Following a largely unsuccessful four-game west coast trip, the Sixers return home to face the Bucks in one of just four remaining home games this season. This contest represents one of the team’s best chances for a win down the stretch as Philadelphia is a respectable 20-17 on the season at home, while Milwaukee is slumping, having lost three straight and 7 of their past 11. Although the Bucks have all but clinched a playoff spot, sitting in 8th place and 7.5 games ahead of the Sixers, they would very much like to move up the 7th seed and avoid a first round slaughter at the hands of the Miami Heat. Having not played since Sunday against the Hawks, the Bucks should enter play rested and appropriately prepared for a Sixers team they’ve defeated in all three previous meetings this season.
The Bucks’ offensive profile on the season seems very similar to last season’s Sixers team, as they sport the third-best turnover ratio in the league, but feature the 7th-worst effective FG% and 6th-lowest FTA rate. Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings shoot just 41.9% and 39.7% from the field, respectively, but account for almost 40% of the team’s shot attempts. Any long jumper from those two should be considered a win for the defense, especially any Ellis three, where he shoots a horrid 27.2%.
Milwaukee’s recent struggles stem from an inability to stop the opponent, as they have 108.8 defensive rating over the last 11 games, compared to their 102.3 mark over the course of the season. The Bucks have experimented with a lineup featuring newly acquired J.J. Redick at small forward with the Jennings, Ellis, Ilyasova, Sanders starting unit. Although that lineup has scored well, it has also been, by far, the team’s worst defensive line-up this season (min. 50 minutes played). Milwaukee will need to find different ways to incorporate Redick because any group with him and the two small guards will not be able to stop anyone from scoring.
Keys to the Game:
- Attack the offensive glass. The Bucks are the third-worst defensive rebounding team in the NBA, with the opposition collecting 28.8% of available offensive rebounds. Milwaukee especially struggles to rebound when Larry Sanders hits the bench; Arnett Moultrie and Lavoy Allen lead the team in offensive rebounding rate and should take advantage of the Bucks’ second unit.
- Protect the ball offensively. Milwaukee forces the 7th-highest percent of turnovers in the league as they rely on run-outs to bolster an otherwise stagnant offense. If the Sixers can limit those live ball turnovers, the Bucks should struggle to score out of their half court sets. It will be crucial for Jrue Holiday to run the show offensively while avoiding one of his sloppy performances holding on to the rock.
Prediction:
The Sixers tough loss against the Bucks in the teams’ last meeting likely extinguished the Sixers’ last realistic chance at making a playoff push. Philadelphia ought to remember that defeat and try to get pull out one victory in this season series. With Milwaukee’s recent struggles and the Sixers’ solid play at home, Philadelphia should pull this game out in a close finish.
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