All fans of college football love a big upset, providing your team is not on the receiving end of the defeat. What makes that upset even better is when you have predicted it and have made the sportsbooks pay for their mistake. Join us as we look to pick the right underdogs as we put a few favorites on Upset Alert in the week 11 NCAAF games.
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Upset Alert Rules
- Must be a 3-point or bigger favorite on the spread to be on Upset Alert.
- This week’s sportsbook of choice is BetOnline.
Upset Alert #1 – North Carolina to beat Wake Forest (Spread: +4) @ +160 with BetOnline
Give us UNC quarterback Drake Maye against ACC team as an underdog and we are taking that bet. Maye is an exceptional talent who will be playing on Sundays in a couple of years and this Wake D isn’t stopping him.
Drake Maye on 20+ yard throws this season:
🔹 98.8 Passing Grade (1st)
🔹 33 Completions (1st)
🔹 1,042 Yards (2nd)
🔹 13 Touchdowns (2nd) pic.twitter.com/RdIrRTuOdF— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 11, 2022
The Tar Heels defense might even struggle to stop a fat kid getting to the fridge, but in Maye they have a QB that will keep them in any game. He can do it with his legs or his arm, it doesn’t matter to him. Maye can do it all. Besides that, the defense has improved a little over the past couple of weeks and if defensive coordinator Gene Chizik can keep that up, then UNC wins the ACC.
Wake has given up 48 to Louisville (mainly because of Sam Hartman’s disastrous third quarter where he turned it over six times) and 30 to NC State over the past two weeks. Those offenses are not nearly on the same level as this UNC offense. Wake is going to need to score 55 to win this game. Damn, they might do it and still lose. Drake Maye rolls in this one. Get Wake Forest on Upset Alert.
Upset Alert #2 – TCU to beat Texas (Spread +7.5) @ +230 with BetOnline
What on God’s green earth are these odds? TCU is undefeated and currently ranked fourth in the country, while the best result Texas have mustered all season is a one-point defeat. It was to Alabama, but still, what is happening here? Did Max Duggan lose both his arms?
I've been staring at Texas at -7 against TCU and LSU only -3.5 Arkansas for the last hour. Can someone please let me in on the joke?
— Kegan Reneau (@KeganReneau) November 11, 2022
As you may be able to tell, we are a little confused by the odds on this game, but the sharps have already moved this line from +7 to +7.5. There must be something in the advanced stats these nerds are seeing that our eyes are missing. But this time, we are believing our own eyes over these nerds’ numbers.
Max Duggan is up there with the best quarterbacks in NCAAF this year. His favorite target Quentin Johnston might be a bit banged up and Duggan himself might be carrying a small knock, but he still has both his arms as far as we can tell.
Over the past three weeks, Texas has barely scraped by Kansas State and Iowa State, and they have lost to Oklahoma State. They are not beating the number four ranked team in the country, that will look to target this horror Texas passing defense. Longhorns are on Upset Alert this week.
Upset Alert #3 – Washington to beat Oregon (Spread: +13) @ +360 with BetOnline
This game will likely be a lot closer than the 13-point spread suggests. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix and his running backs may have a bit of an issue moving the ball on the ground given the strength of this Huskies defense is its run stopping. They allow just 3.5 yards per carry, enough for tied 18th in college football.
Nix is going to have to beat them with his arm, and we do not think he is that great of a passer. He can certainly do a job, but if the running game is taken away, it spells trouble for the Ducks.
On the other side of the ball, Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. can certainly chuck a ball. Oregon struggles against the pass and it sets up well for Penix and his talented receivers. Get the Ducks on Upset Alert.
Why isn’t Michael Penix Jr getting more love and attention. He’s the FBS leader in Passing Yards and has a 23:5 TD:INT ratio.
He should at least be getting more credit than he is. pic.twitter.com/OmRfX74B28
— Ducks & Dawgs (@DucksAndDawgs) November 10, 2022
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