Steelers-Ravens Statistical Preview Part 2: Ravens Offense vs. Steelers Defense

To get you prepared for Saturday’s big Divisional Round matchup between the Steelers and Ravens, we’re going deep into the advanced stats in three separate posts to see where each team has the advantage. As usual, Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats provide all the number-y goodness.

Since this is part 2, I might as well look at the Ravens offense and Steelers defense. Before I start into the charts, though, a related caveat: so many places I’ve read have cited Joe Flacco’s “won-loss” record in some form, such as this piece that makes the dutiful mention that “Flacco has four career road playoff victories.” Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders makes the statistical argument against that idea in his divisional round preview, but I thought I’d add to that by just quoting the AP headlines from each of those games:

• “5 takeaways help Ravens beat Dolphins 27-9”

• “Ravens edge Titans 13-10”

• “Rice leads Ravens run game to 33-14 win over Pats”

• “Flacco leads Ravens past young Chiefs 30-7”

The first game was dominated by the Ravens defense, the second by the defense and Matt Stover, the third by Ray Rice and the defense. So, every time someone mentions “Flacco’s four road playoff wins”, there are 52 other people, especially the eleven starters on the defensive side of the ball, who should feel disrespected by that.

Now, to the stats after the jump!

Overall

The Steelers defense, in terms of league ranking, is better than the Ravens offense on both rushing and passing, according to both sites. The efficiency stats suggest that the Ravens will have a better time passing the ball than running on Saturday, but that it will be a rough time in general for their offense.

Offensive/Defensive Line Stats

Since the Ravens are 25th in sack rate on offense and the Steelers third on defense, this will be key to the game. The Steelers should have little problem getting to Flacco and forcing him into sacks or poor decisions. The Adjusted Line Yards and Power success advantages for the Steelers are simply more detailed extensions of their top overall rushing defense.

Steelers Defense vs. Types of Receivers

This is certainly telling. The Steelers pass defense is practically average against running backs and third receivers. The Ravens’ top three receivers are Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. I think either Mason or T.J. will make at least one reception for a big gain during the game. I’d also be very wary of Ray Rice coming out of the backfield. Todd Heap probably won’t be a factor in the game, but the fact that he’ll draw a top DB from the Steelers means more chances for someone like Anthony Madison to cover Rice.

Other charts:

Red Zone

By Half

By Down

There isn’t too much of note here. There is a noticeable dropoff for both teams in the second half, but in general it usually comes close to the overall efficiency. The big thing to look for is how the Ravens offense and Steelers defense do on second down. On every distance and type of play on second down, the Ravens offense is ranked higher than the Steelers defense. I’m tempted to just chalk it up to a small sample, but all it takes is one big play to turn the tide of the game, and it’s most likely to come on second down.

The Ravens offense is good, particularly on the pass, but the Steelers defense has consistently ranked at the top of the league in efficiency stats the whole season, and I see no reason that won’t continue on Saturday.