Statistical Preview: Cincinnati Bengals

This is the first of a weekly series looking at the Steelers’ opposition using all the advanced statistics from Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats I can find. Read and enjoy!

Overall Team Stats

GWP: Generic Win Probability; EPA: Expected Points Added

Some explanations of new stats are in order here. Weighted Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) puts more emphasis on recent games, to give a better idea of how teams are playing now. At 7.3% below average, as opposed to 7.1%, the Bengals are playing slightly worse than they did at the beginning of the year. Generic Win Probability (GWP) is Advanced NFL Stats’ calculation of winning percentage based on teams’ efficiency stats (yards per play on offense and defense, along with turnover rate and penalty rate). Expected Points Added (EPA) measures the total change in expected points for all plays, expected points being the average points a team would score in a given situation. Advanced NFL Stats’ glossary is there for you to click on and read a more detailed explanation.

Jump for the rest of the analysis and charts!

As you can see, the Bengals are in the bottom half of the league by pretty much every general stat, and on both offense and defense. The two sites agree: the Bengals’ offense has been okay, but not good, while their defense has been terrible so far.

General Offensive Stats

Success Rate: Percentage of plays that result in a positive EPA

Both systems agree that the Bengals’ offense is mediocre in general, but their passing offense is better than their run offense. All that relatively high success rate means is that the plays that aren’t successful are much worse to the team than normal (think interceptions, fumbles, and large losses rather than a loss of 1). Interestingly, the offensive line has performed rather well this year, according to Football Outsiders:

The Adjusted Line Yards and Power Success rankings are usually indicative of a rushing offense that’s in the top half of teams rather than ranked 20th, meaning that the offensive line has performed much better than their running backs (more on this later). They are also fourth-best in protecting the quarterback, something that will definitely be put to the test on Monday.

General Defensive Stats

Again, some agreement here. The Bengals’ pass defense is about average, but their rushing defense is near the bottom of the league. For a Steelers rushing offense that has been in free fall since the first few weeks of the year, it’s an opportunity to get something going.

The defensive line stats bear this out (I won’t put them in chart form, because I think federal law states that you can’t have more than 10 charts in a blog post). They are 20th in Adjusted Line Yards, but are dead last in power success (92%). If there is a team to run against in short-yardage situations, it’s this one. They are also next-to-last in getting to the quarterback, so if Ben gets sacked a lot, you know it’s a bad day for the Steelers O-line.

Defensive Matchup Stats

These matchup stats are from Football Outsiders. Note that their definitions of #1 or #2 receiver may vary. The Bengals, however, are mediocre against both #1 and #2 receivers, which bodes well for both Hines Ward and Mike Wallace. They are third-best at defending passes thrown to running backs, but that’s not a huge part of the Steelers’ offense. Overall, the defensive matchup stats seem to favor the Steelers.

Individual Offensive Stats

Quarterback

WPA-Win Probability Added

Carson Palmer’s season has so far been more in line with his 2008 and ’09 than his 2005-07. At this point, I think it’s safe to say that he probably won’t regain the franchise QB status so many had given him. He (at least stats-wise) appears to have never recovered from an elbow injury he sustained early in the 2008 season.

Running Backs

Cedric Benson appears to have regressed back to his 2007-08 level, although his 2009 wasn’t that great despite the high yardage total. I won’t put their receiving stats here (trying to abide by federal law here), but Benson has been mediocre, while Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard have been really good receivers this year (showing last year was no fluke for both), and have both been better rushers than Benson, at least on a per-play basis.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Surprise! The Bengals’ best receiver this year is neither of the two with their own show on VS, but their third receiver and third round pick last year, Jordan Shipley. Perhaps this is because he’s the third receiver; defenses are still more likely to put their best against T.O. and Chad Ochocinco. It’s almost unsurprising that Owens is this bad; he was this bad last year in Buffalo. Chad, though, is having his worst year since his 2001 rookie year. If Shipley keeps this up, though, defenses will have to counter. It also suggests that maybe, to improve their passing attack, Palmer should start throwing to Shipley at least more than the second-worst regular tight end in the NFL, rookie Jermaine Gresham.

Individual Defensive Players

I’ll just link to Advanced NFL Stats’ Bengals defense page, instead of including a chart, because honestly, I’m not quite sure which stats would be best to include. My big problem with most of their stats is that they focus on the result of the play and not how the result comes about. On defense, that’s key, and the reason you don’t necessarily rank players by tackles. If a cornerback is tackling a running back, sure, that’s a good result for the CB, but it means the defensive line didn’t do their job.

Robert Geathers appears to be the best defensive lineman on the Bengals, while Rey Maualuga and Brandon Johnson have done well at linebacker, and Chinedum Ndukwe has been the class of the secondary.

Special Teams

Finally (if you’ve read this far), here’s a chart detailing the Bengals’ special teams:

DVOA is percentage above/below average for special teams as a whole; Other columns are points above/below average

The Bengals’ best two special teams units this year have been on field goals and punts. Credit Mike Nugent and Kevin Huber for having good years so far. The other three facets of special teams have been relatively poor, however. My guess is it’s due to poor kickoff and punt coverage, rather than Nugent and the returners.

Overall

The Bengals are certainly talented on offense, if name recognition counts as a talent, though Jordan Shipley has been really good this year. Their bigger problem, however, is defense, and that can’t be solved through talk shows on VS.