous if Kyle Williams and Mario Manningham can bounce back from injuries. Williams should be ready for week 1, but Manningham realistically won’t be back until sometime during the middle of the season. Michael Crabtree is reaching his potential of being a true #1 receiver. Vernon Davis is one of the biggest matchup nightmares in the game and the addition of the dependable and aforementioned Anquan Boldin makes the Niners passing game a challenge to stop for any defense.
Then, you get to the core of the offense: the best O-line in football. Joe Staley is a stud of a left tackle who’s athletisicm (he entered college as a tight end) and mean streak serve him well in both the running game and in pass protection. Opposite him is the recently extended Anthony Davis. Davis is young, tough, and talented, and is in the conversation as the best right tackle in football. In the middle, they have the seasoned veteran Jonathan Goodwin at center. Flanking him are Mike Iupati, a bulldozer of a man at left guard, and Alex Boone the 6’8”, 310lb behemoth who has settled in as a dominant run blocker. The offense did loose their swiss army knife of a tight end in Delanie Walker. He will be missed, but he can be replaced.
The Niners defense is the best in the game and one of the best in recent memory. It all starts up front with Justin Smith, when he is healthy, drawing double teams, and wreaking havoc on opposing offenses. He will get some added help from former 1st round pick Glenn Dorsey who was acquired this off-season in addition to returners Ray McDonald and Ian Williams. My gut tells me that Harbaugh and Baalke think that Williams is ready to be a contributor at the nose tackle position. The loss of Issac Sopoaga to the Eagles and Ricky Jean Francois to the Colts will need to be addressed in the draft, but considering they only played about 30 percent of the snaps last season, that should not be hard given the depth of the defensive line in this year’s draft.
Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman are the best middle linebacker tandem in the league. They are great tacklers who pursue the football with a rabid intensity from sideline to sideline. Not to mention they never come off the field because they can both cover. Aldon Smith is a young pass rushing phenom who is turning into a complete linebacker. Then there is one of the most underrated players in the NFL, Ahmad Brooks. He is stout against the run, can rush the passer, and has a knack for making big plays.
The secondary is solid, but was the weakest link of the defensive unit. Losing hard hitting, play making free safety Dashon Goldson to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will hurt, but the Niners simply could not afford to retain him. Donte Whitner is the leader of the secondary and provides a physical presence in the run game, but late in the season was a liability in pass coverage. They also signed Craig Dahl to add depth at safety, but it is my guess that he is there to be a special teams ace rather than an every down safety. The corners are not spectacular, but together they are a versatile, quality group. Carlos Rogers took a step back last year and Chris Culliver is young and ultra talented on the field, but has been an issue off it. Tarell Brown is a very good #2 corner who is coming into who is contract year. His play will likely determine if the Niners choose to retain him after the season. The signing of Nnamdi Asomugha is the potential game changer. He was awful for the Eagles, but is only two years out from being the only corner back in the conversation with Darrelle Revis. He fits the Niners style at corner. He is a big, physical boundary corner who excels in man coverage. If he can return to 90% of his old form the Niners are all of a sudden a legit secondary.
On special teams they have Pro Bowl punter Andy Lee and a new dependable, veteran Kicker in Phil Dawson. Lee may be the best punter in football and has the ability to flip the field on every punt. Dawson is a proven veteran, who has kicked in tough conditions and is one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history. The addition of Dan Skuta, Craig Dahl, and Marlon Moore to the Tony Montana Squad should help improve special teams play. Lamichael James is an electric kick returner who had several big returns throughout the season. The big question will be, who will return punts? Marlon Moore? Lamichael James? Or will they address it in the draft.
The 49ers may have the best roster in the NFL and with 13 picks in this years draft they have the ammunition to add starting talent, depth, and replacements for the futures.
The Draft Strategy:
With 13 picks in the draft the Niners have tons of options. They can move up in the first round to grab a player they are in love with. They can trade up or down in the 2-5 rounds to grab players for this year or acquire picks for next years draft. Baalke moved up to select Anthony Davis and wheeled and dealed last year to acquire picks for this years draft. The Niners believe in the draft process and value it above all. So, don’t be surprised if the Niners are making moves throughout all three days of the draft.
