Weekly Scout’s Take – August 25th Edition

Well we’re just past the halfway point of the preseason and things just continue to get more interesting as the weeks go by.

Minnesota loses it top target in the air for half the season and the wild story behind that. Some factors on the upcoming labor lockout, an 18 game season, and why it could turn out to be a better situation.

Some interesting preseason notes and more to follow, so lets dive right into this edition of The Weekly Scout’s Take.

Recently announced, Sidney Rice underwent hip surgery to fix an ongoing issue that’s been there since the end of last season. People have asked “Why didn’t he just get the surgery immediately?” Well, when you have a QB who’s wondering whether or not to come back, its hard to convince him when your main passing target is a huge question mark for the season.

Due to the fact that it’s a more in-depth surgery, the Vikings will be without their top passing threat for the first 8-9 weeks of the regular season. Considering how the Vikings’ season opens up in the first half of the year, this could really put a serious damper on their hopes of being one of the top seeds in the NFC again. Look at how their season opens:

@ New Orleans

vs. Miami

vs. Detroit

Bye Week

@ New York Jets

vs. Dallas

@ Green Bay

@ New England

vs. Arizona

*This is not an easy schedule by any means. In the first half, you’re playing 6 playoff teams from last year and a Miami team that I see being a sleeper for a wild card this year. The only real break they have outside of the Bye week is at home vs. Detroit, and I don’t see that being a walk in the park. Now I know a lot will say Arizona is not the passing juggernaut they were last year, and you’re right. It’s a winnable game without Rice, but starting the season running through this gauntlet can have lasting effects all season.

This is going to put a substantial amount of pressure to be able to find ways to win without your main deep threat. If they are going to win, surprisingly, it will be on Adrian Peterson’s shoulders, not Favre’s. Percy Harvin’s migraines are still a big mystery and no one knows when and how long these attacks will keep him out. You have Bernard Berrian who is still a good hands receiver, but by no means will pull safeties over to his side of the field. If they are going to tackle this mammoth of a start, it has to be AP reminding us of why his nickname is “AD: All Day”.

When he came into the league, everyone thought this was the next coming of Jim Brown the way he ran: Physical, fast, and gave opposing defenses hell trying to bring him down. Now, he has seemed to run so hard that he forgets to hang on to the ball at times (I.E. – See 2009 NFC Championship game for full examples). His fumbling problem plus the emergence of Chris Johnson have made a lot of people look at him more as a great RB with questionable hands instead of the beast he is. Remember, this guy gets great yardage after contact. His speed is unquestioned and his ability to make defenders miss is a huge reason why he needs to be the man in the Twin Cities in order to get through the first half of the season. The fumbles are a fixable problem, ask Tiki Barber. If he learns to run with the ball closer to the body instead of the exposed way he does now, I think he’ll take the rushing title this year. A lot of people up north are counting on you AP, not including the millions of fantasy players out there that still believe in you.

*I wanted to touch on this labor situation that’s brewing pretty badly in the background. With a pending lockout that I truly believe is coming, there’s been a lot of speculation on both sides and it seems that both the players and the owners are light-years apart from seeing eye to eye. I think there can be a common medium that would work well for both sides, its just getting the owners and players to come to an agreement on this.

The first big issue is of course, money. Team owners are asking for players to take an 18% salary decrease due to rising player costs and revenues staying about the same year over year. With the only team that legally has to open the financial books for the league, the Green Bay Packers, being a smaller market team and not reporting as much profit as other teams (We all know Dallas and New England are bringing in money by the barrel, C’mon Jerry.), the only evidence the Players’ Union has to go off of doesn’t support their cause.

Obviously, that will never fly with the players due to how much of their bodies they sacrifice for the love of the game and the entertainment for the fans. From a players’ perspective, it makes perfect sense. These guys give more in my opinion, than any other sport in the world physically. The effects that it takes on their bodies last long after their careers have ended and yet, they make less on average than your star basketball or baseball players in which the amount of physical contact and risk of injury is lower. You can’t ask a guy who is sacrificing his physical well being to take a pay cut and still give his all week in and week out, it just won’t happen.

The owners answer to not having to deal with a pay loss is to go to an 18 game season. With that, they can get additional game revenues, marketing and TV coverage and advertising. Now players look at this and say “That’s 2 more weeks of risking my body and most likely shortening my career”. From that standpoint, it would be hard to convince players to give it their all 2 more weeks a year. The idea that the league and owners have proposed is going to an 18 game season and shortening the preseason by 2 weeks. This can have good and bad effects. I’ll start with the bad.

With your 1st string starters on the field less, it hurts building a connection against opposing teams, basically simulating the regular season. Continuity and rhythm in your starting offense and defense is vital to getting a team ready, and you take away the chance at doing it, you sacrifice not having the best team on the field by Week 1.

Other obvious factors would be the issue of careers being shortened. 18 games equals to 2 more games a year that they are used to playing, and therefore causing a bigger risk of losing players to injury more often. If the idea by the league is to eliminate “bad football” by shortening preseason, you are potentially opening up Pandora’s Box by costing a team a chance at losing a star contributor for the season and giving a franchise a full season of “bad football”.

However, there can be some upsides to this. For the fan, 18 games is a longer NFL season. Any way that the long stretch from the end of February to August gets cuts down will make every football fan happy. I know in an ideal world, people would love to have football year round. However, the people that show up on the field every Sunday are human, and no way would they last. You want to hear about careers becoming flashes in the pan, that would be a quick way to do it.

