Weekly Scout’s Take: September 8th Edition

The Jets’ impasse with Revis finally comes to an end, and not a moment too soon. 

Is Randy Moss up to his old tricks again?  The receiver is having issues in New England and that doesn’t speak too well for the Pats. 

The bandwagon is off and running hard for some teams. Why you might want to hold off before buying the hype.

Also, we start off our first “Sleepers and Screamers” edition for Week 1 of the NFL Season.  So let’s get right into it.

**Rex Ryan and company up in New York finally put this lingering issue of the Jets defense to rest.  They were able to come to an agreement with Pro Bowl DB Darrelle Revis in the form of a 4 year, $46 million dollar deal with $32 million in guaranteed money.  This not only works for the Jets, but for Revis in big ways.  The most obvious reason being that the Jets get their top defensive back on the field in time for the week one slugfest against the Ravens.  I said that if it went as far as week 3 and the Jets were struggling, they would give Revis whatever deal he wanted to get him back.  They must have seen that top ranked pass defense wasn’t as potent without “Revis Island” back there floating around. 

It makes sense though.  You can’t expect that secondary to function at such a high level without the man who shut down Randy Moss twice, Terrell Owens twice, Andre Johnson, Chad Ochocinco, and only allowed 1 touchdown all season.  He makes all the other players around him better because they don’t have to leave additional coverage back there to help him out.  He blankets receivers, gets physical with them at the line of scrimmage, and throws them off their own game.  With Revis playing like that, the Jets can send blitzes from anywhere.  They can bring safeties down to come off the edge.  They can play in a nickel package and send the 3^rd corner hard at the QB.  Revis gives them more options. 

To add to all this, the Jets went in the offseason and acquired DB Antonio Cromartie from the Chargers.  Now a lot of people look at this and wonder why they went after him, considering his questionable tackling and motivation.  If the Jets are going to make a run to the Super Bowl in the AFC, there’s a good chance that they will have to come across Peyton Manning and the Colts.  If recent history has shown anything, it’s that Cromartie has been the kryptonite for Manning.  I’m not sure why, but every time they’ve run into the Chargers in the playoffs, it’s ended with Indy going home and them watching the Chargers get beat the following week.  The recent times they didn’t run into San Diego in the playoffs?  They went to the Super Bowl. 

Rex is really arming this team up to the teeth with the belief that they are going the distance.  For the players, everyone that has spoken said they absolutely love the way Rex is approaching the season.  Rex is drinking the kool-aid and has the teams sipping it too.  With them playing to their full potential, this is a suffocating defense.  They are great against the run, amazing against the pass, and can blitz from everywhere.  Hell, if Rex had a chance, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him try and rush the QB. 

If the Jets falter, it’ll be on Mark Sanchez.  The sophomore QB has a lot on his shoulders this coming season.  Even though they’ve built a great run game, excellent offensive line, Mark is going to need to make plays.  When his bell is rung, the question of the year for them will be “Can he answer it?”

**Randy Moss has spoken with the media recently about his unhappiness with no contract extension by the Patriots.  He’s stated that “he feels unwanted” by the organization and he feels he’s deserving of it based off his production over the past couple years.  Does this story sound familiar to anyone?

Now, there’s no doubt that Randy Moss has been one of the most productive receivers in the past few years, and his total numbers will be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame one day.  This just sounds like the same song and dance that’s been played at 2 prior franchises though.  A couple years pass by, he gets upset with the fact that he wants more money, and then will start slowly taking off plays and “playing when Randy wants to play.” 

The fact that he was traded from Oakland should tell you something.  Oakland is long known for housing some of the most troublesome personalities in the NFL.  I thought it was a brave move on the Patriots for getting him but the experiment seemed to work for a couple years.  With as closed off as the Patriots’ organization is, I’m wondering what reaction will come out of Bob Kraft and Bill Bellichick in response to this.  They are not the type of team to let problems linger, and everyone who’s been watching football for the past decade has seen how this story plays out with Moss’s prior stops in his career. 

