The Indians didn’t completely run wild on Jon Lester in game one, but still came through against the Cubs ace scoring three early before putting the game away later on against the bullpen. Wednesday night, it will be Jake Arrieta, the Cubs top pitcher and NL Cy Young winner in 2015, trying to keep the Indians at bay.
During the season, the Indians were consistently better against right handed pitchers (.763 OPS) than left handers (.748 OPS), but they matched up particularly well against Lester given their penchant for hitting to all fields and being aggressive on the bases.
Jake Arrieta – 18-8, 3.10 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 3.52 FIP
The Indians have only faced Arrieta once, but it was last year so most of the roster was around already. In a way, it was this start that launched his Cy Young campaign as he came out of that game with a 3.40, then went 16-1 (Cubs went 18-2) with a 0.86 ERA and 47 K’s in 47 innings over his final 20 games. As for that game against Cleveland, it was his last allowing four runs or more in the season as he allowed just three hits, but walked a season high six.
Whether this success in just limited opportunities last season means anything is up to debate, but the fact is Terry Francona uses a much stronger line-up against right handers than left handers. With Carlos Santana leading off, it not only gets the Indians most patient hitter more at bats, but also moves Jose Ramirez up to fifth instead of sixth. Given that Jason Kipnis is like a completely different player against righties as well, it’s almost a completely different order against right handers and much improved.
This year’s version of Arrieta is also a complete change from the last time the two teams faced off. In particular, his pinpoint control has disappeared as he lead the NL with 16 wild pitches (a career high by 8) and had career highs in walks (76) and hit batters (6) while seeing his K rate drop. Arrieta still doesn’t give up hits and lead the NL in hits per nine, but with the extremely patient Indians line-up, particularly Santana, Mike Napoli and Roberto Perez, this could be a surprisingly favorable match-up for the Indians hitters.
Trevor Bauer & Friends
Bauer’s last appearance ended up being a win against the Blue Jays, but his participation was very short lived as he faced just four batters. After a Troy Tulowitzki foul ball, the stitches on Bauer’s right pinky ripped and he was forced to leave the game dripping blood from his hand.
He has since had more than a week to heal and this game should be less of a test for Bauer. Even so, the Indians bullpen is even more ready than last time with Danny Salazar, Mike Clevinger and Ryan Merritt each in the bullpen ready to go about three innings. Kluber’s short start in game one (just 88 pitches in 6+ innings) leads more credence to the idea that he will be the game four starter, so if Bauer needs to be pulled early due to injury or lack of performance, there is absolutely no reason not to go with one of the three former starters.
Given his success against Toronto and the Cubs’ left handed heavy top of the line-up, Merritt should be the first choice out. Winning this game would be huge for the Tribe, so expect Francona to manage it similarly to every other game he has so far, meaning he may be reluctant to use Clevinger or the untested Salazar in a close game. With Andrew Miller setting a new season high in pitches thrown in game one, don’t expect multiple innings out of the Indians not-so-secret weapon, but Dan Otero, Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen could all pitch for more than three outs if necessary.
Chance of Rain
Major League Baseball was concerned enough about rain tonight that they moved the game up an hour from 8:08 PM ET to the normal regular season start time of 7:08 PM. While it does appear they will be able to at least start on time, if the game goes long like it did last night, it could definitely be a factor. MLB has suspended games in the past, finishing game five of the 2008 World Series between the Rays and Phillies two days after it was originally scheduled and later, a rule was made that all post-season games would be finished in their entirety at the field they were originally scheduled. There is an off-day Thursday, so they could make it up a day later without harming the rest of the series, but getting an early lead would be a huge advantage. This could ultimately be an advantage to the Tribe as Miller could be saved for the later innings, possibly giving him a full extra day of rest.
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