Another Monday morning/afternoon, another Optimum Scouting Notebook. While I already hope these provide some scouting insight every week, I’ll be really focusing on this during the season. I know it’s not at Peter King’s Monday Morning Quarterback level quite yet, any thoughts or ideas to cater to what you want would be appreciated.
In the final Scouting Notebook before the start of the season, I’ll go over Optimum Scouting’s position rankings that are all updated, ESPN3 games to watch this Thursday, and the Top 10 quarterbacks under 27 years old in the NFL.
Optimum Scouting Position Ranking Notes
All of our rankings can be found here, so if you haven’t checked them out yet, please do.
Small School Prospects
While our top small school prospects haven’t been released yet, there are five non-FBS talents that have cracked our top prospects already. Other small schools made the list, but these five have a chance to be Top 100 prospects with big senior season.
The two best are BJ Coleman, quarterback from UT-Chattanooga, and Janoris Jenkins, cornerback fro North Alabama. Jenkins is the former Florida Gators transfer who, despite being kicked off the team, should still be firmly in the first round mix. Coleman is a name that maybe you haven’t heard of, but he has the arm, quick release, build, mental make-up, and touch to be a draft riser as the season goes on, maybe even to fringe Joe-Flacco level.
After those two, two receivers in Chris Summers of Liberty and Norman White of Villanova both have the size to be #1 or #2 NFL receivers. Summers is a lanky, ball grabbing athlete while White is a bit more physical, still athletic, and is maybe a bit more polished. The final prospect is Tyler Holmes, linebacker from UMass. A bit undersized, he tracks the ball well, can play in coverage, and can play in a variety of systems if teams can overlook his height.
North Carolina Dominates the Rankings
Last year, North Carolina dominated our rankings with defensive talent like Marvin Austin, Robert Quinn, Kendric Burney, Deunta Williams, and more, along with offensive guys like TJ Yates.
This year, the Tar Heels have even more talent, including four seniors who are top 5 at their position. Quinton Coples at defensive end is the best of the bunch as one of the top seniors in the entire draft. I’m a huge fan as well of Tyreke Powell at defensive tackle, but it’ll be tough for him to really explode with Coples and junior Donte Paige-Moss, who is our top junior defensive end. Also on that defense, Zach Brown at linebacker is our number one on the outside, and Kevin Reddick is a top five junior inside linebacker. Also, Charles Brown is among our top cornerbacks.
On offense, Dwight Jones is the #4 rated receiver, and has the skill set to maybe be the best UNC receiver in the past four drafts, something that’s a pretty high complement. Also, Ryan Houston at running back is among our top backs this year.
Great Linebacker Class
Last year, I was a big fan of an under rated linebacker class that had around 9 players in our top 60 at the linebacker position. This year, there is far more talent early, and could make for 3, 4, even 5 true linebackers taken in round one.
Zach Brown of North Carolina, Courtney Upshaw of Alabama, and Travis Lewis of Oklahoma are all in the first round on our board, and all have value in mulitple systems. Brown should be a Top 15 guy, while Upshaw and Lewis are more in the middle to bottom part of the first round. Also, Lavonte David of Nebraska, Danny Trevathan of Kentucky, Sean Spence of Miami (FL), and Audie Cole of NC State all have great talent as seniors on the outside, all could jump into Top 32 discussion with big senior years.
Add in Tank Carder of TCU at inside linebacker, and juniors Don’t’a Hightower of Alabama, Vontaze Burfict of Arizona State, Manti Te’o of Notre Dame, and Luke Kuechly of Boston College (all of which are already fringe first rounders, and it could be a battle for teams to decide which talented linebacker they need in round one.
Loads of Depth at Receiver, Interior OL
Juniors Alshon Jeffery of South Carolina, Justin Blackmon of Oklahoma State and senior Michael Floyd of Notre Dame are the only sure-fire first rounders as of now in the 2012 draft class. However, as many as 8 other seniors/juniors could be in contention for picks 20-50.
Seniors Jeff Fuller of Texas A&M, Ryan Broyles of Oklahoma, and Dwight Jones of North Carolina are in the mixer right now for the Top 32, and all should be selected in there, as many teams target receiver late in round one. After them, Juron Criner of Arizona (who has some question marks but the talent is sure there), Greg Childs of Arkansas (who could still have a big year despite Ryan Mallett being gone), TY Hilton of Florida International (maybe the most explosive player in this draft), and juniors TJ Moe of Missouri and Mohamed Sanu of Rutgers all should be considered for an early 2nd round pick.
On the interior offensive line, Cordy Glenn of Georgia leads the way as potentially a Top 10-15 pick. After him though, Ryan Miller of Colorado has great size and build, Nate Potter is a current tackle who may be best suited inside, Keith Zeitler of Wisconsin is the prototypical Wisconsin guard with a bit more athlteticm. All three after Glenn should be NFL starters down the road. And at center, Michael Brewster of Ohio State could be another first round center, while Ben Jones of Georgia and David Molk of Michigan both could be long term NFL starters at the center position, and could be had in round 2 or 3 with the rest of the top guards.
Most Unsettled Positions
Quarterback is very up in the air now at the senior level. Kirk Cousins has been a favorite of mine for years, but Ryan Lindley of San Diego State has a live arm, BJ Coleman is a complete passer and well built in the mold of a Carson Palmer, Kellen Moore of Boise State is a pure winner and could be just as good if not better than Colt McCoy in the NFL, and Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M has a great arm and is a favorite among NFL scouts.
