Six Nations beckons

Rugby Union’s much awaited Six Nations is just five days away, with Scotland and Ireland kicking off at Murayfield at 14.25 on Saturday February 4th, and with a British Lions tour to New Zealand this summer it will be a tournament that makes or breaks reputations. Obviously the French and Italians won’t be playing for a place on the Lions tour, although it would be fascinating if they were, but they will be as motivated as they always are to make their mark.

But which team will take the honours in this year’s tournament? England, under Australian guru Eddie Jones, have now won a record equalling 14 games in a row, and with combative skipper Dylan Hartley back at the helm following a domestic ban for striking, it might be foolish to bet against them. However, injuries to key players, not least the brothers Vunipola, will have an impact. Elder brother Mako has become one of the most dependable looseheads in world rugby over the last two years. He holds the scrum up, tackles like a flanker of old and carries the ball with brute strength and no little skill. Meanwhile younger brother Billy is one of the hardest men to tackle in the game. So their absence will be felt, but coach Jones appears to have instilled some crafty intelligence into his players and he still has a well stocked cupboard to choose from. With Hartley, Joe Marler, Dan Co

le, Maro Itoje, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes and George Kruis there is no shortage of size or experience in the pack. There are some questions over the back row but Jones has a knack of getting the best out of his players so expect them to rise to the occasion. The backs are a bit more settled with Ben Youngs, George Ford, Owen Farrell, Jonathan Joseph and Mike Brown all proven international performers. So England may be missing a few players but they will be very tough to beat.

Wales had a rough time in the autumn internationals, losing 32-8 to Australia and only just beating Japan and Argentina. Yes they did beat South Africa 27-13 but that was the worst South African team to tour the UK since the end of apartheid, and nobody would take that result as evidence of a strong Wales. In fact, the principality is having to deal with a raft of famous names reaching the end of their careers. And with head coach Warren Gatland on a sabbatical to take charge of the Lions, his stand-in Rob Howley has a big job on his hands to make an impression on the Six Nations. New skipper Alun Wyn Jones does not lack any experience or knowledge, with 105 caps for Wales and six for the Lions under his belt. In fact they don’t come much better, and deposed skipper Sam Warburton will be on a mission to prove his value. But will they gel as a team and win the big matches?

Ireland enjoyed one of the most famous victories in their illustrious rugby history with that memorable win over the New  Zealand All Blacks in November. And if they can once again invoke that spirit, skill and determination then they will be very strong contenders indeed. In Conor Murray and fit again Jonny Sexton they have an ultra reliable and threatening half back combination, and with strong runners outside them like Robbie Henshaw, Tommy Bowe and Rob Kearney the backs are dangerous indeed. If the forwards provide the platform, and there’s no reason to think they won’t, this Ireland team could be champions, especially with a potential humdinger of a home game against arch rivals England on the final day of the championship, March 18.

So what about Scotland? In the World Cup quarter-final it was so near yet so far against Australia and then they lost to the men in gold again in the autumn internationals. But Glasgow Warriors have just registered the seismic 43-0 thrashing of Leicester Tigers at Leicester and that Glasgow team contains half the Scotland squad. There’s little doubt this is the best Scotland team for many years now, but can they register the victories in the big matches? They are missing both of their first choice props Alasdair Dickinson and WP Nel, which might be just the sort of blow they can’t quite recover from. If the front row can hold their own then this will be a dangerous team. The titanic Gray brothers in the second row never leave anything out on the pitch, and provide the pulsating heart in the middle of Vern Cotter’s well organised and passionate team. There are plenty of back row boys to do all the dirty work and Greig Laidlaw must be the canniest man in world rugby. The scrum half with almost no pace, a comparatively tiny body frame and posing very little attacking threat with the ball in hand is an absolute maestro. His ability to read a game, and a referee, are essential to the success of the team and his combination with Finn Russell at fly half is pivotal. Russell orchestrated Glasgow’s win in Leicester and he has just been getting better and better. Standing flatter than might be advised for his own health he threatens the line every time he gets the ball, has a clever kicking game and just appears to love playing rugby. With a host of strong running centres and wingers (Alex Dunbar, Duncan Taylor, Tommy Seymour, Matt Scott, Sean Maitland, Mark Bennett) outside him and one of the most exciting players in the game, Stuart Hogg, at full back there are tries here. Home fixtures against Wales and Ireland are the big targets but a win in Paris is achievable. If they could somehow beat England at Twickenham then the world is their oyster.

Can France launch a serious campaign? Yes, of course they can. This is the home of Serge Blanco, Phillippe Sella, Imanol Harinordoquy and all their outrageously talented mates. French rugby at its best is verging on the barbaric up front and sheer poetry out wide. But they have to travel to Twickenham to face England and to Dublin for Ireland, and it’s hard to see them winning either of those games. They have some outstanding players but who knows whether head coach Guy Noves will be able to get the best out of them or not. Prop Uini Atonio weighs 145kgs but that doesn’t necessarily make him any good at rugby. Gael Fickou, Wesley Fofana, Maxime Medard and Maxime Mermoz are all gifted runners and ball handlers but the team needs to pull together for success.

So that brings us to the sixth nation, Italy. Will they challenge for the championship? Not on this side of the looking glass they won’t. But if the Lions did include France and Italy then in Sergio Parisse the Italians have a number 8 who would have many Lions caps behind him already. The warrior is not finished yet and while he is out there nobody should expect an easy ride.

It’s going to be a fascinating Six Nations, with England and Ireland looking like favourites, but they have to live up to that billing and the others would like nothing more than stealing their thunder.