- Quarterbacks drafted in the top three picks in the last ten NFL drafts have been traded or released at a rate of 70%
- Just two of these QBs are living up to expectation – a success rate of 15%
- Panthers with reason to be concerned about Bryce Young’s slow start
Over the last ten NFL drafts drafting a quarterback at the top of the draft has proved a risky business. QBs drafted at one through three in the last ten NFL drafts are failing at a rate of 70%, with just 15% of them performing at or above expectation.
9 of 13 QBs Drafted Top-3 in Last 10 Drafts Cut or Traded
Over the last ten years, the allure of landing a quarterback prodigy in the top three draft picks has often turned into a tale of disappointment. A surprising 70% of quarterbacks picked in these prime spots have been traded or released. The lofty hopes tied to these young players seem to face a harsh reality check in the NFL arena.
Names like Mitchell Trubisky, Blake Bortles, and Sam Darnold stand out as warning signs, showcasing the potential pitfalls of such high draft picks.
Just 15% of QBs Drafted in Top 3 Picks Currently Meeting Expectations in NFL
Amidst the chaos of unfulfilled expectations, only two quarterbacks have broken the mold, showcasing success and living up to their draft hype. Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence serve as rare examples of hope in the often uncertain journey of early quarterback drafting.
Their achievements highlight what’s possible with accurate scouting and a supportive team environment. Yet, these success stories are far and few, emphasizing the risky nature of drafting quarterbacks so early.
While Kyler Murray and Zach Wilson are starters for the teams that drafted them, all is not quite what it seems. The Jets brought in Aaron Rodgers and had he been fit, Wilson would be on the bench. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray’s time at Arizona hasn’t quite lived up to expectations with rumors that the team has tried to trade the young quarterback.
Bryce Young’s Slow Start a Worry for the Panthers?
The recent draft saw the Carolina Panthers pinning their hopes on Bryce Young, a decision now being scrutinized given Young’s lackluster beginning in the NFL. His slow start is causing worry, bringing to light the continuous gamble teams take when drafting quarterbacks so high, especially given that they gave up so much draft capital to acquire the Alabama QB.
This leaves us asking if there should be reevaluation of drafting strategies, especially with the poor success rates observed over the last decade?
TSD Commentary
“The data from the last ten drafts is quite eye-opening and speaks volumes about the precarious nature of drafting quarterbacks so early,” says Nick Raffoul, Head of News at TheSportsDaily. “The stark 70% rate at which these high-picked quarterbacks have been traded or released is a glaring indicator of the risks involved. The minuscule 15% success rate further amplifies the narrative of uncertainty surrounding such crucial draft decisions.”
He continues, “Teams might need to explore alternate strategies to mitigate these risks. For instance, trading down from a high first-round pick if it involves a quarterback might be a viable strategy to consider. This could allow teams to amass more picks, and thereby, more talent, while potentially avoiding the pitfall of a failed quarterback selection.”
“The league is evolving and perhaps the traditional approach towards quarterback drafting needs a reevaluation. It’s a complex scenario with no easy solutions, but a discussion on alternative strategies could be the stepping stone towards more successful draft outcomes in the future,” Raffoul concludes.
Complete List of Quarterbacks Drafted in Top 3 of NFL Draft in Last 10 Years
- 2023 (Not included in analysis):
- Bryce Young (1st, Panthers)
- C.J. Stroud (2nd, Texans)
- 2022:
- (No quarterbacks drafted in the top three)
- 2021:
- Trevor Lawrence (1st, Jaguars) – Starting for Jaguars
- Zach Wilson (2nd, Jets) – Backup prior to Aaron Rodgers injury
- Trey Lance (3rd, 49ers) – Traded to Cowboys
- 2020:
- Joe Burrow (1st, Bengals) – Starting for Bengals
- 2019:
- Kyler Murray (1st, Cardinals) – Underperforming, trades previously been discussed
- 2018:
- Baker Mayfield (1st, Browns) – Traded to Panthers
- Sam Darnold (3rd, Jets) – Traded to Panthers
- 2017:
- Mitchell Trubisky (2nd, Bears) – Cut in 2021
- 2016:
- Jared Goff (1st, Rams) – Traded to Lions
- Carson Wentz (2nd, Eagles) – Traded to Colts
- 2015:
- Jameis Winston (1st, Buccaneers) – Cut in 2019
- Marcus Mariota (2nd, Titans) – Cut in 2019
- 2014:
- Blake Bortles (3rd, Jaguars) – Cut in 2018
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