(Photo/SB Nation)
11: Alshon Jeffery
If you have Alshon Jeffery you are undoubtedly putting him in your lineup. This is not only because he’s an amazing, go up and get it, talent but also because you aren’t sure how long the tenuous hamstrings of this AllStar will last. He’ll be facing a Wattless Texans defense, that finished second in the league, but began 2015 on shaky feet. I find it unlikely that they’ll be ready to pick up where they left off without JJ pressuring Smokin’ Jay. It is also worth mentioning that Jeffery may be enjoying the divided attention of this defense’s secondary as a result of the debut of one Kevin White.
12: Allen Robinson
A talent of this measure can only disappoint as a result of unattainable expectations. Perhaps not the expectations of his own talent, but that of his quarterback, Blake Bortles. While the Packers’ passing defense was only slightly above average, the most notable change may be the return of high-powered offense, along with Jordy Nelson, to the cheese heads. And so, likely in a late game hole we find the Jaguars. A situation in which they are all too comfortable. And, a situation in which Mr. Robinson and his illustrious QB have been known to shine.
13: Demaryius Thomas
The primary dispersion cast against this perennial 1,000 yd receiver is the uncertainty of a team in transition. Although we may not be certain who will be under center, it will not be Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler. In 2015 Denver QB had a combined QB rating below 50. In 2014 Mark Sanchez had a QBR of 59, making Sanchez a potential improvement. There is also the narrative of the Kubiak run-centric offense. In 2015, the Broncos passed 59% of the time. Kubiak’s 2014 Ravens offense passed on 55% of plays. In 2013 Houston’s Kubiak offense stepped back and flung it 60% of the time. The point being, the Denver offense is not turning into the Minnesota offense. I don’t see any reason why this quietly great talent can’t repeat his 2015 campaign numbers. Another significant development is the fact that facing DMT, we do not find Josh Norman in this week 1 Super Bowl rematch. While the Carolina defense is still likely to be a strong unit, I’m not shying away from Thomas in his 2016 debut.
14: Mike Evans
In 2015 this second year receiver was paired with a rookie QB, and not a healthy Vincent Jackson. The story of his drop count is well known, but how many of those were really catchable? My eye gravitates to the fact that the offensive scheme did not shy away from him. The targets, including redzone targets were still there. At a minimum the opportunity for Evans to take a big step forward exists, having invested in a year of team building. In week 1 they face a Falcons defense that has made strides under coordinator Dan Quinn, and handed the Panthers their only regular season loss. I’m looking forward to seeing where this up-and-coming offense will begin its 2016 expedition.
15: Jeremy Maclin
When Maclin came to Kansas City from the Eagles the question seemed to be whether or not Maclin’s abilities fit into an offense centered around the run and generational talent Jamaal Charles. The answer has been a resounding “Yes”! However, the Chiefs have not lost their identity and in the absence of Charles last year, actually ran the ball more. With his return, and exit of OC Doug Pederson, the Chiefs may be a more pass friendly unit. This provides an opportunity for Mr. Maclin. With even a modest increase in targets from his 2015 totals, #19 could be in WR1 territory. The Week 1 matchup with San Diego provides a great stage for Alex Smith to counter his ever cautious ways and throw over a defense preoccupied with Charles to the awaiting arms of Jeremy Maclin.
16: Sammy Watkins
While there are a litany of great things to say about this talent, his 17.4 yards per target,1047 yds in a less than prolific offense, & his amazing body control, there are an equal or greater list of detractors on the situation side of the ball. None of the other WR’s on this list are having to enlist the national media in their campaign to get targets. In fact, the things we like about Sammy seem to be the sort of stats that cut both ways. According to playerprofiler.com Watkins’ Efficiency stats are unparalleled. He is #1 in terms of yards per target, #2 in fantasy points per target, and again #2 in terms of production premium, showing that even compared to other players in his offense he’s making the most of his opportunities. Conversely, he is 30th in terms of pass plays and #42 in terms of snap rate, which speaks to the other problem with Sammy (health). Watkins’ Bills face the Ravens in Week 1 and a passing defense that ended the year being sneaky good, allowing 4.2 less fantasy points to WR’s compared to their averages.
17: TY Hilton
“TwoHundred Yard Hilton” is on a short list of 3rd round WR’s that don’t make my face twitch when I think of slotting them as the potential WR1 on my team. That is because the questions around him, and the resulting ADP, have little to do with him as a player. His quarterback suffered a lacerated kidney, which seemed to be going around somehow last season, and was much closer to his Stafford like floor than his Favre like ceiling. The Indianapolis offense is another offense in flux, but I’m optimistic about the range of possible outcomes. The Colts sent a pass catching TE to New Orleans, freeing up targets. And, they seem to have an emerging possession type wide receiver in Donte Moncrief. In 3-wide sets defenses will also be forced to try to keep a lid on field stretching Phillip Dorsett. I think this is a case of weapons helping weapons, and if the Colts have the better QB on the field when they face the aforementioned Matt Stafford and the Detroit Lions, it should be the start of a great season.
18: Eric Decker
While the re-signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick, and his beard, were certainly a positive for Decker and company, I think it may be naive to hope every 7th catch will be a TD. On the other hand 78 TD’s per season seems to be the floor. We are,after all, talking about a guy who has caught 8,13,5,11,& 12 TD’s by season with some less than G.O.A.T. level QB’s (Vick, Geno Smith, and Tebow). In addition to that, if his colleague Brandon Marshall has any chance of keeping his car and outpacing Antonio, Decker will have a role to play. Also, in his favor we have an offensive scheme that likes to throw the ball in the redzone and was good at it, ranking 3rd in TD scoring percentage. I’m bullish on Decker, but his Week 1 matchup against the Bengals is less than great. Someone is going to score and I’m not ready to bet against Decker.
19: Jarvis Landry
When Ryan Tannehill hears a strange sound in the middle of night, he thinks of Jarvis Landry to make himself feel better. While this 3rd year receiver doesn’t posses thrilling measurables, he does certainly know how to get open and hauled in 110 catches in 2016. He also played in nearly 100% of his team’s offensive snaps. In addition to seeing a massive 167 targets, he gets just over 30% of his team’s redzone targets. His week 1 matchup against the Seahawks is a bit discouraging, but Seattle’s Scroogelike defense was much harder on opposing RB’s than WR’s. Landry’s game is as sustainable as tourism in Miami and the more pressure Tannehill is under, the more likely he may be to pull up the Landry security blanket.
20: Amari Cooper
Cooper seems to be the player, and I can understand why to an extent, that makes people the most willing to overlook numbers based comparisons in order to validate their opinions that he is a transcendent NFL talent. And he may be, but let’s not overlook for a moment. He had some drops, 10 to be exact, according to sportingcharts.com. However, his counterpart Michael Crabtree was also high on the list. More troubling is the fact that he isn’t targeted like we might expect a WR1, getting only 21.6% of his team’s targets. It’s less in the redzone, dropping to 13.6%. And, overall he is targeted less than the team’s #2 receiver, Michael Crabtree. Some of this is due to a foot injury that is hopefully that’s in the past. The eyeball test tells us there’s more here, that we haven’t seen the best version of Amari just yet. Perhaps in week 1 the Saints defense will be able to pull it out of him, as they did with many of their opponents in 2015.
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