The Oklahoma City Thunder lost a superstar this offseason, and their replacement plan is just coming together. Should they expect to fall hard, or can they strike a note of optimism for the future?
On July 4th, 2016, this country celebrated its 240th birthday, and Kevin Durant announced that he was leaving the Oklahoma City Thunder to join the Golden State Warriors. The shockwaves were violent and immediate as the basketball community came to grips with the implications. The Warriors were fielding a super-team, and the Thunder had lost the biggest star in their brief franchise history.
The loss of a star can have various effects on a cast, crew, or team. Sometimes a talented replacement is waiting and ready to step up into a larger role – that was the transition football fans witnessed with the Green Bay Packers. Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre retired (eventually) and his replacement, Aaron Rodgers, has since won the NFL’s MVP award two separate times.
Other times the void cannot possibly be filled, although the team still achieves success. Famed writer and producer Aaron Sorkin created the standout television show “The West Wing” and served as head writer for the first four seasons. Fans will argue over whether the show took a downturn after that point, but no replacement writers were going to be able to have the multi-level impact on the show that Sorkin did. The San Antonio Spurs may feel some of the same things this season after the retirement of Tim Duncan.
The third response is generally not chosen, but often the unavoidable result: a complete inability to recover. The Cleveland Cavaliers won an average of 64 games over LeBron James’ final two seasons prior to leaving for Miami; they won an average of 20 games the first two seasons without him. The Office was a beloved sitcom for years, with a quirky cast led by comedian and actor Steve Carell. When Carell left, the show took a sharp turn for the worst despite the efforts of its other talented cast members.
The Oklahoma City Thunder need to decide which of the above routes applies to them, because all three are at least a possibility. Will they become an even better team than the one Durant left? Will his departure cause the wheels to come off? Or do the Thunder end up somewhere in the middle?
Route 1: Better Than Ever – 10 percent chance
This option came back into play when Russell Westbrook signed a two-year extension to stay with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Many are predicting a monster season from Westbrook, where he unleashes his wrath on the league and proves he is nobody’s sidekick. A Robin becoming Nightwing, Kelsey Grammer starting Frasier sort of move.
Supporting him in this role would need to be the wing player who is going to replace Durant’s production. In this scenario, Victor Oladipo would be the candidate to take a major leap. Likewise a former second overall pick, Oladipo has length and playmaking skills that leave the door open for a rise to stardom.
This best-case scenario for the Thunder would see Steven Adams becoming an All-Star next season, providing elite-level rim protection while putting up double-doubles with regularity. The fourth-year player who already looks like a character from Game of Thrones will need to be every bit as ruthless in being the linchpin for a dominant defense.
On offense, Enes Kanter is a max-salary player who will be called upon to unleash his diverse offensive skillset on opposing bench units. If Kanter can improve his defensive instincts and preparation over the offseason, the “Twin Towers” lineups that were effective against the San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs could become a regular fixture for the Thunder.
Kevin Durant was a unique talent, one of the three best players in the world, and he left the Thunder without providing them any compensation. If everything clicks for Oklahoma City, they could build a team that competes for titles. Russell Westbrook is a superstar, Adams and Oladipo have that sort of talent, and Billy Donovan showed the league during the playoffs he is a really good coach.
But this outcome is relatively unlikely, as other parts of the roster are considered (namely the entire small forward rotation). What is a more likely path?
Route 2: Completely Falling Apart – 25 percent chance
Two seasons ago, the dark-horse title favorite Thunder lost nearly every rotation player to injury during the season. Kevin Durant played in only 27 games, and between them Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, and Adams missed 45 contests. Despite Westbrook’s herculean efforts they fell short of making the playoffs.
Simplifying things to “The Thunder miss the playoffs without Durant” is a misstep. Not only is the roster different than it was two seasons ago, but the Thunder have young talent that developed over that timeframe as well. This team does not have to settle for missing the playoffs.
But it is certainly a possibility. Durant’s void on the wing has no obvious candidate waiting to fill it. If the Thunder start Andre Roberson, they can replicate Durant’s defense, length, and rebounding. On offense, the step down is gargantuan.
Another option is Kyle Singler, who signed a five-year contract last July with the Thunder and promptly fell off of a cliff. Forced to be a rotation player in the regular season due to a lack of options, Singler rated as worse than replacement level. The former Duke star saw success in Detroit, but couldn’t find the spark in Oklahoma City.
Steven Adams and Victor Oladipo both have plenty of potential, but neither has officially made “the leap” yet, so banking on that to happen could leave Thunder fans disappointed. Alex Abrines was their biggest offseason signing, and he can’t crack the rotation for the Spanish National Team in Rio. If Westbrook gets injured, second-year player Cameron Payne would have the weight of the team on his shoulders.
The Western Conference got better this offseason, and last season’s lottery teams have playoff aspirations. The Utah Jazz seem all but guaranteed a spot in the playoffs this year; who will they replace in the field? New Orleans, Denver, and Minnesota all have their eyes set on the playoffs. Could the Thunder see any or all of those squads pass them by?
The Thunder’s roster is stronger now than it was two seasons ago when Durant was out, so it certainly isn’t likely that the Thunder fall apart and become a candidate for the top picks in the draft. But that possibility is there, as Durant is leaving big shoes to fill.
Route 3: New Look, Similar Success – 65 percent chance
Kevin Durant is clearly irreplaceable, but the Thunder may not try to replace him. Instead coach Billy Donovan and his staff will try to find the best rotation and style of play to maximize the players who still wear Thunder uniforms. If they succeed, the Thunder can host another playoff series next Spring.
Regardless of the rest of the league, Russell Westbrook will be an MVP-candidate next season, barring injury. He is going to rank among the league leaders in scoring, assists, and steals. Draymond Green will most likely have to bow out of the triple-double race, leaving Westbrook the sole champion. The usual holes poked in his game are not enough to stop him from dominating while on the court.
Around him, the Thunder can assemble an offense of moving parts, where screens and cuts open up passing lanes for Westbrook to his open players. His timing with Steven Adams is already incredible, and will only grow with time. How a defense plans to stop a Westbrook-Adams pick-and-roll as both spring down the lane is a terrifying exercise.
Kyle Singler and Alex Abrines cannot replace Kevin Durant, but they do have talent that could make them solid parts of the rotation. Cameron Payne and Domantis Sabonis are young players with upside to grow into something more. The Thunder have options to grow on both ends of the court.
Without Durant, the Thunder’s ceiling is clearly reduced. His length and skillset formed a lethal combination, one that cannot be replicated with one or two replacements. But if the ceiling has lowered, the floor doesn’t have to drop out in turn. Westbrook, Adams, and the rest of this roster have a lot of talent and pride, and the most likely outcome is that the Oklahoma City Thunder comfortably make the playoffs next year.
If the Thunder and Warriors find themselves matched up come playoff-time? Now that would be excellent television.
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