The 2015 3rd-round pick for the Astros not being protected was a bit of a surprise, especially considering he is already 25 and the Astros appear to have a need for more pitchers after losing some to free agency and injury. Although he is only a reliever and he struggled with a 6.75 ERA in his limited time in AAA, Ferrell has shown off his stuff enough that many believe he has a future in the back end of a bullpen. His ability to control walks has been an issue so far in his professional career, especially in 2018 where he walked over 5 batters per 9 innings in his time in AA and AAA. On the bright side, prior to 2018, Fangraphs still rated his command as a future 50-grade, and his stuff is good enough to justify being ranked the 17th best prospect in the Astros farm by MLBPipeline.com. With a mid-90s fastball with life and a sharp slider to put away batters with 2 strikes, Ferrell will continue to strikeout even advanced hitters. Outside of his command, Ferrell needs to fix his problem for pitching to left-handed hitters. In 2018, they got against him.
As of now Ferrell already appears to be good enough to take a middle reliever role on a young team, but if he can develop his command and ability to pitch to left-handed hitters, we could be seeing Ferrell pitch in the 8th or even 9th inning in the near future. One interesting tidbit on Ferrell is that new Orioles’ GM Mike Elias was the one who drafted him, and the Orioles happen to have the 1st selection on December 13th.
Among the Astros minor leaguers left exposed to Rule 5: RHP Riley Ferrell, OF Drew Ferguson and SS Jonathan Arauz. Ferrell & Ferguson were drafted by Mike Elias, whose Orioles have the top pick.
— Jake Kaplan (@jakemkaplan) November 20, 2018
Similarly to Ferrell, Jay is expected to be selected as a reliever, and may even follow Ferrell by becoming more of a 2-pitch pitcher in the MLB. The difference is that Jay was originally a starting pitcher (and the #6 overall pick in the 2015 draft) who converted to a reliever after dealing with injuries in 2016 and 2017. The former Top 100 prospect has yet to pitch in AAA, and he did not dominate AA even as a reliever, but he has shown the stuff and pitchability that will force teams to look further into his ability. There is a chance that Jay’s above average fastball and nasty curveball are able to miss enough bats to make Jay fit into the backend of a bullpen. If not, the .663 OPS left-handers hit against him in 2018 show that he could at least fit in as a left-handed specialist. It’s clear that Jay will no longer meet the ceiling he once had, but a ceiling of a significant bullpen piece is still very much a possibility.
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