Now this isn’t saying that Moss isn’t deserving of a contract.  Right now, they don’t have any other true #1 option at wide receiver that can provide them with the same production that Moss does.  If he can actually play through a whole season at the level he knows he’s capable of, I believe he’d be rewarded by the Patriots organization with a 2 or 3 year contract at most.  His age is going to be a considerable factor in what type of extension he will get since he really only has a few good years left before he calls it a career.  He’s been fortunate enough to avoid any real recent injury bugs, but good things don’t last forever.  Hopefully, Randy will do the smart thing and keep his mouth shut and prove his worth on the field and not in a media debate, but history suggests different.

**The media bandwagon has been in full effect with the season kicking off on Thursday.  Every year, the media likes to crown certain teams “locks” for the Super Bowl and who’s the best bet on taking the title. And like always, it never plays out the way everyone expects.  This year is no different.  The hype machine has been in full effects for a few teams, and I’m going to play devil’s advocate as to why you shouldn’t buy what every major media outlet is selling, yet. 

I’ll start off first by taking a look at the Green Bay Packers.  I think this team is loaded with talent, no questions but would I call them a lock for the Super Bowl?  They need to make it out of their own division first.  Let’s look at a couple things before we go saying the trophy’s coming home to TitleTown.

Green Bay was one of the most potent offenses last year.  Aaron Rodgers was an absolute stud, earning a Pro Bowl trip and throwing for a second consecutive 4,000 yard season.  A lot of Green Bay Fans love to remind everyone that no QB has thrown for 4,000 yards ever in his first 2 seasons like Rodgers did.  That’s true and a very valid point. 

However, I don’t any QB took as many sacks as Aaron Rodgers did last year with 51 and was running for his life as much as Rodgers, either.  What is going to separate that from happening again this season?  They play in one of the toughest divisions in football with the Vikings, Bears, and Lions.  The Vikings already have one of the best, if not the best, defensive line in football.  6 times a year, you’ll be facing guys like Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, Ray Edwards, Kyle Van Den Bosch, and that’s just looking at the front line.  We’re not even going to get into the discussion of linebackers for the sake of space. 

The Green Bay offensive line has had its share of injuries to both tackles, Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher.  Now when they’re healthy, they seem like a pretty solid unit.  The problem is that both of them are coming towards the end of their careers.  They did draft Brian Bulaga this year to help fill depth at RT, but who else?  When the backups were in this season, Rodgers was getting chased all over the backfield.  People will disagree with me, but protection is an issue that I believe a lot of cheeseheads want to overlook.

One other issue which will have them working out of a hole is the lack of depth in the secondary for the Packers.  They’ll be starting the season out without S Atari Bigby and Al Harris.  While they still have 2009’s Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson, he can’t cover everyone.  They’ll get both of these guys after 6 weeks since they were listed on the Physically Unable to Perform List, but in a tight division like the NFC North, any advantage helps. 

The next team that the Hype Train has been flying flags high for is the Baltimore Ravens.  This actually is the second year in a row that the media has declared them front runners for the AFC.  With offseason acquisitions like Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, a punishing defensive front line and LB core with Perennial pro bowlers Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs, its hard not to declare them Super Bowl victors in September.  So why wouldn’t they be?  I’m glad you asked.

With all the receiving talent they have, not one of those guys named above or anyone on their team has the true #1 speed and size to give them a serious deep threat.  Their #1 receiver is Derek Mason, and he’s aging very quickly.  John Harbaugh had to talk this guy out of retiring in the offseason or it would have left them with even more of a glaring need at the receiver position. 

That’s not to knock the existing talent they have there now, but they have all the best #2 WR’s in the game.  Dante’ Stallworth should be returning after week 6 from being placed on the PUP list, but he’s another guy who will be in the slot rotation.  No one on that team truly needs to be double covered, and that can be a real problem for teams that know how to blitz from every angle (i.e. – the steelers, maybe?) 

