Breaking Down the Chicago Cubs

With a 5-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday night, the Chicago Cubs clinched their first World Series appearance in 71 years. The Cubs will take on the Indians at 8:08 pm Tuesday for Game 1 of a series that will end a combined 176 year championship drought between the two franchises, with Cleveland’s last title coming in 1948, while Chicago’s came in 1908.

Though the Cubs come into the World Series with the longer championship drought, the Indians will be significant underdogs in the World Series, even with home field advantage belonging to Cleveland. As of Sunday, the Cubs were -185 favorites to win the best-of-seven series over Cleveland at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.

No doubt Chicago is favored to win the World Series due largely to their MLB-best 103-58 record during the regular season. Let’s take a look at what allowed Chicago to be so successful:

Offense

A dominant offense has played a large role in the Cubs  journey to the World Series. During the regular season, the Cubs batters ranked third in baseball and tops in the national league with a 106 wRC+. Specifically, Cubs hitters excelled in terms of patience, drawing walks in an MLB-best 10.4% of plate appearances. Unlike Cleveland, the Cubs aren’t huge threat on the bases, stealing just 56 bases in 84 attempts.

What makes Chicago such a dangerous team is the depth of their lineup. They feature five regulars with a wRC+ of 120 or better (Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, and Wilson Contreas). Bryant and his 149 wRC+ lead the group, making navigating through the heart of Chicago’s lineup a scary thought for any pitcher.

Meanwhile,  The “weak” points in Chicago’s lineup still come with players who have all shown All-Star ability. Right fielder Jason Heyward has struggled heavily this year with just a .230/.306 /.325 slash line, but his track record (career 111 wRC+) and speed still make him a threat. Javier Baez is another of the Cubs “weaker” hitters, but still checked in at just below MLB-average during the regular season (94 wRC+) and has come alive in the postseason, slashing .318/.313/.500 in six playoff games this year.

All things considered, the Indians pitchers will have their work cut out for them facing Chicago this series.

Pitching

As good as the Cubs offense is, a team doesn’t with 103 games in a season without excellent pitching. The Cubs are poised to start Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, and John Lackey in the World Series, and all present a major challenge for opposing hitters.

Lester, a four-time All-Star, is Chicago’s ace, after the Cubs signed him to a six year, $155 million dollar contract before the 2015 season.  He hasn’t disappointed, going 30-17 with a 2.89 ERA in the regular season since signing the lucrative deal. Lester has been even better in the playoffs for Chicago, going 3-2 with a 2.31 ERA. Baseball Prospectus calls Lester “an extreme strike thrower” and relies heavily on a fastball/cutter combination but also uses a curveball and a changeup. A left-hander, one of Lester’s weakness is an strange inability/unwillingness to attempt to pick runners off at first base. With Cleveland’s propensity to steal bases, this will be something to watch in the World Series.

After Lester, there isn’t a much of a drop off. Hendricks actually might have had a better year than Lester in 2016, going 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA,  while striking out 8.05 batters per nine innings and walking just 2.08. Meanwhile, Chicago’s third starting pitcher during the World Series will be Arrieta, who won a Cy Young last season, and John Lackey, their fourth starter, still posted a 3.35 ERA this season.

Getting to the Cubs’ bullpen might not be a great idea for Cleveland, either. Chicago has one of best group of relievers in baseball, starting with their flame-throwing lefty closer Aroldis Chapman, who is unhittable when he locates. However, the Cubs also have Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon, Carl Edwards Jr., and Justin Grimm, who all also strike out more than 11 hitters per nine innings, and all carry FIP’s of 3.5o or lower.

Defense

As we’ve seen, the Cubs have very strong offense and pitching. Even with that, the most impressive aspect about the Cubs could be their defense. In 2016, the Cubs have been historically elite on defense, recording the best park-adjusted defensive efficiency ever, according to Baseball Prospectus.

The Cubs defensive excellence is no coincidence: Jason Heyward has long been considered baseball’s best defensive right fielder (career 18.9 UZR/150), while Addison Russell (career 15.6 UZR/150) and Javy Baez (career 5.0 UZR/150) both grade out as excellent defenders up the middle in the infield. Further, Dexter Fowler has told the media he made an effort to become a better center fielder this past offseason, and after the metrics had pegged him as below average for his career, he graded out as just above average (1.0 UZR/150) this year. To round everything out, all three of the Cubs’ catchers have been above-average pitch framers in 2016, all ranking in the top 25 in baseball, according to StatCorner.

Overview

The truth about the Cubs is that they don’t have any glaring hole on their team – their lineup can provide plenty of runs, while their pitching (starters and bullpen) and defense are better than anyone at preventing the other team from scoring. The Indians will be underdogs, and for good reason. However, one thing is certain: no matter who wins the World Series, it will be a storybook ending for someone.