The latest round of AL voting results was released on Tuesday and, while not blowing anyone away, the Indians are faring quite nicely. Last year’s starting third baseman for the AL team, Jose Ramirez, again leads in voting, nearly 400,000 above the Yankees Michael Andular. Francisco Lindor (third among short stops), Michael Brantley (fourth among outfielders), Yan Gomes (fifth among catchers), and somehow Jason Kipnis and Edwin Encarnacion are all among the top five vote getters at their positions. In the following, we’ll break down who should be and who shouldn’t be heading to Washington DC for the 2018 mid-summer classic.
Third Base – Jose Ramirez
Starting with both the easiest and the most likely, the fans seem to be getting this one right already. Ramirez is by far the most productive third baseman in the AL, outpacing everyone in OBP, SLG, wRC+, WAR, steals, home runs, RBI while holding the best K%. Old school, new school, red school, blue school, Ramirez is the best in the country no matter how you look at it. Instead of fighting for him, I’ll use this last sentence to fight for Matt Chapman, who deserves to be the reserve at the position. He is second at the position in overall WAR, the top defender, fifth best offensive performer and isn’t in the top five in voting.
Starting Pitcher – Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber & Mike Clevinger
Who would have thought that three months into the season the Indians top pitcher in WAR would be Trevor Bauer? He sits second in the AL in starter WAR and his 2.28 FIP makes it seem like we haven’t even seen his best yet. Things can change more quickly with pitchers than position players, but there is no argument against Bauer in the All-Star game right now and only a slight argument against him starting.
Of the other contenders, Luis Severino as well as Astros starters Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander are definitely deserving as is the Indians Kluber. After the first extremely strong group, there is another group of very worthy pitchers that includes Chris Sale, James Paxton, Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell and Tyler Skaggs.
There are a couple of factors that could play in here beyond talent and statistical dominance. First, the Astros have four of the top 20 pitchers in the AL while the Indians have three in the top 10 (four in the top 12 if you include the injured Carlos Carrasco). Due to the minimum of one player per team, it would be tough to include all these deserving pitchers, so some will definitely be left off. In addition, no pitcher is allowed to throw in the All-Star game if they pitch the day before, so one or more of these pitchers could be eliminated from use due to this, although they could still “make the team.”
Both the players’ performance over the next month and the selection process are extremely difficult to predict, but both Bauer and Kluber should be considered to have a great chance of making the team.
Short Stop – Francisco Lindor
As far as Indians players are concerned, the short stop voting makes the least sense. Among AL players, Lindor ranks third offensively behind Manny Machado and Eduardo Escobar while coming in third defensively behind Jose Iglesias and Andrealton Simmons. Outside of Simmons, who was recently injured, Lindor sits nearly a full win better than all his competition at the position. He’s among the leaders in every stat down the line from power to speed to OBP and we’ve already mentioned his defense. He should make this team, although it will likely be as a back-up to Machado, who is also deserving. Considering what the Orioles are going through, they could use the boost.
Catcher – Yan Gomes
Now this one is intriguing. Wilson Ramos leads Gary Sanchez in a close vote with Gomes coming in fifth, but Sanchez is currently hitting .194/.294/.440 and I don’t know that there has ever been such an awful line in an All-Star game. There are a few better options than both of them, at the forefront Max Stassi of Houston, who unfortunately isn’t on the ballot. Of those on the ballot, Gomes looks like an offensive juggernaut with the next best hitters like Luke Maile of Toronto and Wellington Castillo of Chicago not on the ballot either. Ramos and Brian McCann don’t deserve to be in the discussion, let alone the top five, so this should be a three man race between Gomes, Sanchez and Salvador Perez.
This is one where you could make a difference, Cleveland fans. Go out and vote for Gomes. He has quite the distance to make up.
Outfield – Michael Brantley
While a few of the Indians outfielders have outpaced expectations (particularly Tyler Naquin and Lonnie Chisenhall), the only one who has played enough or well enough to be considered for the All-Star game is Brantley. He currently ranks 14th in overall WAR among AL outfielders, but that includes a large chunk of negative value from defense. Offensively, he ranks 10th. Rather than focus on whether or not Brantley deserves to be in, since most years you could say a .321/.363/.520 line merits selection, it’s more beneficial to look at who does deserve entry.
First, Mike Trout‘s career doesn’t even make sense and he’s been better than ever this year. If he isn’t starting in center, they should cancel the game. Mookie Betts, who is insanely beating Trout in the popular vote, also deserves automatic selection. My personal favorite for number three is the Twins Eddie Rosario, who has similar overall numbers to Aaron Judge without all the K’s. This is not to say that Judge doesn’t deserve to be in, and he likely will make the team as he currently sits as the third most vote getter, Rosario just deserves greater appreciation than 12th. To add a fifth, Mitch Haniger seems a good choice with two of the top DH options also generally considered outfielders in J.D. Martinez and Giancarlo Stanton. There are plenty of worthy candidates this year, so many that it is likely Brantley could be left out.
To put it simply, the Yankees have four outfielders on their own who outpace Brantley in WAR (add Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner to Judge and Stanton). Brantley could make it, but he shouldn’t. We won’t dignify the current top five statuses of Kipnis and Encarnacion with further evaluation beyond stating that they should not be All-Stars.
Near Guarantee: Ramirez, Kluber
Probable: Bauer, Lindor
Possible: Gomes, Brantley
Unlikely: Clevinger
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