The Boston Red Sox wrapped up the 2012 season a woeful 69-93, good for last place in the AL East. There was no shortage of storylines for last year’s Sox, just a shortage of wins. After The Collapse of 2011, Boston picked up where it left off, artfully piloted to it’s demise by an ever-capricious Bobby Valentine. The front office embarrassed itself with confusion and infighting as much as the players did with their on-filed performance. The 100th anniversary of Fenway Park was a year to forget. But 2013 promises to be at least a little different. In a revamped AL East, the Sox find themselves true underdogs for the first time in years. Fans wax nostalgic at the memory of Dirt Dogs and ‘Cowboy Up’ hoping Johnny Gomes can channel some Kevin Millar.
Projected Lineup:
- Jacoby Ellsbury Cf
- Shane Victorino Rf
- Dustin Pedroia 2b
- David Ortiz DH
- Mike Napoli 1b
- Will Middlebrooks 3b
- Johnny Gomes Lf
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
- Stephen Drew ss
The Rotation:
- Jon Lester
- Clay Bucholtz
- Ryan Dempster
- John Lackey
- Felix Dubront
Strengths:
Bullpen: The Red Sox are in the conversation for best bullpen in baseball. They lack the record-book closer of say Atlanta or Washington, but they have quietly assembled a plethora of established, quality back end arms. Joel Hannrahan leads a trio of 20-save closers, while Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara are coming off sub-2.00 ERA seasons, and Craig Breslow is the smartest pitcher in baseball.
Manager: You don’t get 180’s much more complete than Bobby Valentine to John Farrell. Farrell is a relic of Boston’s cleaner, more measured past. The pitching coach for three years under Terry Francona, he saw the good times but wasn’t around for either The Collapse or the collapsed season it preceded. He looks to restore dignity to the clubhouse and the Red Sox’ name.
Contract Years: Jacoby Elsbury and Mike Napoli are unrestricted free agents-to-be playing for enormous contracts. Stephen Drew is on a one year flyer, playing for big money. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Joel Hannrahan, and Koji Uehara–all UFAs next year. Andrew Bailey, Junichi Tazawa, Alfredo Aceves, Fanklin Morales, and Daniel Bard are all arbitration-eligible in 2014. That’s four starting position players, the closer, and the top four set-up men all playing to get paid next year.
Weaknesses:
Rotation: Some might argue that “question mark” is a better label for Boston’s front five, but if past behavior is the best indicator of future behavior, then recent-past behavior is the best indicator of all. It will take major turnarounds/returns to form for the the Sox’s staff to prove the label wrong. But all hope is indeed not lost. Lester was once a top class Ace; the precipitator of his 2012 ills remains a mystery. Bucholz must avoid the injuries that have befallen his last two years, but he too has top of the rotation stuff. Both have No-Hitters to their name. Lackey is thin, and hoping Tommy John is his saving grace, while Dempster just needs to eat innings and keep his ERA below 4.00. He’s done that four of the last five years.
Chemistry: The ‘past behavior’ axiom rears ugly once more. Manager John Farrell is certainly better suited than was Valentine to the marriage counseling requisite of the Boston job, but the media still hovers, not quite ready to give up on the faint aromas of chicken, beer, and blood still lingering in the Sox clubhouse. Big egos and big contracts in a big market have big time explosive potential.
Frailty: The 2012 Red Sox sent 27 players to the DL in a total of 34 separate stints. They lost 1,234 player days and 40.9% of their payroll to those injuries. All those stats were runaway league leaders. Worse still, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino, the two biggest offseason imports, are injury risks. The thin-ish Sox lineup will rely heavily on production from its projected starters, and that’s a gamble with this roster. With Clay Bucholz delayed, and David Ortiz yet to run on back to back days, concern is already mounting.
Storylines:
New manager, new players, new result?
Emergence, resurgence, recovery: Can Will Middlebrooks do for a season what he did for 75 games last year? Will Jon Lester pitch like a survivor or a patient? Can John Lackey be Stephen Strasburg?
Front office drama. Who runs this team, the GM or the CEO?
Prediction:
86-76, 4th Place, AL East. The decent record will be good enough to eclipse only the Orioles in this behemoth of a division. There are too many health issues, question marks, and ticking time bombs for this team to have a miracle year. They will win some big games, have some big moments, and generally redeem the effort of a year ago–but they’ll still finish behind the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Rays (in no particular order, but possibly that order).
Bold Predictions:
- Jacoby Elsbury has a very-good-but-not-epic year (.288/.338/.451 with 22 HR, 68 RBI, 90 R, 26 SB) and leaves via trade in June.
- Mike Napoli splits the difference between his monstrous 2011 and his torpid 2012 (.270/.360/.540, 27 HR, 88 RBI) and signs elsewhere at season’s end.
- Stephen Drew disappoints mightily and Jose Iglesias takes over at short. He hits .212 and deserves (but does not win) a Gold Glove. Xandar Bogaerts is a September call-up, is ridiculous, and Iglesias is traded for scraps.
-Ari Glantz
Stat of the Day: The Red Sox and Tigers are the only two teams to boast two starting pitchers with No-Hitters to their name.
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