Who Will the Cowboys Select with the 40th Pick?

This post is getting bumped from out message boards to the blog since its some great Cowboys draft analysis. My co-admin Adam, did the leg work and he gets all the credit on this one. So, who will the Cowboys select in the 2nd round with the #40 pick overall?  Here’s Adam’s take:

OK this is put together from many Mocks I have looked at over the net and bookmarked for weeks now. Then I have taken all those names that the experts I respect the most seem to suggest possibilities of us drafting them or them at least being around. Sources or mocks used are listed: The Bleacher mocks(The Complete Staff worked together to create this using the help of the following sites listed)–NFL Network’s Mike Maylock–Yahoo Sports Mocks–Draft Countdown 2011 Mocks–Walter Football–NFL Draft Dog–Fox Sports & ESPN Mocks out there.)

With us selecting so early in the draft and matching the number 9 slot with our true needs or most needed Positions, the number of potential first-round selections is limited. I think we pretty much can all agree to that.

I personally think if Jerry and Garrett and the rest involved “Stay Put” as they say…We’re going to select a player like USC offensive tackle Tyron Smith, Nebraska cornerback Prince Amukamara or Wisconsin defensive end J.J. Watt.

We also have predicted some in here already about possibly trading back which is a real possibility…especially with us knowing how Jerry likes to stock pile those picks and not reach for any player. So then if they do that they just might trade down and grab a guy like Wisconsin offensive tackle Gabe Carimi.

Now in here we have only scratched the surface on who we might be going after in the second round. The Second round is more uncertain with so many 2nd round capable players available to us for needs we have. I really would not be surprised to see us try to go OT in the first round cuz a stud first year starter still being around for us in the second round IMO is going to be very slim at best.

That also depends on how you view some of the OT players who will probably still be around for us in the second. Tackles like Miami’s Orlando Franklin or Alabama’s James Carpenter. Question: If you think those players are good enough to spend a early second round pick on them or not? If you think they are then if available we could go after Amukamara at No. 9 1st round spot. Just a lot of what if’s in a draft. What makes it hard predicting the second round pick is… our second-round pick will be heavily influenced by our pick in the first.

So, lets try to; if nothing else, to see who might or probably will still be around at our number 40 pick. I am going to list them below.

**[After each players name there will be a percentage. Which will mean a guessed likelihood that player will still be there when we pick at number 40. Also lets just go with the thought that there will be no free-agent signing before the draft kicks off.]**

First 16 listed Players

* 1. Rahim Moore, FS, UCLA (65 percent)

Moore has pretty good range as the draft’s consensus top-rated safety. The Cowboys have shown interest in him, but that interest could fade if they sign a free agent like Michael Huff.

-vs-

* 16. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois (80 percent)

I love LeShoure, but he’s certainly the underdog in this competition. He would be a worst-case scenario for Dallas.

[Winner: Rahim Moore]

* 8. Rodney Hudson, G, Florida State (95 percent)

I don’t like the value of any guard other than Mike Pouncey, but he won’t be available for Dallas.

-vs-

* 9. Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State (75 percent)

Paea is a super second round talented player who I believe can play the nose, but I don’t think Rob Ryan will target him because he would be a one-gap player. The Boys already have that in Jay Ratliff.

[Winner: Rodney Hudson]

* 5. Aaron Williams, CB/S, Texas (40 percent)

Williams may or may not be available for Dallas, but he is a real possibility if he’s on the board due to his versatility. I think he’s better-suited at safety though.

-vs-

* 12. Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor (10 percent)

Taylor is my top-rated player on this list, but he won’t be around.

[Winner: Aaron Williams]

* 4. Danny Watkins, G, Baylor (85 percent)

I don’t like Watkins at all, but the Cowboys have been following him very closely a lot of draft reports are saying. He’s a favorite at this point.

-vs-

* 13. Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado (15 percent)

The value would be tempting if Smith is still on the board in the second round, but I can’t see the Cowboys bringing in a player with such glaring character concerns.

[Winner: Danny Watkins]

* 6. Orlando Franklin, OT/OG, Miami (95 percent)

Mayock thinks Franklin is a possibility. That’s good enough for me to rank him as the No. 6 seed.

-vs-

* 11. Ben Ijalana, OT, Villanova (20 percent)

Ijalana is clearly the superior player, but I really don’t think he will be available in the second round.

