The Livest Dog at UFC 265: Jessica Penne

The Livest Dog at UFC 265: Jessica Penne

MMA Manifesto

The Livest Dog at UFC 265: Jessica Penne


Name: Jessica Penne

Opponent: Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Odds: +105 (bet $100 to win $105) **Odds by FanDuel

There was once a time when these two women were two of the very best challengers that the strawweight division had to offer. Penne saw a string of losses followed by a really long layoff. Kowalkiewicz, meanwhile, is still in the middle of said losing streak – albeit to some high-level talent. It’s that high-level talent that she’s lost to that I think has her installed as the favorite in this one, but there is a key reason why I think that is incorrect.

The main reason is that in both fighters’ skids, we saw some large errors in their game. Penne had a tendency to get away from her game plan and get out-boxed a bit. Kowalkiewicz’s takedown defense didn’t hold up. Since then, one of them has shown the ability to overcome that issue. Penne came out after being gone for 4 years and showed increased pressure and a solid ability to close the distance. On the other hand, I’m still concerned about what the takedown defense looks like for Kowalkiewicz. Since that does seem to be the area that Penne wants it, I like her here at dog money.


2021 Record: 7-15 (4 withdrawals)
Earnings (based on $100 bet/event): -($425)
Return on Investment: -15%

2018-20 Record: 45-72 (+1.1%)

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