NFL Week 16 Expert Picks Against the Spread: The Mike Tomlin Special

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin

For Week 16, we’re choosing to back the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers. Inside, we examine our NFL Week 16 expert picks against the spread.

NFL Week 16 Expert Picks Against The Spread

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline. The odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.

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NFL Week 16 Expert Picks Against the Spread

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-115)

This could be Mike Tomlin’s last stand.

The train is almost entirely off the track in Pittsburgh. The debacle involves wide receiver George Pickens and his decision to give up on a play and not block for Jaylen Warren in Saturday’s 30-13 loss to the Colts.

Is Tomlin’s message getting stale with the younger players? Should he move on from the Steelers? These are all questions that need to be addressed in the offseason.

As for the game, this is a classic Tomlin spot. Tomlin is 55-31-3 (63.5%) as an underdog (BetMGM). The Steelers are also 19-6-1 ATS at home after allowing 30+ points the previous game (Action Network).

Mason Rudolph will start in place of the injured Kenny Pickett. How much better Rudolph is than Mitch Trubisky is unknown. However, Trubisky was terrible in his two starts, throwing for less than 200 yards each game. The Steelers lost both games.

The Steelers already beat Jake Browning and the Bengals 16-10 one month ago. However, the Bengals have not lost a game (3-0) since the Steelers’ loss.

Bengals coach Zac Taylor is terrible on the road against AFC North opponents – 3-11 SU and 7-7 ATS (Action Network).

This game could decide Tomlin’s fate in Pittsburgh. I’m backing Tomlin to rally the Steelers at least one more time.

San Francisco 49ers -5.5 (-113)

Against any other team, the play would be to back the Baltimore Ravens and take the points.

While Lamar Jackson is shaky as a favorite, he thrives as an underdog (11-2 ATS). The Ravens are 19-4 ATS as an underdog since 2018 (Action Network).

Going back even further, the Ravens are 45-30-3 (60%) as an underdog under John Harbaugh (BetGMG).

There is nothing flashy about the Ravens. They physically dominate their opponents and find ways to win. That formula is one of the reasons why Baltimore sits in first place in the AFC.

Baltimore is a great team, but the San Francisco 49ers are better.

When Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams are in the lineup, San Francisco rarely loses. The 49ers are 11-1 in 2023 when those three play. Their only loss came against Cleveland, a game where Samuel left the game.

Furthermore, the 49ers are 19-2 SU and 15-6 ATS when McCaffrey and Samuel start.

I haven’t even mentioned MVP candidate Brock Purdy and San Francisco’s elite defense. San Francisco is rolling, and as long McCaffrey-Samuel-Williams stay healthy, the 49ers can beat anyone, including the Ravens.

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