Washington Nationals Season Preview

The Washington Nationals will open the 2012 season as the dark horse of the NL East.  With an improved rotation, a healthy Stephen Strasburg, and a maturing Bryce Harper on the horizon, the Nationals look poised to make a splash as a National League contender this year.  The only thing stopping the Nationals from finally making it over their playoff hump is their underachieving offense.  Can their donkeys perform to their potential and power the Nationals past the Phillies and Braves?

Projected Lineup:

1. Danny Espinosa (2B)
2. Jason Werth (RF)
3. Ryan Zimmerman (3B)
4. Michael Morse (LF)
5. Adam LaRoche (1B)
6. Wilson Ramos (C)
7. Roger Bernadina (CF)
8. Ian Desmond (SS)

Projected Rotation:

• Stephen Strasburg
• Gio Gonzalez
• Edwin Jackson
• Jordan Zimmermann
• John Lannan

Strengths:

The Nationals have a solid pitching staff from the top down.  Strasburg is an elite ace and two years out of Tommy John surgery has him poised for his first full healthy year in the Bigs.  The acquisitions of Gonzalez and Jackson give the Nationals above average 2 and 3 starters that can compete with most other teams’ staffs.  This leaves Jordan Zimmermann as potentially the best #4 starter in the NL and John Lannan (the former ace of the staff a la 2009) as a solid inning eating #5 starter.  The rotation is not only deep, but they can throw hard as well with the average fastball velocity of the top four starters at a blistering 94.1 mph.  This will produce a lot of strikeouts for the Nat’s rotation.

Relieving the rotation, the Nationals have one of the best set up men in Tyler Clippard (1.83 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) paving the way for an up and coming elite closer in the MLB with Drew Storen (43 saves).  With the addition of Brad Lidge, the bullpen looks to be just as talented and deep as any in the Major Leagues.

The Nationals also have youth and potential on their side.  Other than a few key veterans who would still be young on a team such as the Yankees or Phillies, the Nationals have a bunch of young players who should carry a lot of energy to the field even through the dog days of summer.  The Nats are hoping for some decent development in their young studs such as Espinosa and Ramos, while banking on key rebound years for Zimmerman and Werth.  On top of that they are looking for some midseason help from Bryce Harper as soon as he learns how to play centerfield in AAA and fills in that hole and puts a jolt into their lineup.

And while Michael Morse may start the year on the DL, his breakout season was no fluke and should still be the top run producer on the Nationals and one of the most powerful hitters in baseball.

Weaknesses:

Scoring runs.  While the Nationals have a seemingly strong lineup, they still find ways to not score runs.  Last year they finished a dismal 12^th in the NL in runs scored.  There were many games last year that the offense was completely anemic even against average opponent pitchers.  They simply cannot hope to contend in a tough NL East if they do not score more runs.  It is up to their big name guys Zimmerman and Werth to put up big years so the Nats do not have to force Harper too early into the Bigs with the burden of being their offensive savior.

Storylines:

Bryce Harper has been the talk of spring training.  While the Nationals need him to learn a new position in the minors, they will call him up at some point this year to start and produce right away.  Will the 20 year old Harper be up for the challenge?

Stephen Strasburg’s recent Tommy John surgery still has the Nationals front office wanting to be as careful as possible with him.  Their plan is to limit him to 160 innings on the season.  However if the Nationals are in the middle of a playoff race, and if Strasburg is straight dealing throughout the year, will they follow through with their plan on shutting him down as the go down the stretch?

Will Zimmerman and Werth be able to bounce back and play up to their rich long term contracts?  The fate of the team rests on their performance.

Prediction:

85-78, 3^rd in the NL East.  While the Nationals have the tools in place to compete, they still play in the same division as the Braves and Phillies.  While they are set to be the powerhouse of the NL East for the years to come, their only hope of making the playoffs this year is by fighting for one of the now two wild card spots.

Bold Predictions:

• Bryce Harper will be 20-20 with an above .300 avg while everyone hates him because he will show up the pitcher on his first home run.
• No top 4 pitcher in the rotation will have over 15 wins despite throwing over 25 quality starts each.
• Tyler Clippard will have 15 wins.
• Zimmerman bounces back while Werth continues to crumble under his huge contract.
• Teddy will still not win a Presidential Race.