Expectations for Chris Johnson, Part Four

In Part Three of this series we compared Chris Johnson’s first two seasons with those of other top backs and looked for the first time at yards from scrimmage.

CJ has gained 3,997 yards from scrimmage in his first two seasons, third best in NFL history. In this segment of the series, we’ll examine the careers of the 30 players with the most yards from scrimmage in their first two seasons.

The overall stats show that after peaking in year two, the average yards from scrimmage of the 30 players decreases every year. That does not mean, however, that CJ’s production is expected to decline.

Yards from scrimmage, Top 30 RBs in first two seasons

Rank	RB	1st 2 yrs	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10	Career
1	Eric Dickerson	4456	2212	2,244	1360	2026	1459	2036	1522	769	805	814	15,396
2	Edgerrin James	4442	2139	2303	855	1343	1551	2031	1843	1376	1426	599	15,610
3	Chris Johnson	3997	1488	2509									3,997
4	Billy Sims	3812	1924	1888	981	1459	926	0	0	0	0	0	7,178
5	Clinton Portis	3777	1872	1905	1550	1732	693	1651	1,705	551			11,659
6	LaDainian Tomlinson	3775	1603	2172	2370	1776	1832	2323	1949	1536	884		16,445
7	Ottis Anderson	3573	1913	1660	1763	693	1729	1785	704	374	22	265	13,335
8	Barry Sanders	3536	1,752	1784	1855	1577	1320	2166	1898	1700	2358	1780	18,190
9	Adrian Peterson	3494	1609	1885	1819								5,313
10	Jamal Lewis	3429	1660	1769	2271	1122	1097	1247	1552	1180	588	0	12,486
11	Marshall Faulk	3357	1804	1553	1015	1525	2227	2429	2189	2147	1490	1108	19,154
12	Terrell Davis	3332	1484	1848	2037	2225	237	286	770	0	0	0	8,887
13	Joe Cribbs	3300	1600	1700	732	1665	541	936	370	21	0	0	7,555
14	Earl Campbell	3289	1498	1791	1981	1532	668	1,517	495	731	0	0	10,213
15	Curtis Martin	3233	1748	1485	1456	1652	1723	1712	1833	1456	1570	1942	17,430
16	Herschel Walker	3180	1574	1606	2019	1338	1085	1029	1348	1356	1028	360	13,084
17	Domanick Williams	3158	1382	1776	1313	0	0	0	0				4,471
18	Matt Forte	3115	1715	1400									3,115
19	William Andrews	3096	1332	1764	2036	1076	2176	249	0	0	0	0	8,663
20	Gale Sayers	3052	1374	1678	1006	973	1148	46	38	0	0	0	6,263
21	Thurman Thomas	3002	1089	1913	1829	2038	2113	1702	1442	1225	1287	851	16,532
22	Eddie George	2993	1550	1443	1604	1762	1962	1218	1420	1194	515	0	12,668
23	Jerome Bettis	2991	1673	1318	743	1553	1775	1275	1201	1438	1120	723	15,111
24	Emmitt Smith	2986	1165	1821	2048	1900	1825	2148	1453	1308	1507	1516	21,579
25	Tony Dorsett	2983	1280	1703	1482	1448	1971	924	1608	1648	1756	1015	16,293
26	Frank Gore	2919	739	2180	1538	1409	1526						7,392
27	Abner Haynes	2850	1451	1399	1622	822	1259	382	784	446	0	0	8,165
28	Joseph Addai	2842	1406	1436	750	1164							4,756
29	Greg Bell	2836	1377	1459	519	182	1336	1222	171	0	0	0	6,266
30	Warrick Dunn	2810	1440	1370	1205	1555	1004	1304	1008	1400	1636	1310	15,306
	Average	3321	1562	1759	1491	1390	1353	1265	1092	911	782	558	11,416

As you can see, the players’ best season for average yards from scrimmage was their second. After peaking in year two, their average production in yards from scrimmage declined in every subsequent season. However, as we noted in Part Two, the great running backs have been able to sustain top-level productivity as rushers while the others have not.

There is a not dissimilar trend in yards from scrimmage which is contained in the following table. The data for the Hall of Fame RBs in the table above is repeated here. While LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin and Jerome Bettis are not yet in the Hall of Fame, there is little doubt in my mind they will be enshrined, most probably in their first year of eligibility. They are therefore included in this group.

