What is the worst case scenario?

Today, MLB Trade Rumors had a poll, wondering whether or not the Twins would actually trade Brian Dozier. The poll results were split right down the middle. I have long been of the opinion that the Twins have every reason to trade Dozier, and it would be problematic if they were unable to find a suitable package this offseason. I think the imperative is so convincing for Minnesota to trade the All Star second baseman that it seems almost destined to happen. The longer that a move goes unmade, the more unlikely it seems.

I’ve been imagining a world where Dozier ultimately does get traded, but there is so much out there, namely time and the Twins own history (albeit under different management) that lends itself to pessimism. It doesn’t take too many steps beyond Dozier not getting traded to imagine their dark period prolonged interminably. Let’s operate under the assumption that the Twins’ near term future relies exclusively on maximizing their potential during Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton’s rookie contracts. That gives them through the 2021 season. Let’s go through this chronologically, inasmuch as the Twins can parlay Brian Dozier’s value into success for the Twins.

The Twins hope that Brian Dozier can continue his hot streak and the market for his services increases ahead of the deadline. Maybe it does. But maybe Dozier starts 2017 like he did in 2016, and his value plummets. Or maybe, the Twins decide a compensatory pick after the 2018 season is worth more than whatever other teams have to offer, either at the 2017 or 2018 deadlines, or during the 2017-18 offseason. That seems like a very strong possibility.

So the Twins turn Brian Dozier into a first round draft pick. If that first round draft pick follows the average timeline of a draft pick, who would be drafted in the middle of the 2019 season, he would take about 3-4 years to arrive in the majors. Unless they draft an absolute superstar, that player wouldn’t arrive until 2022 or 2023. Put a different way, if the Twins don’t move Dozier right now, they might be banking on someone who is currently about 15 years old to help the Twins make the most out of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano.

Obviously, there are intervening factors, trades, other draft picks, players that develop differently than expected and free agency that will alternately change the trajectory of the team, but the fact remains that in order for the Twins to succeed with Buxton and Sano still on the team under a cheap deal, they need major league ready pitching now. They need several pitchers on the roster, ready to anchor the rotation by 2019, and the farm system doesn’t have that many names. The best way to get those guys fast is to move Dozier, and perhaps to move Ervin Santana.

If the Twins are unable to trade Dozier, they should be inclined to look further into the future. Their timeline for success would need to be extended. If Dozier is traded, they should look at extending Buxton and/or Sano to give them more time to succeed. Either that, or maybe next offseason, it could be Buxton or Sano on the trade block as the Twins find some way to stock their system with arms.