Who’s Due? Players Looking to Turn It Around

On July 19th, I asked my friend who owned Dan Uggla in our fantasy league to send me a trade for him.  He responded a few minutes later saying Kevin Youkilis for Dan Uggla, straight up.  At the time Youk was hitting .280 with about 15 homers while playing a valuable 3B in fantasy.  Meanwhile Uggla was hitting about .180 with 12 homers and playing the less valuable 2B.  I thought about it for a minute then asked him to include a relief pitcher and talks fell through.  Some 3 weeks later and Dan Uggla is in the midst of a 30 game hitting streak — the longest in baseball this year — and has hit another 12 home runs.  So why did my friend want so much for a .180 hitter and why was I willing to consider trading a .280 hitter for a .180 hitter?  Dan Uggla was quite simply DUE.  Baseball players go through hot and cold streaks.  It’s part of what makes the game so great.  With that in mind, lets look at some guys around the league ready to break out Dan Uggle style.

Adam Dunn:  Look, this is the guy I first thought of when I first made this list.  You had to know the Big Donkey would be on here.  He’s struggled all year long and sounds totally dejected in interviews calling it a “lost year” and saying he’s going to change his offseason workout routine. Call me dumb, ignorant, or dull but I think Dunn could turn it around over the last two months.  He’s put in all the work, should be in the midst of a penant race (Sox are only 4 GB and have won 5 straight).  I know he’s hitting .165 and has a .295 OBP (Though he has shown some improvement over the past 10 games hitting .176) but this is a guy who has averaged over 40 home runs the past 7 years with a low of 38.  He currently has just 11.  Dudes just don’t forget how to hit like this.  Adam Dunn is DUE.

Adrian Beltre:  Beltre has not been a disappointment in Texas and that lineup looks scary with him, Kinsler, Hamilton, and 25 homer Nelson Cruz.  He’s hit 20 homers but the statistics say that his average could climb and that his production would therefore follow suit.  Beltre’s BABIP is nearly 20 points lower than his traditional BA despite his under 10% K%.

Chris Johnson:  While the more famous Chris Johnson (CJ2K) holds out for more money in Nashville, the Astros third baseman holds out for better luck.  He sports a top 20 line drive percentage (hitting a line drive over 22% of the time) and holds a .310 BABIP.  The 6’3, 220 pound Johnson is still just hitting .245 with 6 home runs.  I don’t know how exactly that is possible.  Johnson is DUE.

Maicer Izturis:  Izturis is hitting .271 and has a .335 OBP– Fairly in line with his career averages (.275, .339) — but he is due because of the peripherals.  Looking at Izturis’s Line Drive % (he hits a line drive in 25% of his at bats), BABIP (.304) and relatively low number of infield hits (just 8 ) makes it seem like his average and OBP could significantly rise.  Maicer is not going to carry the team over the last two months but, I like his chances to see his numbers climb.

Jayson Werth:  Werth may not have deserved the absurd amount that Washington paid for him but, he certainly was never a bad player (especially when healthy).  This is a guy with a career .828 OPS and a .467 slugging.  He’s currently hitting .224 and slugging just .331.  It is worth noting that Werth has a hit in each of his six games since receiving a mental health day last week. It might be a small sample size, but he has gone 9-for-23 with three extra-base hits and two steals in that stretch.  I’m not saying he’s about to go all Dan Uggla on us, but this may be our best chance for another extended streak of awesome.

Stat of the Day: Casey Kotchman is hitting .338. He’s due to suck over the last two months.  Stat number two, Frank Francisco is listed at 250 pounds.

Story of the Day: A must read. The Blue Jays accused of stealing signs, again.  It’s nothing new but could help explain their surge in home run production at home over the past year.  Also, check out this comment posted by someone:

Just cancelled my ESPN Insider account because of this article. I would expect this kind of reporting out of a two-bit hack operation, but not a major news outlet like ESPN. Not only does this article fail in every aspect, to provide the rigor necessary in researching claims such as this, but its utter lack of journalistic integrity is astounding. Both the authors of this article, and the ESPN editors who allowed this to appear both on the website and in the magazine, should be ashamed of the quality of this article. Before slandering an entire organization, taking some time to ensure that there is a factual basis to the argument is of the utmost importance, and you failed in this respect.
Several other major outlets have already presented compelling retorts to this analysis, so I won’t bother to rehash them here. Put simply, the authors are guilty of forming a conclusion and then cherry-picking the evidence that proves it, and your editors are no better for allowing such drivel to make it to print.

-Sean Morash