Seat Index: Which NBA Coaches are on the Hot Seat?

NBA coaches are almost always in danger of losing their jobs after a poor season. Which ones should be most worried heading into the season?

Training camp hasn’t even started for NBA teams, and already the seats are heating up.

Every year the question is raised: which NBA coaches are on the hot seat? That is, which NBA coaches are in the most danger of losing their jobs either during or after this season? To answer that, I broke out my own “Seat Index”.

The Seat Index looks at a variety of factors to determine how toasty a coach’s bottom should be entering the season. Things like regular season wins, playoff success, career body of work, and length of tenure are taken into account. From the team side, the Seat Index also evaluates that franchise’s “trigger finger” and how quick they are to move on from coaches.

Finally, the expectations placed on a team by either its management or fans plays a part as well. If a team is supposed to be bad and they’re bad, that’s better for a coach’s chances than if they were expected to make the playoffs and then had a poor season. Last year Jason Kidd survived such a situation, but Randy Wittman, Kevin McHale, and Derek Fisher did not.

This is a valuable endeavor for two reasons: the first is that it’s entertaining, the second because of how much coaching changes affect the NBA landscape. Last year 12 of the 30 teams fired their head coaches; that means 12 new systems, coaching staffs, and personalities stalking the sidelines. In the new NBA, expectations are high and consequences are brutal.

Each head coach will be ranked from “1” – a pleasantly cool seat – to “10” – black leather in a black car on an August afternoon in Texas. The Seat Index will play a bit conservative before the season starts; if a team was hovering over the big red button for a coach in September, they would have fired him in May. When we revisit the Seat Index in February – and especially in April – things may be at the boiling point.

Beginning at the bottom, whose seats are the coldest entering the season?

No Need to Sweat

1 – Steve Kerr, Gregg Popovich, Brad Stevens

These coaches are at the perfect juncture in their current positions. They are beloved by fans, have a great relationship with ownership, and have seen constant success since taking over as head coaches. Even a trainwreck season couldn’t result in a lost job.

2 – Tyronn Lue, Doc Rivers, Tom Thibodeau, Stan Van Gundy

Lue doesn’t have the pedigree or the track record to join the first group, but after winning a title he’s not going anywhere. The other three combine career pedigree with front office power, making their dismissal just that much more unlikely. Barring disaster, none of these coaches are going anywhere.

3 – Quin Snyder, Terry Stotts, Luke Walton

Snyder and Stotts play for small market teams with talented young cores, and even if their teams fail to meet expectations they have strong relationships with their front offices and shouldn’t need to worry. Walton is a hometown hero returning to Los Angeles, and the Lakers’ low expectations should ensure he keeps his job no matter the outcome.

Secure, But Not Immune

4 – Steve Clifford, Jason Kidd, Brett Brown, Kenny Atkinson, Frank Vogel, Billy Donovan, Steve Brooks, Mike Malone, Rick Carlisle

This group of coaches shouldn’t be worrying about their jobs, but worst-case scenarios could see action taken. Coaches like Clifford and Carlisle have seen success at their current jobs, but after losing talent they are an injury or two away from bottoming out this season. New coaches in uncertain locations should be fine for at least another year, but nothing is ever certain in the NBA. Brown and Malone coach teams with low expectations, but a failure to make any progress could warm things up.

5 – Erik Spoelstra, Nate McMillan, Mike Budenholzer, Earl Watson, Dave Fizdale

Spoelstra has two rings to his name, more than anyone not in group 1. But the Heat are going to tumble down the standings this year, and Pat Riley could look to any part of the franchise to shake things up. Bud is well entrenched in Atlanta, but their inability to break through could cost him his job one of these years. McMillan, Watson, and Fizdale all enter jobs with uneven – or nonexistent – track records and impatient front office’s. None are in danger yet, but the wrong kind of season will shoot them up the Seat Index.

Uncomfortably Warm

6 – Dwane Casey, Dave Joerger

Casey is coming off of the best season in Toronto Raptors history, and he took his team to the Eastern Conference Finals. So why is his seat warm? Because now that Toronto has tasted success, they want more. And when expectations are high, failure heats the seat up lightning fast. If DeMar DeRozan takes a step backwards as many expect, Valanciunas doesn’t take a step forward, and Boston passes them in the standings, things could get dicey. A first-round playoff exit could spell doom for the Casey era.

On the other side of the country, Joerger has the unfortunate pleasure of sitting down in the perpetually heated seat of Sacramento. The Kings have the quickest draw in the league, meaning Joerger – and his eventual successors – will never be safe. There is optimism that he can reach Cousins and pull this squad together. But if the Kings wallow in mediocrity yet again and the franchise is forced to deal Cousins, it’s likely Joerger goes as well for another Sacramento reset.

