Weekly Scouts Take: November 18th Edition

Brad ChildressIt’s official.  Any team that thinks they might be the best in the NFL, prepare for them to lose the following week.  The parity of this season is unlike any other, and it claimed a couple victims this week. 

We take a look at some of the coaches right now whose seats are getting hotter by the second.  A new look team who only changed up one position plus some humble pie for another one, plus one of the worst wins in the past week’s roundup all in this week’s edition of the Weekly Scout’s Take!

 

 

**Just when you think that the cream of the NFL is going to rise to the top, someone comes along and lops the top off so you can’t tell who specifically stands head and shoulders above the rest. 

For people that are into sports betting, this has got to be one of the worst seasons ever for you.  For fans that love wondering who’s going to win week in and week out and love stiff competition, this is the season for you. 

Last season, we had the Colts and the Saints who were on a crash course for a heads up match in Miami in Super Bowl XLIV.  Both were 10-0 and seemingly looked unstoppable.  Both had dynamic offenses, quarterbacks playing at ridiculous levels, and defenses that were overly stingy at giving points away.

This year…yeah, not so much.  One of the top defenses in the league currently resides with the San Diego Chargers, who are right now sitting at an “impressive” 4-5 record.  Sure, you’ve got the Steelers and the Jets who play great defense, but both have shown real signs of cracking.  Although, I will give the Jets credit, they’ve held their own the past couple weeks, being the only team in history to win 2 road games that both went into overtime.  Is it resilience or just luck?  I’d like to think luck but I’d have to say they’re playing clutch football, and that’s a great sign when January and February start to come around.

As for the Steelers, well they hit a massive roadblock by the name of Tom Brady.  Tom and company went into Pittsburgh on Sunday night and essentially ran through them and made the game a lot more one-sided than the score reflects.  Tom’s mastery of playing in Heinz Field is a very tough feat.  I’ve always said that Heinz Field is one of the worst home field advantages to have.  For starters, they have a die-hard fan base comparable to the likes of Dallas, Kansas City, and Oakland.  All you see when the game starts up is terrible towels flying everywhere.

Secondly, the field is typically destroyed by the time the Steelers play on Sunday.  A lot of people don’t know, but Heinz Field is actually played on 3 consecutive days.  A local Pittsburgh high school uses the field on Fridays, the University of Pittsburgh gets their shot on Saturday, and then finally the Steelers come marching in on Sunday.  You can always tell just by looking at the grass prior to kickoff how bad it is.  That’s what makes Tom’s dominance over this recent Steelers team more impressive.  Pittsburgh plays hard-nosed defense, solid against the run, and is very tight in the Red-Zone. 

Tom had no problems hanging 39 points against one of the top 5 defenses in the league.  I’d like to say that the Patriots are back to the top of the pecking order in the NFL, but I can’t exactly forget the shellacking they received at the hands of Bill Belichick’s former assistant, Eric Mangini.  They were outmatched in every facet and I’m sure upcoming opponents are dissecting that film for every matchup against the Pats from here until season’s end.

So who’s the best in the league?  I don’t think there is one.

 

**Speaking of the best teams in the league, let’s shift over to the NFC where the New York Giants got beat up at home by the Dallas Cowboys.  For those that haven’t been following too heavily, Dallas fired their head coach last week and replaced with interim head coach Jason Garrett. 

Jason’s a very intellectual guy, lacks personality, but understands the X’s and O’s of the game.  He, at one point, was one of the hottest coaching prospects in the game.  Jerry Jones gave him a substantial payraise to stay and be the offensive coordinator of the Cowboys in hopes that he’d be the future of the organization. 

Jason was Troy Aikman’s backup on the team of the 90’s under Coach Jimmy Johnson who delivered 2 Lombardi trophies to Dallas during their “Glory Years.”  When Jason was being considered for a head coaching spot, he called up Troy and they traveled down to Jimmy Johnson’s house in Miami to stay for a couple days.  During this time, Jason picked Coach Johnson’s brain to the point he had to ask to take a break and enjoy the weather. 

Jason knew at one point he’d be given a shot to coach and when you get that opportunity, you have to hit the ground running.  This is a “win now” league, so you don’t get many chances to be great.  When you see one, you seize it immediately and don’t look back. Jason’s consulted with Coach Johnson since taking over the Cowboys and took every bit of his advice to heart and so far, it paid off.  The team seems to be more disciplined and they had much more to fight for than the Giants did in that Sunday game. 

It’s amazing what just a change at coach can do for a team.  Now if he can just duplicate this rhythm for the next 7 weeks, he might actually keep the job. Good luck Jason, you’ll need it.

 

**On the topic of losses, did any team have a worse win than Miami?  In the game against Tennessee, Miami lost both QB Chad Pennington (essentially for the season and quite possibly his career) and QB Chad Henne for what could be the season, not including former 1st overall pick LT Jake Long was injured as well.  Journeyman backup Tyler Thigpen comes in and essentially hangs the game killing TD on the Titans to put it out of reach for them.

Although they won, who’s going to be under center?  Thigpen has some experience, but he doesn’t exactly have a track record of being a game changing QB.  He had a short-but-good run in Kansas City a couple years back, but even they let him go.

