The Four Aces are not That Good

The Philadelphia Phillies have been crowned by numerous pundits as this year’s pick to win the World Series.  Some think that they will win it all with ease and have assembled the best rotation EVER. I hate this.  I despise how the 24 hour sports media shows fill up airtime with ridiculous rhetoric and unsubstantiated claims of greatness.  Remember Bryce Harper gracing the cover of Sports Illustrated at age 16?  Or Jeff Francouer on the same cover with the subtitle The Natural?  I say before we crown anyone as the best ever, or even above replacement level, we should let them play out their career.  In baseball, there are too many variables.  With that said, I still don’t think the Phillies match up with any of the Braves’ rotations of the late 90s.

For arguments sake I’m going to take the Braves 1999 rotation (because its my favorite but not the best…according to the unbiased VORP figures below the 1999 Braves top 4 is the 6th Best ever) and compare it to the fabulous four that the Phillies have managed to assemble:

Greg Maddux vs Roy Halladay:  Maddux is coming off a year in which he pitched 251 innings with a 2.21 ERA in the height of the steroid era!  Remember that 1998 is the year of Sammy Sosa and Mark McGuire.  Maddux also has 4 Cy Young’s in his closet at this point.  Halladay is coming off a year in which he pitched 250.2 innings with a 2.42 ERA.  He’s got two Cy Young’s (including last years).  Its a push at this stage in their careers.

Tom Glavine vs Cliff Lee:  Glavine coming off a year in which he won the Cy Young, and posted a 2.42 ERA.  Cliff Lee is coming off a year in which he posted a 3.12 ERA and had 12 wins.  Advantage- Glavine.

John Smoltz vs Roy Oswalt: Oswalt’s 2010: 2.76 ERA 13-13.  John Smoltz’s 1998: 2.90 ERA, 17-3. Given the Cy Young in Smoltz’s cabinet, Advantage Smoltz.

Kevin Millwood vs Cole Hamels:  Millwood is the more unproven of the two so I’d like to give his 1999, first full year as a starter numbers:  2.68 ERA, 18-7, .996 WHIP.  Hamels’ 2010: 3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 12-11.  Advantage Millwood.

So we have three advantages going into their resepective seasons leaning toward the Braves.  Throw in the 7 Cy Young Awards on the 1999 Braves side vs the 3 on the 2011 Phillies and the advantage sweeps to the Braves.  Since we’re doing this all based on potential, it would do the reader an injustice to fail to point out that the 2011 Phillies’ rotation members could all have a career year and land as the top rotation ever.  The Four Aces could just as easily get injured or prove ineffective this year.  Cole Hamels could return to his 2009 self (4.32 ERA) or Cliff Lee could return to the anonymity he enjoyed in his early years in Cleveland. How can we know?

Through their first five years, Eric Chavez and Derek Jeter put up eerily similar numbers.

Using WAR, we can value a players overall value to his team.  Chavez had a cumulative WAR through his age 28 season of 35.2.  Jeter’s WAR through his age 28 season: 35.1.  Interesting numbers when we look at them now.  There was little reason to believe that Chavez would soon meet a career decline that would have him at 572 ABs after 2006.  Jeter’s career went the other direction and 6 All Star games later, is in the discussion for best shortstop ever and best Yankee ever.  The point is that with baseball, like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are going to get.  On paper, yes, the Phillies could be in the conversation for best rotation ever at the end of the year but lets let them play out the year before we even begin the discussion.

Thus far I have outlined how they stack up with the 1999 Braves and that potential on paper does not guarantee success.  I also wish to show that the Four Aces aren’t as good as we all think they are (Ok Halladay is THAT good– dude has finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting each of the past 5 years).  The other three have issues however.  Remember Cole Hamels’ 2009?  When he gave up 206 hits and had a WAR of 1.9?  Yeah that was not that long ago… Roy Oswalt: Had a 4.12 ERA in 2009 but, it was because he was disinterested in Houston.  Yeah, he had 14 million excuses as to why he was disinterested.  Rookies or immature hotshots become disinterested; not guys vying for a spot as one of the game’s best, or a guy getting paid $14,000,000 to lead a group of younger players.  We need to not forget that Cliff Lee has had only three successful years, sporting a sub 3.00 ERA exactly once.  A true ace does more than that.

I’m recycling information now but I think it bares repeating and shows just how far away the Phillies are from utter dominance.  Compare the career ERA’s of the Phillies’ top four starters with those of the 2011 Braves’ top four and we get these numbers: 3.85, 3.18, 3.53, 3.32 vs. 3.85, 3.16, 3.52, 3.42.  Other teams compare quite well with the Four Aces in Philadelphia.  They’re simply not that good.

-Sean Morash