Toasted Buns

7 – Fred Hoiberg

Fred Hoiberg was one of the most sought after coaches in college, sure to see instant success with his NBA-ready offensive system. Chicago hired him as a laid back, offensive-minded foil to the intensity of Tom Thibodeau. It turns out the Bulls need a little bit of intensity, as last season they were inconsistent, injured, and generally incompetent. Heading into their “bounce back” season, Chicago added a trio of players in Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo, and Robin Lopez that seem poor fits for Hoiberg’s pace-and-space system.

There is a very real chance that the new-look (read: old and injury-prone look) Bulls are going to be very bad this season. Rondo, Wade, and Jimmy Butler combined to make only 133 3-pointers last season. The competition for best shooter on the roster is a dead heat between a power forward, a rookie, and the head coach. It’s a recipe for disaster without even considering the likelihood that their core misses a significant number of games.

If the Bulls miss out on the playoffs again, there is little doubt that Fred Hoiberg will be packing his bags and heading back to the college ranks. It’s likely Chicago then pursues a coach with more pedigree – perhaps Jeff Van Gundy, arguably the top name not to secure a position this offseason. Having the two Van Gundy brothers in the same division would be a treat for the entire NBA. Other possibilities include Jim Boylen (currently an assistant with the Bulls) and Dave Joerger (see above).

7 – Jeff Hornacek

It’s unusual for first-year head coaches to so quickly be on the hot seat, but Hornacek’s chair has been warm since he arrived. Team President Phil Jackson has created a situation that will bear close monitoring all season long. By keeping his personal disciple – and Triangle devotee – Kurt Rambis on the New York staff, Jackson retains the option at any point to fire Hornacek and put back into place “his guy”.

The possibilities do not end there. Jackson has an opt-out clause in his contract after this season, and many around the league suspect he may exercise it and return to Los Angeles to save the rudderless Lakers. With his longtime girlfriend Jeanie Buss poised to take over primary direction, he could join her – and another disciple, Luke Walton – in righting the purple and gold. With a new front office in New York in such a scenario, Hornacek’s job would be anything but secure.

These options are on the table even before considering the balance of high expectations in the Big Apple. With Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, and Courtney Lee joining Carmelo Anthony in New York, the team and its fan base expect great things. But it’s hard to see this group of players making waves in the East unless Kristaps Porzingis takes a gigantic step forward – and this team stays unnaturally healthy.

If Hornacek is helming a team that misses the playoffs then his job could also be forfeited, no matter Phil’s actions. Although he saw quick success in Phoenix, he also displayed an inability to control his locker room or connect with players. All of this works against his chances of longevity in New York. He has the coaching talent to surprise, but too many forces are opposing him for any confidence at this juncture.

If Phil pulls the rope during the season, then Kurt Rambis will again take over as interim coach – and could stay put this time if Phil stays in New York. If Jackson leaves and Hornacek is knocked out as well, the options expand. Patrick Ewing is one of the most popular Knicks in team history, and he has been gaining support for a head coaching role after serving as an assistant for many years. Kevin Ollie, Jarron Collins, and Jay Wright could all be considered as well.

Boiling Point

8 – Alvin Gentry

As I mentioned in a piece last week on the Pelicans, Gentry and his coaching staff enter this season in a moment of tension. After entering last season with sky-high expectations, they crashed spectacularly amidst an untenable rash of injuries. While few coaches could have succeeded in such a situation, Gentry and top defensive assistant Darren Erman were unable to make a positive impact in any area of the Pelicans’ game.

While expectations are muted somewhat this season, the onus is still on Gentry to deliver on some promises. The concept of a run-and-gun offense with Anthony Davis sprinting at the basket is a terrifying concept, but it was rarely executed last year. With Jrue Holiday set to miss the start of the season to take care of his wife while she recovers from brain surgery and Tyreke Evans not yet ready to return from injury, Gentry is already starting off with a handicap. He has to get his unproven backup guards up to speed, and quickly.

If Anthony Davis explodes for the MVP-caliber season we hoped for last year, then Gentry is most likely safe. If this team makes the playoffs, then he is absolutely safe. But the writing is on the wall for Gentry and he needs to produce, and quickly, or he may not make it to the All-Star break. Erman would be a popular pick to replace him, but if the defense looks as bad this year as they did last year, he may go first.

Jeff Van Gundy would be a popular choice to replace Gentry – he not only has a strong track record overall, he has experience developing and deploying elite big men. Nate Tibbetts, an assistant with Portland, is a player’s coach who is well respected around the league. Finally, the Pelicans would be a top candidate for a proven coach who is let go this offseason, someone such as Joerger, Clifford, or Casey if things go south for them.

In the end, the Seat Index tells us nothing. Those coaches with the warmest bottoms could see success and have things cool off quickly. Other coaches with seemingly secure situations could have behind-closed-doors tensions turning up the heat that we cannot see. But it does allow us to watch games and narratives with a close eye, and give our best guesses as to who is on their way out. And for coaches in The Windy City, The Big Apple, and The Big Easy, no one should be sitting comfortably.