The 2013 non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone. As last year’s Dodgers-Red Sox deal can attest, big things can still happen, but if we are to trust more dated history most teams are done. With so much hinging on future prospect performance, it’s too early to crown overall winners and losers, but let’s take a look at the short term.
WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER
1) San Diego Padres: I may be one of the few who still thinks that Ian Kennedy can be a very successful pitcher at the big league level going forward. Kennedy has struggled since he finished 4th in the Cy Young voting in 2011 (5.23 ERA this year). His propensity for serving up the long ball and his walk rate (3.48 BB/9) both contribute to his poor performance. However, when you consider what the Padres gave up for a Major League No. 5 starter at current (with a chance to improve his command and regain dominance), it must be a win for a team mostly out of contention. Parting with a left handed specialist (Joe Thatcher), a middle relief prospect, and a competitive balance pick will not come back to bite the Padres. Plus, PetCo Park alone will get the ERA below 5.00.
2) Houston Astros: They managed to turn two of the more famous known players on their team into a couple of prospects with some actual promise. Justin Maxwell, who at age 29 and with a career .222 average has seen his star fade significantly, netted the Astros RHP prospect Kyle Smith. The 20 year old Smith impressed scouts in his debut season (2012), posting a 2.94 ERA across 13 starts in the Midwest League, allowing less than a hit per inning and striking out over 11 batters per nine. In 2013, he’s posted a 2.85 ERA and according to reports does it more with attitude than pure stuff, he sits 93-ish and shows a plus breaking pitch. Bud Norris was the team’s unequivocal Ace, but one who was arguably on the decline thanks to his power repertoire and age (28), netted fringy OF prospect LJ Hoes, a second prospect, and a draft pick. I like the asset collection that the Astros continue to pursue. They will be good…eventually.
3) Atlanta Braves: I covered their trade to acquire Scott Downs here.
4) Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays got some much needed bullpen help in the form of Jesse Crain and while it’s hard to classify them as winners without knowing who will be heading back to the White Sox, I like the deal–and trust their decision making based on the past. This is one of those “They’re the Rays, we always like what they do with pitchers” classifications.
5) Red Sox/White Sox/Tigers: I like the Jake Peavy/Avisail Garcia/Jose Iglesias trade for all three teams. Each made the trade for the right reasons and rarely is there a trade where motives are made so obvious for all teams considered. If I were to pick a winner and loser, it might be that the White Sox are winners for acquiring Garcia, who puts on absolute shows in BP, with the Tigers serving as losers for acquiring a no-bat infielder in exchange for Garcia. This deal will be judged on how Garcia turns out, or if any of the lottery tickets that the White Sox received turn out to be anything.
LOSER IDIOTS
1) Texas Rangers: The Rangers need offense. Especially with the likely suspension of Nelson Cruz this week. That they were desperate for offense was obvious from reports that they called the Braves on Brian McCann, and by made it public knowledge they’d listen to pitches for anyone on their roster (including recently acquired Matt Garza). The Rangers were unable to pull off any trade and that is not good for a team currently five games back in their division. They needed to do something to help their pursuit of the A’s. The impending loss of Nelson Cruz cannot be understated in this evaluation.
2) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels waived the white flag on their 2013 season when they put the clearly-hurting-all-season-but-still-playing-through-it-because-I-am-a-man Albert Pujols on the DL last week, but were unable to fully raise the white flag on the season because of a need to stay relevant in 2014. This is a team that wants to be competitive in 2014, but made no real moves to improve their roster for next year. There’s still time between now and March 2014 (nearly six months in fact) to improve the team, but two full years have proven that this rotation and strong-ish lineup do not make a playoff team. The best indicator of future performance is past performance; time to try a different architecture.
3) Kansas City Royals: If I liked the Justin Maxwell trade for the Astros, that means I have to dislike it for the Royals. I don’t get the appeal of winning 82 games this year. It is that middle-futility that makes teams average for a long time. The Royals are 52-51 this year because Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas still haven’t turned into corner infield monsters (these things take time), and because Wade Davis has a 5.50 ERA (and 1.78 WHIP) across 20 starts. They’re a pretty good young team with more holes to fill before they become a good team. Justin Maxwell can be good, but he also is a low-OBP 29 year old outfielder. I just don’t think the promise of finishing a few games above .500 is worth a 20-year old who has never posted an ERA above 3.00 in the minors.
4) The Fans: I love the trade deadline in the Twitter age, but this year the biggest and best rumors revolved around the desperate Rangers looking to move anyone for anyone. Their desperation for some sort of impact bat underscores the lack of talent made available at this deadline. Good free agents at season’s end, always amid trade rumors, were largely on teams in contention. The best pitchers available (Garza, Peavy, Norris) were the only pitchers available. Only four trades were made on July 31st, tied for the fewest in the last 10 years. Fangraphs Dave Cameron summed the Bud Norris trade as such: “The Astros collect more youth while the Orioles make a marginal improvement and hope it works. This is the 2013 trade deadline in a nutshell.” I couldn’t agree more. We’re not LOSER IDIOTS for loving baseball, but we definitely lost this trade deadline because it really wasn’t all that exciting.
-Sean Morash
GIF of the Day: In Tuesday night’s game between the Marlins and Mets (who cares who won?) reliever Chad Qualls entered a tie game in the 8th inning and gave up a leadoff triple. After escaping the inning giving up no runs, Qualls did this:
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