Baalke recently pointed out that good teams draft for need 2 or 3 years ahead of time. Do the Niners have needs for the upcoming season? Yes. But they are also in the position to take best player available with each pick, especially considering the depth of this year’s draft, specifically their positions of need. Baalke and the coaching staff have a plan, they may not give any details away, but they have a plan. They understand their system and what players can and will thrive in it. They are also in a great position to a player who is a “project”…Margus Hunt? They have a great core and will look to stock pile talent all over the field. The Niners firmly believe in competition and there is no better way to increase competition then by adding talent.
The Niners will make moves on draft day and my guess they will move up and down in the middle rounds to target certain players and add middle round picks for next year. The fact of the matter is they do not have room for 13 rookies.
There is no telling what the Niners will and can do with this draft. Baalke and Harbaugh will not give anything away and rightfully so. They are sure to shake up the draft via trade. They will not only draft to improve this year’s team, but draft to ensure the future success of the Niners organization. Needless to say, as a Niners fan, this years draft will be exciting.
Teams Needs:
DE
DT
S
TE
CB
OLB/Passing Rushing depth
MLB depth
WR
Trade Scenarios:
The Niners have 13 selections in this years draft, but no room for 13 players. They have a stacked roster that is going to hard for any rookie takent in the 6th or 7th rounds to crack even the practice squad. The solution is to trade up and down to acquire players they have targeted and/or trade picks to acquire picks for next year. Everyone talks about Defensive Line and Safety. Those are needs, but I do not expect the Niners to reach for need. I could see them reaching for a guy they really like.
Trade Scenario #1 – There have been rumblings that the Niners are looking to trade up into the 13-15 slot. That would most likely cost them their 31st and 34th picks of the draft or 31, 61, 237, and a pick for 2014. If they do this, there are only three players I can see them targeting.
1.) Tavon Austin (WR) West Virginia
2.) Sheldon Richardson (DT) Missouri
3.) Kenny Vaccaro (S) Texas
This trade happens only if they are certain about a player. There is a ton of depth and quality at Safety, so I believe that Vaccaro is not in the mix. They should be able to acquire a NFL ready safety in round 2 or 3 (D.J. Swearinger, Philip Thomas, Shamarko Thomas). Richardson is a stud. He has the size, agility, and motor to play inside and outside on the defensive line in the 3-4 scheme. He could also be the replacement for Justin Smith. Not to mention they have had pretty good luck with Missouri guys lately.
The Pick: Tavon Austin (WR) West Virginia
Austin is a matchup nightmare who will mainly line up in the slot, but has the ability to lineup in the backfield in the pistol formation. He would add another dangerous weapon for Kaepernick and will take coverage away Davis over the middle and Crabtree on the outside. Put Kaepernick, Boldin, Crabtree, Davis, James, Gore, and Austin on the field at the same time, try and stop that.
Trade Scenario #2…
They stay put at 31, but trade down into the 2nd round or beginning of the 3rd round giving up their 34th and gaining a 2014 pick.
Trade Scenario #3…
They package picks in the middle rounds this year for 2nd-3rd picks in 2014.
The Draft:
If they stay put at 31…
The Pick: Datone Jones (DT/DE) UCLA
Jones is a versatile defensive lineman who can line up at multiple spots. With added weight and coaching he could be a fantastic 3-4 defensive lineman. With tutoring from Tomasula and The Cowboy, the skies the limit. He could also provide immediate push up the middle in pass rush situations.
Alternate Pick #1: Kawann Short (DT) Purdue – Dominated games, despite being the focus of offenses. He fits nice at the NT tackle spot, with enough burst to provide push in pass rush situations.
Alternate Pick #2: Zach Ertz (TE) Stanford – Ertz would fill a need and is ready to contribute today. The Niners have been fond of 2 TE sets in the past, but I have a feeling they are moving away from that philosophy with Kaepernick at QB. The TE class is deep and talented, but if the Niners are looking to stick to there 2 TE sets Ertz would make sense here.