[Winner: Orlando Franklin]

* 3. Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State (50 percent)

Heyward’s availability, in my opinion, will be 50/50. I think he drops with players like Muhammad Wilkerson and Marvin Austin moving up boards.

-vs-

* 14. Martez Wilson, ILB/OLB, Illinois (75 percent)

Wilson is a long shot, but I like him a lot and like his Videos LMAO.

[Winner: Cameron Heyward]

* 7. Marcus Cannon, G, TCU (90 percent)

Cannon makes more sense to me than Watkins, but I still don’t think the value is right.

-vs-

* 10. Christian Ballard, DE, Iowa (85 percent)

I haven’t talked about Ballard too much, but he’s a dark horse. Still, you have to think the Cowboys have Heyward rated higher.

[Winner: Marcus Cannon]

* 2. Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (45 percent)

I’m really hoping Harris falls to the Cowboys’ second-round pick. It’s certainly possible, and despite other holes, I don’t think you’ll find much better value.

-vs-

* 15. James Carpenter, OT, Alabama (95 percent)

Not a legitimate option…I hope.

[Winner: Brandon Harris]

The Eight 1st Bracket Winners

* 1. Rahim Moore -vs- 8. Rodney Hudson

[Winner: Rahim Moore]

* 5. Aaron Williams -vs- 4. Danny Watkins

[Winner: Danny Watkins]

* 6. Orlando Franklin -vs- 3. Cameron Heyward

[Winner: Cameron Heyward]

* 7. Marcus Cannon -vs- 2. Brandon Harris

[Winner: Brandon Harris]

The four Remaining 2nd Bracket Winners

* 1. Rahim Moore -vs- 4. Danny Watkins

[Winner: Rahim Moore]

* 3. Cameron Heyward -vs- 2. Brandon Harris

[Winner: Cameron Heyward]

The Last 2 Standing from the Final Round

* 1. Rahim Moore -vs- 3. Cameron Heyward

[Winner: Rahim Moore]

In Closing

Even though I believe the Cowboys will make a serious push for free-agent safety Michael Huff, I haven’t simply assumed his presence in Dallas. Actually, this little tournament has kind of shown us that the opportunity for a top free safety to be available in the second round is pretty good. If we assume the chances that Moore and Williams are available as those listed above (65 and 40 percent, respectively), then the combined chance that one of them is available at No. 40 is 79 percent, making it is likely, but not certain, that either Williams or Moore will be available for Dallas.

We have also seen that the likelihood of a top offensive tackle being available is slim. Actually, Ijalana is the only top-rated tackle listed in this bracket. There is zero chance of a player like Gabe Carimi or Derek Sherrod falling. I don’t see the value in a prospect like Franklin or Carpenter.

The Cowboys will have the opportunity to grab a guard in the second round, if they so choose to. The chance of one of the guards listed above (including Franklin) being available is 99.96 percent. With such certainty, I think it would be smart for the Cowboys to wait until the third round, at the earliest, to address the position.

If we assume that Hudson, Watkins, Franklin and Cannon have just a 25, 15, 25 and 20 percent chance of being available in the third round, the overall probability of just one still being around is still 61.8 percent. I say bypass reaching for a guard in the second and “gamble” on one being available in the third.

There will be defensive linemen available for the Cowboys in the second round. This is one reason I believe they should pass on J.J. Watt and Cameron Jordan in the first round in an effort to target an offensive tackle. The Cowboys may not be interested in Paea, Taylor, Heyward and Ballard, but the chance that at least one is available in the second round is 98.3 percent. Even if we throw out Ballard, that probability is still 88.8 percent.

Ultimately, though, it might be in Dallas’ best interest to look into trading up from the second round. The majority of the players listed above are nice, but not incredible. I have Taylor, Ijalana and Harris rated in my top 15 (No. 6, No. 11 and No. 15, respectively). The probability that just one of them is available, however, is just 60.4 percent. If we throw out Harris, who probably wouldn’t start immediately anyway, that number plummets to 28 percent.

I like the idea of the ‘Boys moving up a few spots from pick No. 40 to secure a prospect who can have an immediate impact. The likelihood of that scenario playing out increases dramatically if the Cowboys trade out of the No. 9 spot. Would you rather have Gabe Carimi and Phil Taylor, or Tyron Smith and Cameron Heyward? That’s not a rhetorical question.