The excitement over the signing of Edwin Encarnacion was well due. Averaging a WAR of over 4 since 2012, he was arguably the best available player in free agency for the Indians to sign and represents the kind of action that Cleveland fans have been waiting for from the Dolans for years. Combined with the trade for Andrew Miller, there has never been a clearer all in move in Indians history.
In Indians history, from the early 1990’s especially, the primary focus has always been on drafting/trading for young talent, developing them and keeping them as long as possible. Nearly all of the Indians largest contracts have been given to home grown players of one sort or another, but the Encarnacion deal, breaking the record amount given to Travis Hafner, shows how the Indians are not happy simply waiting by for everything to coincide at the perfect time.
For the 2017 season, this should turn into a truly incredible offensive experience, with great table setters like Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor followed by some real power in Encarnacion. With the pieces the Indians have, Terry Francona can move things around however he wants and he will still have at least six incredibly talented offensive performers at the top of his lineup.
One of these players will be 2016’s regular lead-off hitter and three win player, Carlos Santana. While he does it differently, Santana is comparable in value to Encarnacion, having averaged over 3 WAR since 2012 and peaking at 4.2 in 2013 (Edwin peaked at 5.0 in 2012). It may not be as sexy, but Santana’s greater walk rate, lower strike out rate and better base running has essentially equaled Encarnacion’s greater power over the years.
Of course, this isn’t a competition between new teammates. The pair should be even more prodigious in 2017 than Mike Napoli and Santana were in 2016 and Encarnacion likely has at least two or three more good years in him to follow that. The problem lies in Santana’s current contract situation and the effect of Encarnacion’s mega deal on the Indians roster.
Using Santana’s $12M option this off-season was the easiest decision the Indians had to make after the World Series, but it was only a short term measure. After the 2017, Santana will become a free agent and, in a normal situation, that would mean that the Indians would be talking to him about an extension right now. That is most likely not happening.
At just 32 years old for the 2018 season, Santana is not only a near equivalent to Encarnacion in production, but will be two years younger than EE was when he signed in Cleveland. Assuming another above average season in Cleveland in 2017, Santana is set to make at least Encarnacion money, possibly more and possibly for more years. Undoubtedly, this situation entered into the minds of Mike Chernoff and Chris Antonetti when negotiating with Encarnacion. They knew that to keep their first basemen, they would be spending $20M per year and taking a big risk, so why not spend that a year early and give the team an elevated chance of winning the World Series in 2017?
This they did and if you follow that line of thinking through, it almost certainly means that Santana’s 2017 season in Cleveland will be his last. As of now, the Indians have already guaranteed $67M for the 2018 season to just six players and will have 11 arbitration eligible players looking for raises (as of now). Some of these players the Indians would almost certainly like to extend, particularly Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer and Cody Allen and that process will likely be extremely expensive.
With the time missed due to injury from Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley, Santana has been the Indians single most consistent offensive producer since 2011 and he deserves his big pay day, but it just doesn’t make sense for the Indians to give it to him anymore. Encarnacion is now cemented into the 1B/DH spot through 2019 and because he can play a position, literally any decent offensive performer could fit into the DH half of that equation. That could be Yan Gomes, should he return to his original standard as a Silver Slugger or Michael Brantley, should the Indians use his 2018 option. It could be Nellie Rodriguez, Brandon Guyer or any of the Indians current starters should their defense degrade. It makes no sense at all for the Indians to extend Santana now or try to retain him in free agency for an extreme price, a move that would handicap their abilities to sign players in the future and completely remove any lineup flexibility.
If you have one $20M first baseman who’s age catches up to him, you can put him in a role similar to those given to Jason Giambi and Nick Swisher in recent seasons. It isn’t perfect, but it’s tolerable, especially if the Indians win the World Series before that happens. If you have two, you’re the 2016 New York Yankees with Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and a whole bunch of players who deserve to play sitting in wait. This is not to say that the Indians have many Major League quality hitters who will be barging at the door in 2019, that’s impossible to know right now, but Bobby Bradley has averaged a home run every 16 at bats so far in his MiLB career, Yu-Cheng Chang had 30 doubles and 11 steals last year and is essentially a man without a position, Anthony Santander might not be able to play outfield anymore and hit .290 with 62 extra base hits in Lynchburg and Francisco Mejia is considered by many to be the Indians number one prospect, playing a position held by a man signed with guaranteed money through 2019 (with two more option years after that) and the guy who hit two home runs in game one of the 2016 World Series. Between the entire Indians MiLB system, someone who needs to DH or play first will be ready by 2019.
There it lies. Those fans who have hated Santana for years for the same reason delusional Reds fans (and Marty Brennaman) hate Joey Votto should be happy to know his time in Cleveland is almost certainly at an end. For those more reasonable fans, it was almost certainly always either Encarnacion or Santana, but by signing the former with a year left of the latter, it gives the Indians the best possible chance they’ve had to win a World Series this century. We’ve been begging the Indians to go all in for decades. This is what it looks like and as the name implies, there’s always a risk involved.
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