If they fall…
Jonathan Cyprien (S) FIU – Cyprien was once considered a 2nd round pick, he is now in the conversation to go in the 20’s to a safety needy team (Bengals, Rams, or even the Cowboys). If he falls to 31, I would not be surprised to see him in a Niner uniform.
Tank Carradine (DE) Florida State – Carradine is an absolute beast, who ran a 4.7 40 130 days off of ACL surgery. He has the physical tools to go along with great production at FSU. He would be another weapon for the Niners up front.
Desmond Trufant (CB) Washington/Xavier Rhodes (CB) Florida State/D.J Hayden (CB) Houston– The roster may look to be set at corner for the season, but Baalke knows you have to have foresight. Rogers is on the decline and Brown is a free agent after the season. Grabbing a talented CB here would make sense.
Surprise Pick…
Cordarrelle Patterson (WR) Tennessee: He has been sliding a bit recently, even after being a Top 10 lock a month ago. He has everything you want in a receiver; hands, size, speed, and play making ability. Easily the most talented receiver in the draft and its not close, just watch some video. He may be too talented to pass up if he falls this far.
Round 2: Pick 34
The Pick: Jesse Williams (DT) Alabama
He fits nicely in the Niners scheme. He is a high motor nose tackle that can anchor the line and keep blockers off of Willis and Bowman. He comes from a great program and is ready to contribute immediately. If he loses a few pounds, he could also move outside to the DE spot if needed.
Alternate Pick #1: Jamar Taylor (CB) Boise State – He could sneak into the first round. He has been a consistent performer with a good track record. He has the size and speed (sub 4.4) scouts look for and the flexibility to play press coverage or zone.
Alternate Pick #2: Eric Reid (S) LSU – Reid is a big safety with speed. He is very good against the run and can punish receivers over the middle. He is raw in coverage, but in terms of side, speed, and strength he may be the best in the draft.
Round 2 Pick 61:
The Pick: Philip Thomas (S) Fresno State – Thomas is a ball hawk with range. The kid just makes plays, whether it is in coverage over the top, in the box run defense, or off the corner blitzing. After Cyprien, he is my favorite safety and could be a steal in the 2nd round. Fluid in coverage and made a ton of plays on the ball throughout his college career. A Bay Area guy, whom I am sure the Niners scouts, coaches, and front office have seen a ton of.
Alternate Pick #1 – D.J. Swearinger (S) South Carolina – A versatile defensive back that can play both safety positions. A physical player, who can deliver the big hit, reminds me some of the departed Dashon Goldshon. He is ready to contribute right away.
Alternate Pick #2 – Aaron Dobson (WR) Marshall – Dobson is a big, physical wideout (6’3”, 210lbs) with great balls skills and strong hands. He has the speed to break a big play and the physicality to overwhelm cornerbacks. The ingredients are there for him to become a very good WR in the NFL.
If he falls…
Margus Hunt (DE) SMU – A physical freak, with limited football experience, but has the potential to be a monster as a DE in a 3-4 scheme. He needs to be coached up and who better than Tomasula. Some have him in the first round, but if he falls to this spot, which he very well could, the Niners might pounce.
Round 3 Pick 74
The Pick: Tyrann Mathieu (CB) LSU
Mathieu has red flags, but the locker room and coaching staff could be the best thing to happen to Mathieu. He is a playmaker. He could be a great slot CB and would sure up the punt return game. I would be very happy if he ended up a Niner. This may be a little high, but you reach for talent and he is not short in that category.
Alternate Pick #1 – Gavin Escobar (TE) San Diego State– Escobar has the basketball background and great hands that seems to be what teams are looking for in a TE these days. He would be a nice compliment to Davis and could be a starter a few years down the road. He is too big for safeties and to fast for linebackers down the seam.
