NFL Week 11 Same Game Parlay: +425 SGP Pick

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa

For our NFL Week 11 same game parlay, we’re backing the Miami Dolphins to explode offensively against the Las Vegas Raiders.

NFL Week 11 SGP:

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline. Odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.

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NFL Week 11 Same Game Parlay

SGP (+425): Dolphins Over 29.5 Total Points, Dolphins 1st Half Winner, Tua Tagovailoa Over 21.5 Completions, Tyreek Hill Over 92.5 Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins offensive tackle Terron Armstead
Sep 24, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins offensive tackle Terron Armstead (72) leads the team onto the field before a game against the Denver Broncos at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

After struggling in a 21-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Dolphins will look to get things back on track against the Raiders. The Dolphins are 0-3 against teams with winning records. Miami is 6-0 versus everyone else. The Raiders enter the game against the Dolphins at 5-5.

Despite scoring 14 points against the Chiefs, the Dolphins still lead the league in scoring with 31.7 points per game.

The Dolphins point totals in four home games in Miami: 70, 31, 42, and 31. Even though the Raiders only allow 20.5 points per game, Miami is a different beast at home. The Fins will surpass the 29.5 total.

The Dolphins are also one of the best first half teams in the league, as they’re tied for third in scoring (16.8). The Raiders rank 22nd in first half scoring (9.7). Add Miami 1H to the card.

Tua Tagovailoa played arguably his worst game of the season against the Chiefs, completing 21 of 34 passes for 193 yards and one touchdown. Kansas City forced Tagovailoa to have his single worst completion percentage of the year (61.8).

The Raiders defense is not on the level of the Chiefs. Don’t let the last two weeks fool you. The Raiders played Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson, two of the worst QBs in the NFL.

Tagovailoa is a massive step up in competition for a Raiders’ team that allows 21.60 completions per game. Tagovailoa has completed at least 21 passes in every game this season. The trend continues Sunday as Tua should complete 25+ passes.

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill
Oct 15, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) reacts while taking on the field prior to the game against the Carolina Panthers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Finally, Tyreek Hill’s revenge game against the Chiefs didn’t go to plan. Hill caught eight receptions for 62 yards. It was one of only two games where he didn’t score a touchdown.

Hill’s numbers in Miami compared to the road are staggering. Hill’s receiving yards in four Miami games: 157, 181, 163, and 112. Hill gets to 100+ yards on Sunday.

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