Sixers Go Around the Horn

By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)

Even in the dead zone of the NBA offseason, people love to discuss ‘The Process’. Yesterday on Around the Horn, Pablo Torre got into a discussion with Bomani Jones, arguing the Sixers need more time to see this experiment play out and concluding ‘I’d rather be a Sixers fan than a Knicks fan right now.’

It’s a nice sentiment and certainly one every Sixers fan hopes in their heart is true, but let’s take a closer examination and see how much validity there is to it.

Knicks Current Roster (with 2015 salaries):

Carmelo Anthony ($22.9M); Robin Lopez ($12.7M); Arron Afflalo ($8M); Jose Calderon ($7.4M); Derrick Williams ($4.4M); Kyle O’Quinn ($3.8M); Louis Amundson ($1.7M); Lance Thomas ($1.6M); Ricky Ledo ($0.9M); Cleanthony Early ($0.8M); Langston Galloway ($0.8M); Kristaps Porzingis (Rookie deal); Jerian Grant (Rookie deal)

I actually think Phil Jackson had a very solid offseason, simultaneously building for the future by drafting 1st-rounders Porzingis and Grant and taking small-ish fliers on the still-young Derrick Williams and Kyle O’Quinn, while still keeping the team somewhat relevant in the short term by signing Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo at reasonable rates. No one can rationally argue the Knicks are a contender, but they can certainly get back into the playoffs in the East as they develop some of their young talent. Also, the Carmelo deal will look less onerous when the salary cap skyrockets over the next couple years.

Sixers Current Roster (with 2015 salaries):

Jason Thompson ($6.7M); Carl Landry ($6.5M); Joel Embiid ($4.6M); Jahlil Okafor ($4.6M); Nerlens Noel ($3.5M); Nik Stauskas ($2.9M); Furkan Aldemir ($2.8M); Tony Wroten ($2.2M); Robert Covington ($1.0M); Hollis Thompson ($0.9M); Isaiah Canaan ($0.9M); Jerami Grant ($0.8M); JaKarr Sampson ($0.8M); Pierre Jackson ($0.8M); Scottie Wilbekin ($0.5M); T.J. McConnell (?); Richaun Holmes (?)

Meanwhile, the Sixers continue to play for next year. The team has two young building blocks in place in Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor, in addition to some young promising role players like Nik Stauskas, Robert Covington, Jerami Grant, and Hollis Thompson. Nobody knows if Joel Embiid will ever have a real shot at an NBA career. The Sixers certainly have more young talent than the Knicks, but not by as much as you would have liked as a Philadelphia fan. Plus, New York only had to endure one horrific season record-wise, not two and counting.

Estimated Cap Space via Spotrac (including cap holds):

Knicks (2016): $23M; (2017): $52M

Sixers (2016): $44M; (2017): $58M

Another area Jackson has done a nice job since taking over is building a competitive team while keeping the long-term books relatively clean, as New York will have about as much cap space as Philadelphia in 2 years. Meanwhile, the Knicks still have enough space to try and make a splash in free agency next year. Sixers fans love to talk about all the cap space the team has, and it’s wonderful when they can use it to get the treasure trove of assets they received from Sacramento, but it’s unlikely to be as valuable as people think. With nearly every team having some degree of space as the cap rises dramatically, the Sixers having all that cap room inherently carries less weight. Plus, there’s a perception in some circles of the league that Philadelphia is not a destination where free agents will want to come given how the last few years have shaken out. We won’t know either way until Sam Hinkie actually makes a hard push in free agency.

Draft Picks (through 2020):

Knicks 1st-round picks: Own in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 [4]

Knicks 2nd-round picks: HOU in 2017; CLE in 2019; HOU in 2019 [3]

Sixers 1st-round picks: Own in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020; LAL in 2016; MIA in 2016; OKC in 2016; SAC in 2018 at earliest; SAC pick swaps in 2016, 2017 [9, plus swaps]

Sixers 2nd-round picks: Own in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020; DEN in 2016; BKN in 2018; CLE in 2018; LAC in 2018; NYK in 2018; MIL in 2019; NYK in 2019; SAC in 2019; BKN in 2020; NYK in 2020 [14]

Ah, finally we arrive at the area where Sixers fans can hang their hats. The Sixers have exponentially more picks over the 5 years, some of which between their own, the Sacramento swaps, and the Lakers pick should be very high lottery selections. I think this is ultimately where ‘The Process’ will live or die, whether one of those selections can be leveraged into finally obtaining that true superstar Sixers management craves. If the team continues to have bad luck in the lottery, as they have the last two years, all the naysayers will likely have their day. As for New York, they’re going to need to rely on free agency to continue to build going forward, but between Phil Jackson and the allure of the Big Apple, they can certainly get meetings with most players.

To sum everything up, the Sixers appear to have a potentially higher ceiling given the abundance of draft picks Hinkie has accumulated, but as we’ve seen the last couple years, the floor is much lower. The Knicks only had to endure one nightmarish season and seem to have pivoted nicely back to being a competitive team with some degree of upside depending on Porzingis and, to a lesser extent, Grant. Whether they ever transform into a true contender will depend upon Jackson being able to draw a big name in free agency; it’s a risky proposition, but then, so is the lottery. I think which side you would want to fall on depends upon your personal patience and degree of risk tolerance. It’s certainly an interesting conversation to have.