You are thinking about Byron Buxton more than the Twins

Various Twins bloggers and fans have already released their offseason “plans” for the team this year. Never mind that there are questions over the viability of the season, given the current labor tensions between the league and players, these forecasts are mostly wish lists, and a lot of the moves are impractical or unlikely.

Players and other teams have a say in what goes on, and it’s never so easy to make a trade or a signing as anyone wants it to be. For most teams, the right move is based on a consensus or majority opinion in the board room, where dozens of people might have an input in the process. We don’t know all the details that organizations are privy to, even as we have the stats and game knowledge that might rival theirs. (In some cases, anyways)

One trend that keeps showing up, and it makes sense, is the signing of Byron Buxton, or rather signing him to an extension. Priority A #1, for sure, pull out all the stops. Some forecast potential salaries, and years with a degree of certainty that is commendable, especially given the bits of contract negotiation news we have received.

To wit, I thought, and many others did as well, that the Twins would have to reach 100m for a deal with Buxton to work. I thought, given the price placed on contracts per win above replacement, the annual value would have to be about 20 million a year, given his 3 wins he has been good for, even when factoring injuries. I’ve been more player friendly, but even team friendly thinkers were blown away when the most recent offer turned out to be 80 million over 7 years, an annual value of less than what the Twins were paying Michael Pineda. And Buxton seemed fine with it, and they said it was a matter of incentives.

This is simply a long way to say that none of us have any idea what’s going on there. These are negotiations and a relationship that have been ongoing for years. Either the Twins think they will sign him, or are sure they will not. I can’t imagine that this is a matter of “urgency” as we are led to believe.

The relationship with Buxton is between one team and one player, with a lot fewer variables. The attempt to add pitching will involve 29 other teams, and countless free agents. If there is any urgency, it will be there, with the pursuit of more hurlers. Little to this offseason is dependent on whether or not Buxton extends his stay in Minnesota, because the Twins probably already know what is going to happen.