Now that we’re all a good 12-24 hours at least past the shocking news (mostly broke on twitter than his actual 4 PM EST press conference) that Matt Barkley will be returning to USC for his senior season. In all honesty, it should be shocking at all. He’s been a starter for this program for three years, through thick and (a lot of) thin moments. He’s been passionate about his love for USC. And past USC great Matt Leinart likely barely hesitated in his decision to return to school.
With this news, a domino effect will occur on both the college and NFL ranks. Some are great for college football, some are concerning for Barkley, and some are barely related to the Barkley decision at all, yet still have some resonating impacts. Here are the Ten Impacts to be aware of based on his decision.
1. The USC Trojans Should be a Top TEN Team
The USC Trojans will return the best quarterback in college football, regardless on if Robert Griffin returns or not. Barkley’s football IQ, management of the team, leadership role, and so much more make him a special college quarterback and likely, when all said and done, the best in a long line of elite USC Trojans. However, let’s pump the breaks a bit on the USC being a Top 5 team. They still have those lost scholorships to deal with, likely dealing a blow to their depth. That lack of depth, as well as youth on the offensive line, could lead to inconsistency, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see one or two losses from this Trojan team. They have talent and now star-power, but I’m not ready to crown them “elite” as a team quite yet.
2. The Trojans Likely Will Have an Easy Road to the Pac-12 Title Game
This year, the Trojans ran away with the Pac-12 crown…but didn’t get it thanks to the NCAA sanctions. Even with new coaches at Arizona (Rich Rodriguez, who will be successful), UCLA (with the questionable yet respected Jim Mora Jr), and Arizona State (with the, I’m my opinion, done-in-three-years Todd Graham), the Trojans are the only team to be a lock to go above .500 next year. Only Arizona State and Arizona have the talent to compete next year, and both will have some adjusting to do.
3. There Will Be Lots of Fighting for Robert Griffin…If He Declares
Onto the draft now, where the desire and need to get a quarterback sometimes trumps the value of draft picks altogether. By my assessment, only three teams REALLY need a quarterback of the future: Washington, Miami, and Seattle. With Andrew Luck gone by pick one, likely now to the Colts, and Robert Griffin the only first round graded prospect in the draft, those three teams (likely just two once you read #9 on this list) will need to pony up to Minnesota or St. Louis to get Griffin. However, Griffin is no lock to declare. Then, it’s a “Luck or That Sucks” draft at quarterback in the first round.
4. This Won’t Help Other Quarterback’s Stock as Much as Advertised
Instant reaction after the Barkley decision was that other quarterbacks below him, most notably Ryan Tannehill or Landry Jones, would have a sharp rise in draft stock. However, I don’t really see that happeneing for two reasons. One, the other quarterbacks in this class AREN’T first round guys. I always here about Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert being “overpicked”, which is wrong. Even Christian Ponder, who I didn’t love, had first round, play now and be adequate type skills. Ryan Tannehill is a project and a 2nd round long-term guy. Brandon Weeden is too old to be a first rounder. Landry Jones is far too underdeveloped and no lock to be a starter based on his junior film. Teams reach at times for quarterbacks, but I’d be shocked if a team reaches substantially for any one of the senior quarterbacks.
5. “Weaknesses” Will Be “Found” Over the Course of Barkley’s Senior Season
The two words in quotes are there are the most notable for Barkley because both will occur, yet neither are really relevant. Similar to how weaknesses were found in Jake Locker when he returned to school, the Barkley detractors will be heard loud and clear all next season. Questions about his arm strength, his pocket presence, his touch down field, all the usual “weaknesses” that come up through over-evaluation. He will not get worse as a quarterback this year. If anything, some minor areas could be cleaned up.
6. He Will NOT Fall in 2013 Draft Past Top 7, Barring Major Injury
In this year’s draft, Matt Barkley likely wouldn’t fall past the Top 7 or so picks, or wherever the lower of Washington/Miami fall when the season is over. And in next year’s draft, barring a major knee or shoulder injury that is concerning about his long-term career, he won’t fall past those 7-10 slots. If he struggles, if the team goes 6-6, if his completion percetange is 50%, he won’t fall that low. Jake Locker didn’t (would have been somewhere between 4-10 in 2010, went 8 in 2011), and Matt Barkley surely won’t.
7. Non-Quarterback Needy Teams Will Suffer Too
This Barkley decision may obviously affect the Browns and Redskins and Dolphins, but the fact that one, clear-cut top ten pick that teams that didn’t need quarterbacks didn’t even consider, this means that those teams will have to consider another elite prospect. So for teams like the Bucs, Panthers and Bills, they’ll have likely a player who they thought would be available but may be scooped up thanks to Barkley being out of the draft.
8. The Miami Dolphins Will Be Strong Suitors for the Andrew Luck Mortgage
The Miami Dolphins know they are built for a franchise quarterback NOW. Ideally, they want to have one by next season, as their team is the right age, the right talent level, and enough depth to compete early with a young passer. Barkley would have been perfect, and it seemed to be set up that the Redskins get Griffin and the Dolphins get Barkley. But with few other glaring needs in my opinion, they could look to mortgage the future drafts and make a play for Andrew Luck. It may take three firsts and a player or two, but look for the Dolphins to strongly consider the move now. Maybe they’ll hire Mike Ditka?
9. Seattle Likely to Pass on Quarterback, Possibly “Prepare” For Barkley
Seattle stands now at 7-7, likely in the playoff hunt for another week. But despite Tavaris Jackson’s play at times, he’s not the long term answer. Another team, similar to the Dolphins, with the offensive line, coaching stability, and running game to provide the requirements for a young quarterback to be successful. However, outside of reaching on a 2nd rounder or making a huge move to get Robert Griffin, they’ll likely have to sit out the year in the franchise quarterback search. And if that’s the case, why not plan to reunite Pete Carroll and Matt Barkley? That’d likely be the dream scenerio for both of them. Maybe Seattle can trade down a few times, pick up a 2013 1st rounder, maybe a 2013 3rd and 4th, and have the necessary means to still have a successful season as well AND have the means to get Matt Barkley.
10. Look for the Second Round to Be a Hotbed for Quarterback Decisions
Second round quarterback in the NFL draft are generally a year-long first date for teams. They have three options: Treat them like a first rounder (become a couple), Be patient and give them a year or two (a 2nd and 3rd date), or Scrap the quarterback as no more than a back-up (Save in the phonebook). The 2nd round quarterbacks have very little long-term commitment, little risk outside of not drafting a potential impact player. So, for a team like the Dolphins or Redskins or Seattle or Kansas City who may miss out on a solid round one quarterback now, look for them to target Brandon Weeden, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles. I’d actually be surprised if all four of those guys DIDN’T get selected after the Top 64 picks.
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