In speculating about the Indians arbitration eligible players yesterday, the most interesting situation may surround Lonnie Chisenhall. While any drama over Cody Allen comes in if the Indians can extend him and any around Abraham Almonte are about whether or not he’s even tendered a contract, Chisenhall has three real outcomes that could all happen depending on the rest of the roster. That makes him worth another, more in depth look compared to others in a similar situation.
The Case to Hold
The easiest thing to do with any arbitration eligible player is to just offer them a one year deal in November, the negotiate the actual salary, ultimately agreeing on a contract for the next season by itself. This is the default setting for a situation like this and in almost all cases of arbitration eligible players, it is what happens and no one thinks too deeply into it.
The reason this makes sense for Lonnie this year is the unknown. The Indians don’t know if Michael Brantley will be healthy next year (whether or not they use his option) and they don’t know if Carlos Santana is coming back. If one or the other isn’t available, Chisenhall is the number one replacement. He played some left field down towards the end of 2017 and has played enough at first that a transition there is more reasonable for Chisenhall than it would be for other players who have been suggested, like Brantley and Jason Kipnis. If Santana is resigned and Brantley is healthy (he’s expected to return to baseball activities February assuming the Indians use his option), Chisenhall could simply continue on as the starting right fielder against right handed pitchers with Brandon Guyer playing against lefties.
The Case to Extend
More than any Indians team in memory or really any other team in baseball, Terry Francona has brought in an atmosphere where loyalty to certain players is placed higher than nearly anything else. Players who were clearly worse than their replacements have been kept around for this reason (or the veteran leadership excuse) since 2013 and it certainly would appear that the seven year veteran Chisenhall, who was drafted in the first round by Cleveland and never played for another team, fits in that box.
As a player who has averaged 1.5 WAR per season since 2013, Chisenhall is about as reliable as a player can get. Excluding his insane 2015 (his first year in right), he has always been about a league average fielder and an above average bat. Since 2013, he’s hit .267/.321/.427 which is nearly equal to the numbers that Andre Ethier, who made $82.5M over that period compared to Chisenhall’s $10.28M, put up. Of course, Ethier did so with two good years and four bad ones while Chisenhall has been consistently mediocre throughout. For all those people looking to trade for Ethier and his incredibly large contract the last two seasons, the Indians already had a better one for a lot less money.
With the rising cost of WAR, Chisenhall has been a steal so far and he is likely to be again in 2018 as long as he signs for less than $10M per year. If the Indians could lock him up for a few more years at a similar rate, it would provide them with a solid platoon bat at a discount price. While he could eventually see more time on the bench, there would be value in a utility man who could play all three outfield positions, first base and, potentially, third as well. It would mesh well with the Indians current options for utility man who are essentially middle infielders (Giovanny Urshela is a 3B who can play SS and 2B while Erik Gonzalez is a SS who can play 1B, 2B, 3B, LF and RF).
The Case to Trade
When pumping up Chisenhall’s value compared to his cost, it should be obvious that other teams may also be interested in acquiring his abilities. There is certainly a market for a consistent left handed platoon bat and, in the past, the Indians have looked to move upcoming free agents to get the most out of them. He is no where near good enough to consider a qualifying offer after 2018, so the only way the Indians would get anything out of Chisenhall leaving through free agency would be to trade him before that happens.
However, since Mark Shapiro move to Canada, this has not been a top priority. Winning in the present has been pushed up on the priority list, even if it costs something in the future. With that in mind, the Indians would have to have a superior option in right next year to even consider losing Chisenhall.
While I think the first option (to just keep Chisenhall and let him leave in free agency) is how this will actually play out, for the sake of completion, we’ll take a look at a scenario that would allow the Indians to make Chisenhall superfluous and allow them to trade him, saving about $6M and potentially returning a mid-level prospect or two.
Based on the Indians moves in September, the post-season and some comments after, it appears that the plan is to go with Jose Ramirez at second, which leaves Jason Kipnis without a home and third base open. To solve that, there is this:
[protected-iframe id=”86108b7d0e48559abd9c20cd62a5b338-114320562-107853376″ info=”twsrc%5Etfw” class=”twitter-tweet”]This would essentially postulate that Yandy Diaz will be the starter with either Urshela or Gonzalez as defensive replacement/utility man. Ramirez, Diaz and Lindor are all under team control through 2021, so there is a chance this could be a permanent fixture in the infield for a long time. The only problem is that Kipnis is guaranteed through 2019 and under team control through 2020 ($16.5M option). There’s also no question that Kipnis is a full time starter.
While Chisenhall has value as a 1.5 WAR player, when he’s not injured, Kipnis is a 4-6 win player. If he can play successfully in the outfield, he will play every day in the outfield. That being said, it will not be in centerfield. The starting center fielder in 2018 will be Bradley Zimmer, who was having a great rookie campaign until he broke his hand. After him, Greg Allen looks to be a starter quality outfielder who is potentially a superior defender and could move Zimmer to right. This potentially gives the Indians outfield options in 2018 of Brantley, Kipnis, Zimmer, Allen, Guyer and Chisenhall with Abraham Almonte still under team control and out of options.
That is simply too many outfielders and, while first base/DH could absorb one of those, you also have to consider Francisco Mejia who looks to factor into things in 2018. If the Indians carry three catchers, one will likely have to be used in that 1B/DH situation with Edwin Encarnacion. Even if Mejia can play third, which he is currently trying to learn in the Arizona Fall League, that would just mean Diaz would need to play first or DH. It doesn’t free up a roster spot.
The only real way to avoid this incredibly talented log jam is for the Indians to not only buyout Brantley’s option and not bring him back as a free agent, but for them to not resign Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce or any other player to play first base or outfield. After the team lost in the ALDS with Santana and Bruce because they didn’t score enough runs, it’s hard to imagine them gearing up for another post-season run without attempting to make any improvements at all. The easiest way to improve might just be to trade Chisenhall and resign either Santana or Bruce to boost the offense without hurting the team defensively. Chisenhall and his 1.5 WAR is good, but he’s no Santana, Kipnis, Brantley or Zimmer.
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