St. Louis Cardinals Season Preview: Too Good For What They’ll Get

The Cards took advantage of a dubious infield fly call in last year’s inaugural Wild Card game, and advanced all the way to NLCS before falling to the eventual champs, the Giants. Last season, St. Louis won 88 games and finished second in the NL Central under rookie manager Mike Matheny. This year, Matheny has a year of experience under his belt and the team is locked and loaded, looking to run down the odds-on favorite Reds. We’re now in the second year of the post-Pujols era and the Cards are just as talented and deep as ever. They have the potential to be one of the league’s most well-rounded and potent teams.

Projected Lineup:

1. John Jay Cf
2. Carlos Beltran Rf
3. Allen Craig 1b
4. Matt Holliday Lf
5. Yadier Molina C
6. David Freese 3b
7. Daniel Descalso 2b
8. Pete Kozma Ss

Projected Rotation:

• Adam Wainwright
• Jake Westbrook
• Lance Lynn
• Jaime Garcia
• Shelby Miller

Strengths:

Lineup: The Cards have one of the deepest lineups in the NL. Allen Craig just signed a long term extension and is coming off a year in which he hit 22 homers and batted above .300. Matt Holliday is an experienced vet who hit .295 last year while driving in more than 100 runs and hitting 27 bombs. Add to that Carlos Beltran who had a career resurgence last season, and Yadier Molina who would have been a fine choice for NL MVP in 2012, and this is a potent group.

Cream of the Staff: The best pitchers in the Cards system are really, really good. Adam Wainwright is an elite pitcher who often gets over looked. Shelby Miller is entering his rookie season and has the potential to be an Ace someday. Trevor Rosenthal will be in the ‘pen and throws about 100 mph playing catch. Digging slightly deeper, Lance Lynn is coming off an 18 win season and is no slouch in his own right. Westbrook and Garcia are Major League-average starters, and Jason Motte is a fine closer, but at a position sabermetricians will tell you isn’t all that important anyway.

Bottom line: The bottom line on the 2013 Cards, as it is seemingly every year, is that this is a strong group top to bottom on both sides of the ball. They have the experience necessary and will be tough to beat on any day.

Weaknesses:

Shortstop: The most glaring hole in this team is at short. Rafael Furcal is hurt for the foreseeable future and will be unavailable. Thing is, Furcal isn’t very good anymore anyway (.262 last season with a .325 OBP) and the guy he was supposed to start over is even worse. Pete Kozma made a name for himself in the playoffs but over all he played only 26 games for the big club and hit only .232 in AAA. The rule on shortstops is (or should be) “just make sure they don’t hurt you” and Kozma looks like he might violate it. Short could be a black hole in Busch Stadium this season one that could cost the team some wins.

Rotation Depth: I know I just got done talking about how 3/5 of the rotation is great, but hear me out on this one. Other than Wainright, who are you afraid to face from this rotation? Look at the Nationals. On that team, every day you have to deal with something you don’t want to go anywhere near, be it Strasburg, Haren, Gonzalez, or even Zimmerman. On the Cards? I’ll tell you right now, nobody is getting worked up over facing Jake Westbrook or Jaime Garcia.

Storylines:

• Will Allen Craig live up to his big new longterm contract?
• Will Wainright be able to stay healthy for the full season? Will Beltran?
• The Cards traded Ronnie Cedeno to the Astros, thereby avoiding the disaster that would have been Ronnie Cedeno on the Cardinals and all but ensuring that his streak of last place finishes continues. Trading Ronnie Cedeno immediately becomes their best offseason move. Signing Ronnie Cedeno remains their worst.

Prediction:

90-72. 2nd Place, NL Central. The Cards can never seem to stay healthy for a full season and that will cost them a few. So will their lack of a shortstop. The real problem for the Cardinals is that the Reds are just plain better than them–90 wins in second is pretty hard luck.

Bold Predictions:

• Allen Craig will finish in the top 10 in MVP votes
• The Cardinals will win 10 more games than they do in an alternate universe in which they didn’t trade Ronnie Cedeno
• The Cards cumulative WAR out of the shortstop position will be negative
• Carlos Beltran will hit .288 with 21 homers

-Max Frankel