Though I’m skeptical about the Mets’ postseason prospects, they are close enough that it made sense to trade for Jay Bruce. But what makes no sense is all the speculation that Bruce is insurance for Yoenis Cespedes opting out. The Mets have a pre-existing condition of offensive anemia, and this insurance plan will not cover it.
With Cespedes out of the lineup, the Mets’ 3-4-5 hitters last night were Neil Walker, Wilmer Flores and Travis d’Arnaud. They managed five runs only because Matt Reynolds hit an unlikely three-run homer.
According to Baseball Reference, the Mets’ total offensive WAR this season is 8.7, and Cespedes accounts for a third of it all by himself at 2.9. The only other Mets above 1.0 are Asdrubal Cabrera (1.4), Walker (1.1), and Flores (1.0). So Bruce’s 2.0 will come in handy.
What’s killed the Mets this year is the lack of expected production from Michael Conforto (0.1), d’Arnaud (- 0.1), and the injured Lucas Duda (0.1). Meanwhile, Noah Syndergaard is at 0.4 and Steven Matz is at 0.1. Bartolo Colon is at -0.2 but that still gives him a higher offensive WAR this season than Alejandro De Aza (-0.5).
Daniel Murphy, by the way, has an offensive WAR of 4.5, more than half the total of the whole Met team.
Even with Cespedes, the Mets will need more help next season. But they are already likely to lose Walker as a free agent. Not that Walker, who has been up and down this season, looks like a must-sign at this point, but the Mets just lost heir apparent Dilson Herrera in the Bruce trade. Even if Herrera does not turn into the next Michael Fulmer, the prospect who got away, Sandy Alderson is going to have to do better than the suggestion he made when he was interviewed during last night’s game – move Jose Reyes to second.
The jury is still out over whether Reyes even belongs in the starting lineup at this point, much less at another new position. (Squawker Lisa reminded me of when the Mets moved the young Reyes to second to make room for Kaz Matsui. It’s not easy being a Met fan!) And even in a best-case scenario where Reyes starts hitting and running and can handle second base, Alderson should remember Reyes’ reputation for being injury-prone. (Actually, it shouldn’t be to hard to remember, since he just went on the DL .)
As far as this year goes, though, the Mets are just 2 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot, with St. Louis half a game out. Pittsburgh is a game behind the Mets, but they were sellers at the deadline. Colorado is two games behind the Mets, but they have no more games against the Mets (they took six of seven). So I’m saying there’s a chance.
Finally, if Jon Niese was unhappy about last year’s defense, wait till he pitches in front of an outfield of mediocre or hobbling left fielders.
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