2016 Pittsburgh Pirates projections – Sean Rodriguez

Sean Rodriguez returns to the Pirates in 2016, and we’ll see if he can improve offensively while remaining above average defensively.

This off-season the writers at Pirates Breakdown will take a look at two different sets of projections for meaningful players on the roster and give you, the readers, their take on whether or not they think said player will meet, surpass, or fall below those projections. The projections for Steamer and ZiPs (created by Dan Szymborski) can be found on fangraphs.com. Yesterday, Aaron Benedict looked at new addition Neftali Feliz. Today we’ll focus on super utility man Sean Rodriguez.

Water coolers, Gatorade containers, and all other refreshment vessels in the National League, you have been warned. Sean Rodriguez is back with the Pittsburgh Pirates for 2016. Each team, especially in the National League, needs to have a utility player on their roster, but not many excel in that role to the degree Rodriguez does. Last season, Rodriguez logged games at first base (102), third base (8), second base (7), shortstop (3) and in the outfield (29). He rarely started games, but his value came from being a defensive replacement late in games, especially for the much maligned Pedro Alvarez.

His appearances at the other spots in the infield and the outfield were key given that the team experienced many injuries last year. When Jung Ho Kang, Josh Harrison, and Jordy Mercer went down with injuries at various times, Rodriguez helped ease the burden due to his flexibility.

If there is a downside to Rodriguez, it’s that he is not much of a threat with the bat. He hasn’t batted over .250 since 2010 when he was with Tampa Bay, and even then he only hit .251. His OBP dropped 62 points from 2013 to 2014 and last year he barely got on base at just 28% of the time.

Let’s take a look at what Rodriguez did the last two years and what the projections see him doing in 2016:

Both ZiPS and Steamer see Rodriguez receiving more at-bats in 2016 than he did in 2015. If anything, I think he may have less during the upcoming campaign. He will be competing with Michael Morse and John Jaso for at-bats at first (before the eventual call-up of Josh Bell which will further crowd the position), the spot where he saw the majority of his playing time last season. Given that Jason Rogers can play both corner infield positions as well, Rodriguez could very well see less playing time than last season.

The projections believe that Rodriguez will hit more home runs next season than he did in 2015. Given that he is only two years removed from hitting 12 home runs, he very well could top the four home runs he connected on last season. Since Rodriguez’s playing time could be affected by the versatility of the other players on the roster, I would not be surprised if he only slugs four or five home runs next season. Anything over six would be a gift to the team.

In 2015 Rodriguez compiled a negative WAR, according to both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. ZiPS has Rodriguez finishing with a 0.2 WAR while Steamer sees him ending right on zero. Since WAR is affected by playing time, and Rodriguez is not an everyday starter and typically only sees action late in games, he does not have many opportunities to earn a high WAR. Now, if they could only come up with a stat that reflects the ability to pummel a Gatorade cooler, I have the utmost confidence that Rodriguez would be the league leader, or at the very least in the discussion.

Now I’ll turn it over to you, the readers. Will Rodriguez surpass the projections or fall short in 2016? Will he successfully destroy more water coolers in the upcoming season compared to last year? Let us know in the comments below!

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