Alternate Pick #2 – David Amerson (DB) NC State – Amerson is a big corner, who has experience as a safety. A noted ball hawk, but has questions marks in coverage concerning discipline. He has the physical tools be match up with big WR’s. Some have him much higher than this, but I think he is a 3rd round prospect that could be available here.
Alternate Pick #3 – Brandon Williams (DT) Missouri Southern State – Williams is a small school product, who has the strength and quickness to be a factor on the defensive line. He will need to adjust to the playing level, but the size, strength, and quickness are there to groom.
3rd Round Pick 93
The Pick: Da’Rick Rodgers (WR) Tennesee Tech – Rodgers has some off-field issues, but also the measurables to be a #1 WR. He has the size (6’2” 215lbs) to play outside, a 39.5 inch vertical, and ran a solid 4.5 40. With the strong locker room the Niners have, they may be willing to take a risk on such a talented player. He has as much ability as any WR in the draft and dominated the SEC before he was dismissed from Tennessee.
Alternate Pick #1 – Ryan Swope (WR) Texas A&M – Swope is an explosive playmaker, with good size. Ran 4.35 at the combine to along with reliable hands and production. Would be a nice consolation prize if they can’t get their hands on Austin.
Alternate Pick #2 – Barrett Jones (C) Alabama – Jones is a versatile lineman who has played Center, Guard, Tackle who would provide flexibility in jumbo packages and serve as a replacement in case of injury. Should eventually slide in as a starting center. The Niners will be losing Jonathan Goodwin after the season and will need a replacement. It’s still up in the air if the future center is on the roster in Dan Kilgore or Joe Looney.
4th Round Pick 128
The Pick: Marcus Lattimore (RB) South Carolina
Baalke will draft into strength. Running back is a deep position for the Niners. Taking a 4th round flyer on Lattimore could pay huge dividends a few years from now. He has all the qualities of a feature back, much like Frank Gore who also battled knee injuries in college. That pick turned out pretty well I would say.
Alternate Pick #1 – Jordan Reed (TE) Florida – He reminds me of Delanie Walker. He has played several positions in college, including quarterback. A very smooth athlete and has great hands. Undersized, much like Walker, but could be the new swiss army knife in the Niners offense.
Alternate Pick #2 – Nico Johnson (ILB) Alabama – The Niners could use some depth behind Willis and Bowman. Johnson is a well-built MLB who runs well (4.6) and could learn a lot behind those two. He could contribute to special teams right away.
4th Round Pick 131
The Pick: Trevardo Williams (OLB) Connecticut
Williams is an edge rusher who right now is one-dimensional. He is extremely explosive off the edge and shows a great motor. Has gotten comparisons to Bruce Irvin, the Seahawks pass rush specialist, as an ultra quick, undersized pass rusher. You can never have enough pass rush. There is also a chance he goes much higher than this.
Alternate Pick #1 – Quanterus Smith (DE/OLB) Western Kentucky
Alternate Pick #2 – Chase Thomas (OLB) Stanford
5th Round Pick 157
The pick: T.J. McDonald (S) USC – The son of former 49er Tim McDonald, is a quality safety prospect, who could develop into a solid starter down the road. I wouldn’t put it past the Niners to draft two safeties with Whitner becoming a free agent after the season.
Alternate Pick #1 – Robert Lester (S) Alabama
Alternate Pick #2 – Reid Fragel (OT) Ohio State
6th Round Pick 173
The Pick: Dustin Hopkins (K) Florida State – An accurate and productive kicker. He is one of two or three kickers who could go in the draft. Dawson is not young.
6th Round Pick 180
The Pick: Ace Sanders (WR) South Carolina – A kick and punt return specialist, who could become a solid slot receiver.
7th Round Pick 237
The Pick: Jordan Rodgers (QB) Vanderbilt- The Niners don’t pass on a Rodgers this time. He can create competition for the #3 QB spot on the roster with Scott Tolzien.
7th Round Pick 246
The Pick: Quinton Dial (DE) Alabama
7th Round Pick 252
The Pick: John Boyett (S) Oregon
-Andy Kiriakedes
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