Another thing is they didn’t even make it out of their own division last year.  They slipped into the playoffs as a wild-card.  The reigning AFC North champions, the Cincinnati Bengals, retained virtually their entire roster, and added WR Terrell Owens and drafted University of Texas star Jordan Shipley to help give their anemic passing game some extra life.  The Bengals swept the entire AFC North, including going into Pittsburgh and Baltimore and coming out with wins against the home crowd.  If these two teams get into a shootout, I’d be concerned as a Ravens fan.

To add injury to insult, their secondary is banged up.  Star S Ed Reed is on the PUP list and gone for 6 weeks.  He’s the ball hawk and listed as one of the top 100 best players ever in football.  This is a huge blow for that secondary, since he would be responsible for coverage recognition and changing assignments on the fly if he noticed the offense lining up a certain way.  DB Lardarius Webb is still questionable for the season opener, and has been nursing injuries all offseason and preseason.  DB Domonique Foxworth was lost for the season prior to getting it started.  Now they did acquire Josh Wilson from the Seahawks who’s said to be a nice addition, but that fills one of a few holes. 

Injuries always change the playing field for teams that want to make the run to the big game, and it typically ends a few teams’ chances early.

The flags are flying with a few other teams like the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Jets.  Each team has its own set of issues.  In a prior article, I covered Dallas’s real injury concerns along their offensive line, and lack of depth in the secondary to compensate if someone goes down early.  The Jets have a rookie QB.  It’s a lot to ask him to lead a team the whole distance but the good part is that they’ve surrounded him with a great run game and defense to help with any sophomore slump that might occur. 

Every year, there’s always one team that makes it to the Super Bowl that’s not on anyone’s radar.  Last year, it was the Saints.  The year prior, the Cardinals shocked the world.  In 2007, it was the Giants running the table and preventing history from being made.  In 2005, it was the Steelers winning it from the Six Seed. The moral of the story?  Don’t drink the Kool Aid until you actually see the product put on the field.

In this week’s Screamers and Sleepers, a rematch from last year’s playoffs opens the season up to start the action off right.  Lets look at the week 1 action:

SCREAMER:  Vikings vs Saints

–          Drew Brees vs Brett Favre, the NFC Championship revenge game.  Favre is without his biggest passing target in Sidney Rice.  Brees and Co. will be trying to start the season off with a bang in hopes of pulling off the miracle repeat season.  This will definitely be one that will draw huge ratings and keep you watching until the final whistle.  Watch to see if that pass defense for the Saints looks the same without its defensive leader, Darren Sharper. 

My guess:  Drew Brees takes advantage of a lacking secondary in Minnesota and pulls off the opening day win infront of a rampant New Orleans crowd that will be absolutely electric.  New Orleans wins 34-27.

SCREAMER:  Indianapolis at Houston

–          Peyton Manning vs Matt Schaub.  Reggie Wayne vs Andre Johnson.  Steve Slaton vs Joseph Addai.  This has shootout written all over it.  This AFC South matchup is always tight and never boring with these 2 high powered offenses on the field.  Not too much defense in this game, just the ball flying everywhere.

My guess:  Peyton has won an astonishing 16 matchups against the Houston Texans and running.  Coming off his last game where he lost to the Saints in the Super Bowl, Peyton’s going to have a new motivation to get to Dallas this year to avenge his February loss.  Victim #1, Houston.  Indy wins this one.  37-27.

SLEEPER:  Cleveland at Tampa Bay

–          The meeting of 2 of the worst teams in football.  QB Josh Freeman has an injured thumb and can’t exactly heave it down the field.  Cleveland has Jake Delhomme under center, which means he’ll be completing a couple passes to the Tampa Bay secondary defense.  Cleveland will enjoy this trip for the weather and the scenery, but that’s pretty much about it.  Tampa wins this one 21-10.

SLEEPER:  Arizona at St Louis

–          St. Louis will be starting new rookie millionaire Sam Bradford under center with no credible offensive protection and even less credible receivers.  Arizona’s offense is going to be a huge question mark with no Kurt Warner and no Anquan Boldin.  While Arizona really has very little chance at repeating as NFC West champs, they will handle this divisional matchup pretty easily.  Arizona wins 24-7.