Yards from scrimmage, Hall of Fame RBs in Top 30 in first two seasons

Rank	RB	1st 2 yrs	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10	Career
1	Eric Dickerson	4456	2212	2244	1360	2026	1459	2036	1522	769	805	814	15,396
6	LaDainian Tomlinson	3775	1603	2172	2370	1776	1832	2323	1949	1536	884		16,445
8	Barry Sanders	3536	1752	1784	1855	1577	1320	2166	1898	1700	2358	1780	18,190
11	Marshall Faulk	3357	1804	1553	1015	1525	2227	2429	2189	2147	1490	1108	19,154
14	Earl Campbell	3289	1498	1791	1981	1532	668	1517	495	731	0	0	10,213
15	Curtis Martin	3233	1748	1485	1456	1652	1723	1712	1833	1456	1570	1942	17,430
20	Gale Sayers	3052	1374	1678	1006	973	1148	46	38	0	0	0	6,263
21	Thurman Thomas	3002	1089	1913	1829	2038	2113	1702	1442	1225	1287	851	16,532
23	Jerome Bettis	2991	1673	1318	743	1553	1775	1275	1201	1438	1120	723	15,111
24	Emmitt Smith	2986	1165	1821	2048	1900	1825	2148	1453	1308	1507	1516	21,579
25	Tony Dorsett	2983	1280	1703	1482	1448	1971	924	1608	1648	1756	1015	16,293
	Average	3333	1563	1769	1559	1636	1642	1662	1421	1269	1162	975	15,691

Note that the average second season is once again the most productive, with a third-year dropoff, as it is among the entire population of the top 30 in yards gained from scrimmage in the first two seasons. However, the second most productive average season in this group is in year six!

It is also important to note that after the dropoff from year two to year three, there is an increase in average yards from scrimmage every year from years three through six.

Another point of interest is the number of league-leading seasons, which are indicated in boldface in the above tables. Hall of Famers (and those considered as such in this exercise) combined for eleven league-leading seasons in year three and beyond, compared to two seasons among other former players.

Not included in the above tables are years eleven and beyond. Six times a player has gained over 1,000 yards from scrimmage after his tenth year and as you might suspect, four of those seasons belong to Emmitt Smith. Marshall Faulk and Ottis Anderson each accomplished the feat one time.

The next table is for other former players who are not included in the Hall of Fame group.

Yards from scrimmage, active RBs in Top 30 in first two seasons

Rank	RB	1st 2 yrs	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Total
3	Chris Johnson	3997	1488	2509							3,997
5	Clinton Portis	3777	1872	1905	1550	1732	693	1651	1705	551	11,659
9	Adrian Peterson	3494	1609	1885	1819						5,313
18	Matt Forte	3115	1715	1400							3,115
26	Frank Gore	2919	739	2180	1538	1409	1526				7,392
28	Joseph Addai	2842	1406	1436	750	1164					4,756
	Average	3357	1472	1886	1414	1435	1110	1651	1705	551	6,039

Will CJ’s career production be similar to the Hall of Famers or the other backs?

The first table in this article, which showed CJ with the third most yards from scrimmage in his first two seasons, can be used to compare CJ’s production with that of all the other top 30 backs but doesn’t really provide any indication of future expectations. We can, however, compare CJ’s rookie year to second season increase with the increases made by others.

The following table shows that Frank Gore had the highest percent of increase, which is mathematically due to the low denominator in year one. (Gore spent his rookie season as Kevan Barlow’s backup and his touches were limited.)

Yards from scrimmage increase, year 1 to 2

RB	Yr 1	Yr 2	Increase
Frank Gore	739	2180	195.0%
Thurman Thomas	1089	1913	75.7%
Chris Johnson	1488	2509	68.6%
Emmitt Smith	1165	1821	56.3%
L. Tomlinson	1603	2172	35.5%
Tony Dorsett	1280	1703	33.0%

CJ’s 69% increase in yards from scrimmage from his first to second season is most similar to Hall of Fame RBs Thurman Thomas (76%) and Emmitt Smith (56%), which is pretty nice company to be in. CJ has also been in very good company in the other parts of this series, so if one is judged by the company he keeps, all indications are CJ is in very good position to have an outstanding career.

Most importantly, in my opinion, the overall increase in production from years three to six among Hall of Fame backs and their overall sustained production bode well for CJ. There is great reason to believe he can sustain his productivity for four more years.