UFC Welterweight Championship: Kamaru Usman (c) (15-1) vs. Colby Covington (15-1)
Luke Irwin: After running his yap for years, here we finally are. Colby Covington fighting for what he believes is his birthright, the UFC Welterweight championship. Covington is coming off of a UFC record for significant strike attempts. He doesn’t want for pressure or activity. Both of these guys are insanely well-rounded and have a great wrestling base in case they get in trouble. I know it’s a cop-out, but the last time I picked a draw, it was Alexander Povetskin vs. Michael Hunter, and it turned out to be one, so that’s earned me a couple draws to play. Majority Draw.
UFC Featherweight Championship: Max Holloway (c) (21-4) vs. Alexander Volkanovsky (20-1)
Luke: Beating Jose Aldo is the equivalent of earning a whistle in Super Mario 3 and fighting the final boss. He’s as great of a gatekeeper as one can defeat. Volkanovsky is a tough-as-nails fighter, but it seems every freaking time Holloway defends his title, he’s going against a fighter “unlike any he’s seen”, or one that will be “a terrible matchup for him”. No, Holloway hasn’t faced many fighters with Volanovski’s skillset, but I’m comfortable enough betting that he can adapt, because, well, he always goddamned does. Holloway via R5 TKO.
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship: Amanda Nunes (c) (18-4) vs. Germaine de Randamie (9-3)
Luke: de Randamie suffered her first and only stoppage loss of her career in 2013 to Nunes, and that was before Nunes turned into a T-1000 and still took occasional losses to Sarah D’Alelio and Cat Zingano. I’m a little worried because the line is so low on this, but I believe in the Lioness. Nunes via R3 KO.
Bantamweight Bout: Jose Aldo (28-5) vs. Marlon Moraes (22-6-1)
Luke: The weight-cut is looking great! He’s Dillashaw-at-flyweight level right now. Moraes via R1 TKO.
Bantamweight Bout: Petr Yan (13-1) vs. Urijah Faber (35-10)
Luke: Faber held off the reaper with a miraculous KO of Ricky Simon. He won’t be so lucky this time. Yan via R1 TKO.