For teams, an additional 2 regular season games would bring in a considerable amount of extra revenue that they aren’t used to getting now. I understand that some franchises are struggling financially so this would give them a chance to at least provide aid to teams that are hurting. Hopefully the profit-sharing agreement in the NFL continues in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, otherwise you will see teams moved or dissolved all together. The die hard fans in Buffalo might be cheering for the Los Angeles Bills if they can’t keep Ralph Wilson’s baby financially afloat.

Along with all this, the NFL Players Union can finally use this as leverage to get players more guaranteed money in their contracts. All along, players compare their contracts between NBA and MLB contracts where the money is fully guaranteed. Yet because of the lingering issues with injury in football, no owner wants to sign a fully guaranteed contract in the NFL because the player could go down in game 1 and they’re obligated to pay the guy for no production. The amount of leverage would lean in favor of the Union and they can move another step closer to getting money similar to what other sport’s athletes are making.

The 18 game season has a lot of upside, but it has to be done right. First and foremost, if they are to do it that way, they need to add a second Bye Week in the schedule. You want to minimize risk of injury and keep games competitive the whole way through, you have to make sure to keep your players healthy. Imagine being in an 18 game season and having a bye week at week 4, the team would be completely drained and running on empty by the season’s end.

Additionally, you have to allow rosters to be expanded. A 53 man roster most likely won’t cut it, due to additional exposure to injury. Bringing the roster up to something around a 60 man roster, or even expanding the practice squad numbers, would help keep guys in reserve in case a player goes down for injury. With the higher numbers however, it would make scouting players much more difficult for whom to keep on the team due to lower preaseason games. Essentially, rookies got 2 games to prove they belong or it could be an early exit.

I don’t want to see a lockout happen, but it is looking closer and closer to a reality. The league and owners are more than comfortable due to cleverly negotiated contracts with television affiliates. Regardless whether the games are played next year or not, the league and owners will be paid on the contracts as if the games are being played. Talk about a great deal on their end. The only people getting hung out to dry in this situation? The players and the fans.

*I don’t know if it’s other surrounding markets that are being overwhelmed with the Albert Haynesworth/Mike Shanahan drama, or it’s just because I’m in a local market to the D.C. area. I am sick of hearing about it, and I’m sure everyone else is. Haynesworth is saying he has rhabdomyolysis, a rapid breakdown of the muscles under heat and strenuous activity that causes muscle fibers enter into your bloodstream. Now, that’s perfectly believeable. A lot of athletes have a similar cause. If you come into training camp overweight and not prepared, your body is going to fight much harder with the workouts and it will cause minor cases of this. Now, they have multiple ways of identifying this and helping to deal with it. I’ve read stories about a group of teens in Oregon who had extreme cases in which it actually caused them to require emergency surgery due to serious muscle damage. If he’s that bad off, move him to Injured Reserve or the Physically Unable to Perform List, and move on.

I can’t see Haynesworth lasting the entire season in D.C. Its getting pretty clear that Shanahan is not dealing with his attitude and the way he’s disrupting camp, and I can’t see a treaty being reached anytime soon between these two. If you want to get some things corrected in your camp Mike, get him out now. He’s become a toxin to your locker room; much like what he complains is running through his own bloodstream.

Just wanted to touch on some final notes for this week’s news and preseason:

I think Ben Roethlisberger is moving in the right direction. Good for him. His former coach, Bill Cowher, has spoken out about his maturity levels and him doing well for the team and keeping himself focused on what he needs to do. I don’t know if it will be good enough for Roger Goodell to lift the suspension early, but he’s doing and saying all the right things. Keep doing what you’re doing Ben, the less we see your name coming up in articles and tabloids, the better your chances get.

I can’t tell you how many different articles I’ve seen saying Darrelle Revis is going to end his holdout and then I’ll see one released immediately afterwards saying he’s not going to end his holdout. It’s amazing that all these “sources” can get this information so mixed up. We thought he was about to be signed, then it turns out its Nick Mangold who got the contract extension. I personally expect to see Revis hold out until about week 3. The first 3 weeks of the Jets regular season, they see Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, and Brandon Marshall, all in that order. If the Jets start out in a slump or get beat consistently by these guys, expect to hear Revis and the team “suddenly” reach a deal.

Tough luck hits early for 2 bad teams last year. Donovan McNabb for the Washington Redskins gets hurt and will not be in the most important preseason game and starter A.J. Feeley for the St. Louis Rams went down and rookie Sam Bradford will get the start behind a very shaky offensive line. The Donovan injury I worry about a little more right now since the NFC West isn’t exactly a monster of a division. Donovan’s had ankle injury issues in the past, plus you need all the time you can get in a new offense set in by Shanahan. With Trent Williams, the new LT set to guard McNabb’s blindside, having some rough starts at camp, I really hope he can change his approach since he starts off with a heck of a challenge in week 1 at home against the Cowboys. He’ll be seeing plenty of Demarcus Ware early and often, I guarantee it.

I know this isn’t exactly an NFL story, but it was a great program regardless for any sports fan. I watched the ESPN Special 30 for 30: Michael Rides the Bus. Excellent story and insight on when Michael Jordan stepped away from the game of basketball to pursue a dream after his father was murdered in 1994. The world’s most electric player at that time and the dedication he had to something that no one thought he was capable of doing shows the true heart Michael had, not just being a great basketball player.