This actually could work to Miami’s benefit.  This season, they’ve basically developed into a pass-first team and that’s been hurting more than helping.  They went out and got free agent Brandon Marshall so they wanted to take full advantage.  The problem?  This team is built to run the ball.  They innovated bringing the Wildcat formation into the NFL.  No one had an answer for it 2 years ago and it took them from a 1-15 team to an 11-5 team.  Although now teams can recognize it, the Dolphins have so many variations that they can run from that Singlewing formation.  Bring it back Sparano.  In a very tough AFC East, this might be the only thing that keeps you alive when it comes to the playoff race.

 

**I wouldn’t be writing a football related article this week without mentioning what everyone’s been talking about since Monday night:  Michael Vick. 

His performance on Monday night was one of the books, there’s no question about that.  I’m probably going to sound like the voice of doom and gloom, but I want to stop this media snowball before it gets wayyyy out of control.

How Vick is playing right now is, no question, like a top 4 QB in the league.  He’s got 11 TD’s, no interceptions, his accuracy looks better than it ever did in Atlanta, and he’s got the Eagles right in the thick of things at 6-3 in a mild NFC East division. 

I like to refer to Michael Vick as a 1 man show.  He can run the ball.  He can throw the ball.  He can really do whatever you want under center and he’s electric.  I don’t want to take anything away from him since I believe he’s the hardest player to stop in the NFL. 

What comes along with that 1 man show that a lot of people are forgetting is that football is a team game and there’s a lot more needed than just him to make things happen.  He’s making a lot of people forget some pretty crucial things. 

For starters, everyone completely forgot that the Eagles are working virtually with a patchwork made line with 2 or 3 backups in the lineup.  No one even worries about it because Vick’s mobility is so good that guys can basically whiff on blocks and he’s going to get out of it. 

One of the biggest things though that everyone’s completely overlooking is the defense of the Eagles.  It was just 6 weeks ago that they were talking about Coach McDermott, the Eagles defensive coordinator, might not make it through the season.  Now that talk’s completely quieted down.  The Eagles defense isn’t really defined for what it is. 

They have some pretty glaring holes at linebacker and along the defensive line.  The big advantage that this defense has is that their offense can rack up points quickly so they are always playing the pass and aren’t really ever forced to play the run.  This is not a big group of guys. 

So what’s the recipe to beating the Eagles you say?  Simple.  Vick can only play offense.  Keep them off the field.  This defense can be run on, and can be run on often.  When you get into the playoffs, you need to be able to do 2 things and do them well:  Play solid defense, and run the ball.  They have a great RB in “Shady” McCoy, but I believe their defense will be their downfall when push comes to shove in crunch-time.  December, January area will show the truth of what they are.

I don’t want you thinking I’m taking anything away from Mike Vick, I think he’s electric, he’s playing at an amazing level.  However, he’s really pulling attention away from some glaring needs that this team has and film study will show it.  Vick won’t hang 59 points a game (unless they keep playing the Redskins week in and week out).   Keep him on the sidelines and wear this defense down and you can walk away from Philly with a big W.  (Are you listening NY?!)

**Well I think last week was my worst week at calling these games so far.  With New England winning, Baltimore losing, and Denver absolutely waxing Kansas City, I was an atrocious 1-3 last week.  Let’s see if we can’t correct that in this week’s Screamers and Sleepers…

SCREAMERS!!!!

Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers

For an average NFL fan, this is going to be a boring game. For a die-hard, gruff, hard hit loving fan, this will be a great game.  Oakland is playing great D right now.  Pittsburgh is steaming after getting stomped at home by New England last Sunday night.  Last year, Oakland came into Pittsburgh and walked away with an upset W.  This year, I don’t think they do it again.  Oakland can run the ball great, but Pittsburgh can stop the run better.

Pittsburgh wins a tough fight and Ben gets hit about 4-5 times 20-15.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

The every 4 year Manning vs Brady Bowl.  It’s beautiful to see 2 future Hall of Famers square off against each other like this.  Early on, Manning’s downfall was Belichick and the Pats.  Since then, Manning has come to even things out with Brady but I don’t think it changes this year.  Brady’s working on a record 25 straight wins at home and I think he gets this one as well.  Peyton for as great as he is, he’s just missing too many people.

New England wins a close fight 28-24.

 

Sleepers…

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

Two of the worst teams in the league facing off.  Cincinnati can’t get out of its own way while Buffalo should be riding the high of their first win of the season.  Still, Buffalo plays up to its great opponents but loses in the last quarter.  Cincy I still think has enough talent to win this, although the only person really playing is Terrell Owens.

Cincy wins and T.O. gets another couple TD’s to add to his Comeback Player of the Year case.  21-17

Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints

The fact that Seattle is leading their division should be enough evidence for the NFL to give its playoff birth to another worthy team.  That’s how bad the NFC West is this season.  New Orleans is just hitting its stride and starting to play with that takeaway mentality that carried them to a Super Bowl win last year.  I don’t think this will be close.

New Orleans rolls Seattle in “Who Dat” fashion 37-10.

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