All fans of college football love a big upset, providing your team is not on the receiving end of the defeat. What makes that upset even better is when you have predicted it and have made the sportsbooks pay for their mistake. Last week, we did exactly that by going 3/3 on our underdog picks. Can we have the same level of success this week? Join us as we look to pick the right underdogs as we put a few favorites on Upset Alert in the week 12 NCAAF games.
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Upset Alert Rules
- Must be a 3-point or bigger favorite on the spread to be on Upset Alert.
- This week’s sportsbook of choice is BetOnline.
Upset Alert #1 – NC State to beat Louisville (Spread: +4) @ +160 with BetOnline
The ranked team in the NC State versus Louisville game is the underdog. Much like last week, this is not an upset in that sense, but the sportsbooks believe that Louisville getting beaten would be an upset.
The weather forecast for this game is cold and windy. Passing will be a bit of a nightmare and it all sets up for big rushing days for both teams. NC State is tied 18th in the country for yards per rush allowed at just 3.5. The Wolfpack has some great run-stuffing linebackers and even with Cardinals quarterback Malik Cunningham scrambling around, they may struggle to move the ball.
Add in the fact, that Cunningham and the Louisville running back room is banged up and we are starting to get a recipe for the upset.
https://twitter.com/rickbozich/status/1592565609107460098
On the other side of the ball, Louisville is 89th in college football in rush yards allowed per game. The Wolfpack will likely opt for a running back by committee approach, but they should be able to move the ball behind this offensive line and pull off the victory for an upset. Lock it in, Wolfpack win, and the Louisville Cardinals are on Upset Alert.
Upset Alert #2 – Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma (Spread +7.5) @ +230 with BetOnline
Oklahoma State Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders is a little bit banged up going into this game and that can be the only explanation for these odds. He made it clear last week that he wants to play in Bedlam and if he is out there, the Cowboys should not be this big of an underdog.
Q: Will you be ready to go next week for Bedlam?
“Count me in, 100%”
Q: in modern college football some players decide to shut it down when they’re injured. Did that thought occur to you?
“I’m too competitive for that shit.” pic.twitter.com/ADzunrBwnM
— Ben Hutchens (@Ben_Hutchens_) November 13, 2022
This Oklahoma defense is giving up 4.6 yards per carry, 108th in NCAA football. The matchup on the right hand side of the offensive line for the Cowboys is good, so Sanders and running back Dominic Richardson could see plenty of holes open up on Saturday. They could run it down the throat of the Sooners all evening.
Individual matchups on the defensive side of the ball favor OK State too. Matchups out wide aren’t there for the Sooners, and the line matchup seems to favor Oklahoma State. There is no reason that we can see for the spread to be this high and Cowboys’ odds to be this large. Get Oklahoma on Upset Alert. Lock it in.
Upset Alert #3 – Syracuse to beat Wake Forest (Spread +10) @ +280 with BetOnline
Both teams are coming into this one in horrible form. Syracuse has lost its last four, whereas Wake Forest is on a run of three straight defeats. Even though both teams are on losing streaks, Wake Forest’s recent run doesn’t suggest they are ten-point favorites over any team with similar talent levels.
Syracuse’s pass defense is ranked ninth in NCAAF for total pass yards allowed per game and that’s how the Demon Deacons like to attack. If the Orange can stop Wake QB Sam Hartman through the air, they could struggle to put up yards on the ground. Wake’s rushing attack is 97th in the country for total rush yards per game and not one we would want to be backing at these odds.
The Orange will have Garrett Shrader at quarterback, and he says he is feeling better after being banged up. Shrader is a threat with his legs as well as his arm, so the fact he says his lower leg injury is much better can only be bad news for Wake.
Encouraging words from Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader on his health & abilities heading into Wake Forest pic.twitter.com/QD0QaHEq17
— Tommy CNY (@TommySladek) November 15, 2022
Additionally, he has tight end Oronde Gadsden as a target to help him out. Gadsden looks to have a positive matchup and should be peppered with targets by his QB. Hopefully, the defense keeps Wake Forest quiet and Shrader and Gadsden hook up often to put them away. Wake Forest is on Upset Alert, so lock our final underdog pick of week 12 in.
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