At running back, after junior Trent Richardson, any number of players could top this list. Montell Harris looks in the mold of past productive college runners to the pros like Ray Rice, but his most recent injury could hurt his chances. Cyrus Gray still has a lot to prove, Isaiah Pead may not be a feature runner, Knile Davis of Arkansas is out for the year, Chris Polk of Washington will have to be basically the entire offense this season, LaMichael James needs to prove he can withstand NFL hits, and Edwin Baker will need to show more athleticism as a runner. All could be the top running back behind Trent Richardson come the end of the year.
And at senior cornerback, it’s mostly a shot in the dark as to who the best is. Talent-wise, Janoris Jenkins of North Alabama is the easy pick, but the fact he was kicked off of Florida is a serious concern. Chase Minnefield of Virginia, Casey Heyward of Vanderbilt, and Alfonzo Dennard of Nebraska all could be just as good if not better than Jenkins at the next level. As far as juniors, I’m a huge Stephen Gilmore of South Carolina fan, but Dre Kirkpatrick of Alabama and Morris Claiborne of LSU both have lots of talent. Jayron Hosley of Virginia Tech had 9 interceptions last year, and if he can replicate that, there’s no reason he can’t be a first round cornerback.
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ESPN3 Thursday Games to Watch
This Thursday, before our Weekly Match-Up preview article coming every week, there are nine games on ESPN3.com that are almost all worth watching.
I’ll be at the Villanova vs. Temple game, which has been one of the most fun early season game to watch the past two years, and feature top NFL draft talents like defensive end Adrian Robinson (who I like a lot as a 3-4 rusher), Bernard Pierce at running back, and for Villanova, Norman White at receiver.
Also on Thursday, you can see Western Illinois, Sam Houston State, NC Central, South Alabama, and Fordham from the FCS ranks, and West Alabama from the D2 ranks.
Outside of Villanova vs. Temple, North Texas vs. Florida International may be the biggest game to watch. North Texas features Lance Dunbar at running back, one of the most productive running backs in the FBS the past few years. Also, TY Hilton, college football’s best playmaker for Florida International will get a chance to show his excitement for teams.
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NEW SERIES: Top 10…NFL Quarterbacks Under 26 Years Old
In what will be a regular here in the Scouting Notebook, I’ll be breaking down a unique Top 10 every week, related to scouting. This week, I’ll take a quick look at the top young quarterbacks in the NFL.
10. Matt Flynn, Green Bay, 26
Not yet a starter, viewed as maybe the best back-up in the NFL, the Packers have the tough choice on whether to trade him now before his contract runs out and get potentially a 2nd or 3rd rounder for him, or let a Top 30-35 quarterback in the NFL walk.
9. Cam Newton, Carolina, 22
The future looks very bright for Cam with the team the Panthers put around him, and if he can continue his development and improve each week with more confidence, there’s no reason he can be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in 3-4 years.
8. Jake Locker, Tennessee, 23
Our number two rated quarterback prospect, I continued to say that I knew he wouldn’t fall out of the Top 10, and with him landing in Tennessee with a good LT, a great running back, and a team patient with their youth, he could be a playoff quarterback in two years once he’s ready.
7. Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville, 20
Still very young and will be 21 by mid-season, Gabbert should be a starter by his birthday and could have a promising first season if his talented offensive line can stay healthy and at least one of his young receivers can emerge.
6. Joe Flacco, Baltimore, 26
Still a big Flacco fan, he hasn’t developed enough to be a game winning playoff quarterback, and I’m not sure if he can get there. He has won in the past and the team around him is built for the future, but despite his success, I’m not sure if he has the “it” factor to be a great NFL quarterback.
5. Mark Sanchez, New York Jets, 24
By season’s end, this is likely to change, as I think the Jets are destined for the Super Bowl this season. However, until Sanchez can prove he can lead his very talented team with him being the feature player, I’ll still view him as a talented game manager and not an NFL great. If he wins a Super Bowl though at age 24, that’ll change quite a bit. 
4. Matt Stafford, Detroit, 23
While Sanchez has won more and been healthier over his career, talent-wise and overall evaluation-wise, I’ll still take Stafford. While I don’t think this is the year of the Lions resurgence, I think Stafford should have a breakout year with the talent on that offense.
3. Sam Bradford, St. Louis, 23
Maybe I’m crazy, but while Bradford was impressive last year, he didn’t stand out to me as the next great quarterback in the NFL. While he did almost win the NFC West with Danny Amendola as his primary target, which is very impressive, he needs to show that he can do more than just a good job with limited talent, but a great job with a playoff team.
2. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay, 23
Most of this ranking is based off of gut feeling and mental make-up, I think Josh Freeman is exactly what evaluators mean about the “it” factor. He’s a leader of a young team that has been built around him, he is great late in games, he isn’t fazed by the media or off the field concerns, and he has the arm strength and the feet to make plays without great talent around him.
1. Matt Ryan, Atlanta, 26
Talent-wise and ceiling-wise, I’m not sold on Matt Ryan still. I didn’t view him this highly in the 2008 draft, so maybe that’s part of it, but this number one ranking can be easily overtaken. However, he has been great thus far, has a Super Bowl caliber team around him now, and if he can put up the 4,500, 40 touchdown numbers like this offense is capable of doing this year, he could get to NFL elite very quickly.
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