Having won nine of the last 10 games, the 24-17 Hawks have successfully pivoted back toward the playoffs. Paul Millsap is reportedly off the trade market, and potentially for good.
Nevertheless, the Hawks appeared ready to bail on Millsap two months into 2016-17, so who’s to say they won’t reconsider blowing things up again in the near future? A simple losing streak could result in management taking phone calls from fired-up front offices hot to nab the All-Star forward. After all, Atlanta just completed their second trade in as many weeks, shipping Mo Williams and a bucket of cash to Denver before signing Gary Neal to a 10-day contract. New addition Mike Dunleavy struggled in New York on Monday, but the 36-year-old wing has looked like a solid replacement (and a more well-rounded contributor) than soon-to-be 36-year-old Kyle Korver. Atlanta did well to snag a first-round pick in that deal, heavily protected or not.
Even if the Hawks are convinced Millsap will re-sign this summer, at 32 years old it’s fair to ask how much longer the late bloomer will be playing at an All-Star level. Most often, Millsap beats defenders for buckets on a below-the-rim basis, relying on his shooting, ball-handling, wide array of fakes, post moves, and overall skill on offense. Given his style of play, it’s entirely possible he can sustain his current level on that end for a while. Of course, what makes Millsap so valuable is his ability to get the job done on both ends. He moves nimbly on defense, anticipates the action, slides his feet capably, and contests shots at the rim. Whether Millsap has two months, two years, or more of prime-Paul left in him, only time will tell, but it’s often on defense where every step lost is missed the most. Korver is evidence of that. As wings continue to shift to the 4-spot, the position is only becoming more explosive and quick off the bounce. Millsap’s fit on win-now squads in need of a stretch-4 is undeniable, and so a team like the Toronto Raptors acquiring Millsap definitely makes the most sense.
Last summer, I suggested the Utah Jazz offer up a package centered around Derrick Favors, and while the better teams are more likely to trade for Millsap, this trip to the trade machine will look at suitors who aren’t in the current playoff picture. Perhaps there are some clubs with fewer wins who have interest in trading for Millsap, a player whose professionalism could help build the culture on the court and in the locker room. In the day of the ever-exploding cap, maybe Paul Millsap is a unique star who will be worthy of $30 million per year even as he inches closer to 35 yeas of age.
Not Completely Out of the Question
Philadelphia – Ersan Ilyasova, Jahlil Okafor, 2017 first round pick for Millsap
Millsap could theoretically be hidden on defense if he slows down in his mid-30s, and his shooting touch fits well alongside Joel Embiid and the soon-to-be healthy Ben Simmons. If Millsap gets traded, Dwight Howard would be the next domino to fall, and Okafor could start on a young team without expectations. Mike Budenholzer might be one of the few coaches who can coax Okafor into moving the ball quickly instead of instinctually catching the ball, palming it with one hand, and waving it around.
The biggest question here is whether the Sixers would be willing to give up a first-round pick for a guy who they could conceivably snatch this summer in free agency. The prospects of the Lakers keeping their top-3 protected pick continue to improve, so the Hawks could demand the 76ers’ pick. With that being said, adding Millsap would worsen the quality of Philly’s own selection while increasing the odds that L.A. gets lucky.
Orlando – Nik Vucevic and Mario Hezonja for Millsap
Assuming the type of return suggested above in the Sixers section is not available, the Hawks might have to settle for actual players instead of picks. After trading Victor Oladipo for soon-to-be free agent Serge Ibaka and adding Bismack Biyombo for big money, Vucevic is expendable. With that being said, Ibaka could sign elsewhere in July, and the Magic offered Millsap a four year, $80 million deal back in 2015. Millsap is even more versatile than Ibaka, and it’d be interesting to see how much better Biyombo, Aaron Gordon, and Millsap meshed than the current core. Mario Hezonja hasn’t gotten much time in Orlando either.
Charlotte – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Frank Kaminsky, and Roy Hibbert for Tim Hardaway, Jr. and Millsap
The Hornets will probably turn things around and sneak into the playoffs, but it wouldn’t take much for them to miss out. The problem with this hypothetical is that Charlotte would likely be hard-pressed to hand over MKG. It makes sense since he is so much younger and the team’s best overall defender. Plus, it wouldn’t be easy to accommodate Millsap’s salary demands.
Minnesota – Gorgui Dieng, Shabazz Muhammad, Brandon Rush, and 2017 first-round pick for Millsap
Similarly to Philly, Minny would be a place where Millsap’s talent would be maximized and much-appreciated alongside its young unicorn center. Again, the question here is whether the Wolves would be willing to forfeit a lotto pick in a highly-touted draft class, and if not, whether a future pick would suffice instead.
Sacramento – Willie Cauley-Stein, Skal Labissiere, and Rudy Gay for Millsap
The Kings are fighting for that eighth seed, and they don’t have much use for most of their recent young draft picks. Gay is reportedly set to opt out this summer. Meanwhile, Millsap and Cousins is a force to be reckoned with and fun to think about even if we’ll never see it.
Denver – Jusuf Nurkic, Will Barton, Darrell Arthur, and 2017 first-round pick for Millsap
The Nuggets are on a roll recently, but the idea of adding Millsap and hoping to re-sign him in the offseason might be their best bet at fielding a competitive team alongside Nikola Jokic in the near future. Barton fits the profile for wings that Atlanta loves to get their hands on, Nurkic would take over once Dwight was dealt, and Arthur is a solid, defensive-minded veteran whom the Hawks would likely prefer over Kenneth Faried in order to make the salaries match.
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