Statistical Scouting Report: Baltimore Ravens

his is a series scouting the Steelers’ opponents using all the advanced statistics from Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats I can find. Read and enjoy!

Overall Team Stats

GWP: Generic Win Probability; EPA: Expected Points Added

For new readers, DVOA is calculated by assigning a value to each play compared to the league average, so the Ravens have performed at a level 19.7% better than the average team so far this year. Weighted DVOA puts more emphasis on the last few games, to give a better idea of how the team’s playing right now, so the Ravens are playing better right now than they were earlier in the season. GWP is Advanced NFL Stat’s efficiency stat, and uses several factors to produce the winning percentage a team would have against average competition. EPA measures the total changes in expected points (each down-and-distance situation has a expected point total; for example, a team with 1st-and-10 at the opponent’s 32 is expected to score 3.17 points on average)

Jump for the rest of the analysis and charts!

The Ravens are a good team, in the top half of the league in offense, defense, and special teams, as you might expect from an 8-3 team. Both sites agree that the Ravens are very good, but not elite in any part of the game.

General Offensive Stats

Success Rate: Percentage of plays that result in a positive change in EPA

The two systems generally agree that Baltimore’s offense is solid, but not great. The one anomaly is Advanced NFL Stats’ 25th ranking in rushing offense. Looking at the offensive line stats from Football Outsiders sheds some light on why: the running backs get almost no long rushes (more than 5 yards). Advanced NFL Stats’ metrics depend on long rushes to accumulate the high positive changes in EPA to offset the losses or one-yard gains on first down. The offensive line also has been poor at protecting the quarterback, something that the Steelers must take advantage of, especially with Brett Keisel coming back.

General Defensive Stats

Again, there is general agreement. Both sites show the Ravens’ pass defense as top-notch, and the rush defense as middle of the pack. The Steelers’ rushing attack did well last week against Buffalo’s awful rush defense; maybe they can build on that on Sunday night.

You might be asking yourself, “Why is Baltimore’s Success Rate on defense so awful if they’re so good otherwise?” The answer partially lies in the defensive line stats from Football Outsiders:

Look at that! 80% of the time, on third or fourth-and-short, the running game gets a first down. Hopefully Bruce Arians has noticed this and doesn’t try to get cute on third-and-2 with a screen pass or something. It might be tough with the banged-up o-line, but the stats show that if you need one or two yards against the Ravens’ run defense, you are very likely to get it. They also have been mediocre at rushing the quarterback, which certainly helps the Steelers.

Defensive Matchup Stats (vs. pass and rush)

A lot of good stuff here from Football Outsiders. As Doug Farrar (a good read on Twitter) noted in his Week 13 preview, the Ravens are worst against #1 and #2 receivers, which definitely bodes well for the Steelers’ passing attack, which relies on Mike Wallace and Hines Ward (on a side note, how much does it say about Wallace that I’m typing his name first?). On the rushing side, the Ravens are worst at allowing rushes to the right side, which actually helps the Steelers, whose best rushes, unsurprisingly, have gone to the right end. On the other hand, the possible mismatches on the left side may work against them. Jonathan Scott will have to step in order to prevent tackles for loss.

Individual Offensive Stats

Quarterback

WPA-Win Probability Added

Joe Flacco has made incremental improvements to his game each year since coming into the league in 2008. This year, he can be reasonably argued to be in the top 10 QBs in the league. His league-leading Win Probability Added mainly stems from his big plays coming in close games. Whether you want to make a “clutch” argument or not, his WPA rank last year was 17th, while his EPA rank was 14th. I’m more inclined to think EPA is a better measure of Flacco’s ranking in the league.

Running Backs

Ray Rice has been fairly good for the Ravens this year, while Willis McGahee has negative stats everywhere. LeRon McClain’s high success rate is more a function of small sample size and being used in short-yardage situations than actual good running, though he’s definitely been solid this year.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

As the table shows, this is a team that likes to throw deep. I’d actually point to T.J. Houshmandzadeh as a key player in Sunday’s game. Todd Heap, Anquan Boldin, and Derrick Mason will probably be covered first by the defense, so the matchup against Houshmandzadeh will be key, particularly since most of his passes are deep. Of course, Heap is the most feared receiver on the Ravens, if only for his high catch rate.

Individual Defensive Players

Here’s a link to Advanced NFL Stats’ Ravens team page. As you might expect, Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata have been the Ravens’ most effective defensive players. Chris Carr has probably been the least effective of the Ravens’ defensive backs, so look for the Steelers to target him on occasion.

Special Teams

Finally, here’s a look at the Ravens’ special teams, from Football Outsiders:

If it comes down to field position, both sides will feel pressure, as the Ravens are really good at kickoffs and punts, while they’re really horrible at returning kicks and punts. The Steelers, of course, also have one of the best punters in the league, and are okay at kickoffs. Antonio Brown on kickoff returns may make the difference in the game.

Overall

The Ravens are certainly one of the better teams in the league, and are a well-rounded team as well. The differences in the game will be matchups (on the line and in the secondary), Ravens kickoffs, penalties, and home field advantage. The number of those things that swing the Steelers way will determine whether or not the Steelers win this very important rivalry game.